The misadventures of AUKUS robot AlboGov never cease. I publish on subs, other naval,
nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are glacial: talk rather than actual new subs. The 1st Collins LOTE may secretly concern the US Combat System & be ready 2029. Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs right through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C and Gessler are excellent writers. Pete.
September 23, 2023
Ukrainian Missile Hits Russia's Crimea Fleet HQ
On 22 Sept, new Ukrainian missile strike makes Russia's cost of aggression, that much more expensive.
I was wondering why Ukraine would 'waste' a finite and valuable resource as a SCALP/Storm Shadow on what is seen, on first glance, as a politically symbolic statement. This HQ building has been attacked before by UAF drones, so the Russians can't conceivably be so stupid to keep using it right?
I am incorrect on all counts.
The AFU used at least two cruise missiles, perhaps three missiles hit the building. This BBC article shows the second missile impacting:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66887524
This missile attack was carried out in the middle of the day - there were kids swimming in the nearby bays. The use of Storm Shadow's BROACH multistage warhead enables the Storm Shadow to be programmed as a blast or penetrator, so this was a classic 'double tap' attack that was publicly seen for the first time in the first Gulf War, where Iraqis had C&C bunkers buried under buildings. The first weapon 'blasted' the HQ building, maximizing the lethality of the second penetrator round.
It's now obvious that the AFU Intelligence knew that there were high value targets in a command bunker under the building. https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1705344634128380206
The Ukrainian military had remarkably accurate intelligence that Russian Generals were in the command bunker. https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1705344634128380206
I hazard a guess that some non-Ukrainian intel services have been assisting Ukraine's remarkably successful anti-Russian targeting efforts region wide.
It is called ELINT/SiGINT Crimea is poorly located vs Rom/Bulg/Ukraine airspace Satellites ? Humint as well.. Fiber links problematic with most of the bridges even partially destroyerd
Lavrov complained that Russia is fighting the West, with Ukraine as ‘fodder’.
But Russia miscalculated that they could steamroll Ukraine in three days, even in the face of very obvious Western backing and arms shipments to Ukraine.
Undertrained soldiers against highly motivated partisans always have one outcome, especially when the partisans in question have an abundance of antitank weapons.
Now the bloody front line grinds Russian peasants from small villages in Siberia, while the Moscow elites sit in their apartments, which has been the same outcome, wether Russia is controlled by Royalty, Communist or Oligarchs.
Ukraine Intelligence likely has a direct feed from NATO intelligence sources, I’m only surprised that they have excellent HUMINT within Russia as I thought Putin neutered his internal opposition.
Looks like the Ukrainians got their timing right. The Russian Admiral commanding their Black Seas Fleet was killed, along with 32 other officers. Ouch! https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-33-other-officers-killed-in-sevastopol-strike/
Given how effective Stormshadow/SCALP is proving, I can't help wondering if it would make a useful interim capability for Australia's Collins Class subs? It looks like with no sub-launched Tomahawks still in production we won't be able to fit them to Collins. SCALP/MdCN has a sub launched version that could do the job. Stealthy, range 1000km, 300kg warhead. That sure beats old Harpoons.
Collins Class sub HMS Farncombe had a fire at sea last month. Obviously this could have been fatal. Farncombe is 25 years old. If everything in AUKUS goes perfectly, these subs have another 15 years in the water before replacement. This is becoming a national embarrassment. I hope it does not become a national tragedy. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-26/collins-class-submarine-on-board-electrical-fire-at-sea/102899290
HMS Farncombe has had a troubled history which may be relevant to the age problem and fire in August 2023 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-26/collins-class-submarine-on-board-electrical-fire-at-sea/102899290 you identified.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#Propulsion_system cites Yule & Woolner, The Collins Class Submarine Story, p. 233 along the lines:
"Propeller shaft seals were a significant problem on Collins and FARNCOMB.[96] Although designed to allow for a leak of 10 litres...per hour, during trials it was found that the seals would regularly misalign and allow hundreds of litres per hour into the boat—during one deep diving test the flow rate was measured at approximately 1,000 litres (220 imp gal; 260 US gal) a minute.[96]"
Comment: Water, especially salty seawater, can damage the wire plastics, copper and other metals of electricals for years until a submarine is scrapped. Rusted/corroded moving electrical parts and fuzed wires can cause FIRES years after water contact.
Another relevant Farncomb entry is at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#Operational_history
"Farncomb was docked for repair after a generator malfunction in February 2010"
Seawater via the faulty seal may have impacted the Farncomb's generator (or the generator for other reasons) might have caused the extra docking, repairs and flown in spares problems identified at
"In September last year, the Navy denied reports that HMAS Farncomb had been "stranded' in Hawaii while technicians were flown out from Australia to conduct repairs." and
"In December Indonesian military observers noted that HMAS Farncomb had remained moored in Surabaya for several days longer than planned, with a Royal Australian Air Force transport plane picking up "spare materials" belonging to the submarine in January."
This BBC article https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66887524 with a VIDEO showing the sound and vision of the second STORM SHADOW missile impacting is very rare because it captures the missile that was probably moving too fast for the human eye (without benefit of camera) to see.
Hi Anonymouses at 9/24/2023 7:44 PM and 9/26/2023 1:12 AM and Shawn at 9/24/2023 8:51 PM
Even without any outside Western intelligence assistance...
Such would be Russians citizens' disenchantment with Putin's endless bloody war that good sources for Ukrainian Intelligence might be Russian conversations in clear over landlines/mobiles in Russia itself, in Russian held territory in eastern Ukraine and in Crimea
with many bemoaning the fact that Putin's lackeys, Russian Admirals and Generals, were to have a major conference at a certain date/time in the bunker below the Crimean HQ hit by the 2 missiles.
https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-33-other-officers-killed-in-sevastopol-strike/ is particularly useful showing the level of detail Ukraine gathers.
++++++++++++++++
The best, most quickly modified (if needed) AUSTRALIAN platforms for STORMSHADOWS might be our F-35As used against Chinese warships (or FUTURE Chinese military installations in the Solomons and East Timor) threatening Australia.
Ukraine is doing far better in the air/missile strike war than in the ground war
The Kyiv Independent website "newspaper" goes into considerable written detail to describe the very small pocket of light blue territory (arond Robotyne)
see MAP at https://kyivindependent.com/overcoming-setbacks-nato-trained-brigade-breaches-surovikin-line-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/
recaptured in Ukraine's unfortunatly generally unsuccessful Summer Counter-offensive.
I was wondering why Ukraine would 'waste' a finite and valuable resource as a SCALP/Storm Shadow on what is seen, on first glance, as a politically symbolic statement. This HQ building has been attacked before by UAF drones, so the Russians can't conceivably be so stupid to keep using it right?
ReplyDeleteI am incorrect on all counts.
The AFU used at least two cruise missiles, perhaps three missiles hit the building. This BBC article shows the second missile impacting:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66887524
This missile attack was carried out in the middle of the day - there were kids swimming in the nearby bays. The use of Storm Shadow's BROACH multistage warhead enables the Storm Shadow to be programmed as a blast or penetrator, so this was a classic 'double tap' attack that was publicly seen for the first time in the first Gulf War, where Iraqis had C&C bunkers buried under buildings. The first weapon 'blasted' the HQ building, maximizing the lethality of the second penetrator round.
It's now obvious that the AFU Intelligence knew that there were high value targets in a command bunker under the building. https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1705344634128380206
Thanks Shawn
ReplyDeleteThe Ukrainian military had remarkably accurate intelligence that Russian Generals were in the command bunker. https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1705344634128380206
I hazard a guess that some non-Ukrainian intel services have been assisting Ukraine's remarkably successful anti-Russian targeting efforts region wide.
Regards Pete
It is called ELINT/SiGINT
ReplyDeleteCrimea is poorly located vs Rom/Bulg/Ukraine airspace
Satellites ?
Humint as well..
Fiber links problematic with most of the bridges even partially destroyerd
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteLavrov complained that Russia is fighting the West, with Ukraine as ‘fodder’.
But Russia miscalculated that they could steamroll Ukraine in three days, even in the face of very obvious Western backing and arms shipments to Ukraine.
Undertrained soldiers against highly motivated partisans always have one outcome, especially when the partisans in question have an abundance of antitank weapons.
Now the bloody front line grinds Russian peasants from small villages in Siberia, while the Moscow elites sit in their apartments, which has been the same outcome, wether Russia is controlled by Royalty, Communist or Oligarchs.
Ukraine Intelligence likely has a direct feed from NATO intelligence sources, I’m only surprised that they have excellent HUMINT within Russia as I thought Putin neutered his internal opposition.
Looks like the Ukrainians got their timing right. The Russian Admiral commanding their Black Seas Fleet was killed, along with 32 other officers. Ouch!
ReplyDeletehttps://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-33-other-officers-killed-in-sevastopol-strike/
Given how effective Stormshadow/SCALP is proving, I can't help wondering if it would make a useful interim capability for Australia's Collins Class subs? It looks like with no sub-launched Tomahawks still in production we won't be able to fit them to Collins. SCALP/MdCN has a sub launched version that could do the job. Stealthy, range 1000km, 300kg warhead. That sure beats old Harpoons.
Collins Class sub HMS Farncombe had a fire at sea last month. Obviously this could have been fatal. Farncombe is 25 years old. If everything in AUKUS goes perfectly, these subs have another 15 years in the water before replacement. This is becoming a national embarrassment. I hope it does not become a national tragedy.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-26/collins-class-submarine-on-board-electrical-fire-at-sea/102899290
Hi Anonymous at 9/26/2023 11:23 AM
ReplyDeleteHMS Farncombe has had a troubled history which may be relevant to the age problem and fire in August 2023 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-26/collins-class-submarine-on-board-electrical-fire-at-sea/102899290 you identified.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#Propulsion_system cites Yule & Woolner, The Collins Class Submarine Story, p. 233 along the lines:
"Propeller shaft seals were a significant problem on Collins and FARNCOMB.[96] Although designed to allow for a leak of 10 litres...per hour, during trials it was found that the seals would regularly misalign and allow hundreds of litres per hour into the boat—during one deep diving test the flow rate was measured at approximately 1,000 litres (220 imp gal; 260 US gal) a minute.[96]"
Comment: Water, especially salty seawater, can damage the wire plastics, copper and other metals of electricals for years until a submarine is scrapped. Rusted/corroded moving electrical parts and fuzed wires can cause FIRES years after water contact.
Another relevant Farncomb entry is at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#Operational_history
"Farncomb was docked for repair after a generator malfunction in February 2010"
Seawater via the faulty seal may have impacted the Farncomb's generator (or the generator for other reasons) might have caused the extra docking, repairs and flown in spares problems identified at
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-26/collins-class-submarine-on-board-electrical-fire-at-sea/102899290
"In September last year, the Navy denied reports that HMAS Farncomb had been "stranded' in Hawaii while technicians were flown out from Australia to conduct repairs." and
"In December Indonesian military observers noted that HMAS Farncomb had remained moored in Surabaya for several days longer than planned, with a Royal Australian Air Force transport plane picking up "spare materials" belonging to the submarine in January."
Regards Pete
Hi again Shawn at 9/23/2023 6:18 PM
ReplyDeleteThis BBC article https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66887524 with a VIDEO showing the sound and vision of the second STORM SHADOW missile impacting is very rare because it captures the missile that was probably moving too fast for the human eye (without benefit of camera) to see.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymouses at 9/24/2023 7:44 PM and 9/26/2023 1:12 AM and Shawn at 9/24/2023 8:51 PM
ReplyDeleteEven without any outside Western intelligence assistance...
Such would be Russians citizens' disenchantment with Putin's endless bloody war that good sources for Ukrainian Intelligence might be Russian conversations in clear over landlines/mobiles in Russia itself, in Russian held territory in eastern Ukraine and in Crimea
with many bemoaning the fact that Putin's lackeys, Russian Admirals and Generals, were to have a major conference at a certain date/time in the bunker below the Crimean HQ hit by the 2 missiles.
https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-black-sea-fleet-commander-33-other-officers-killed-in-sevastopol-strike/ is particularly useful showing the level of detail Ukraine gathers.
++++++++++++++++
The best, most quickly modified (if needed) AUSTRALIAN platforms for STORMSHADOWS might be our F-35As used against Chinese warships (or FUTURE Chinese military installations in the Solomons and East Timor) threatening Australia.
Regards Pete
Ukraine is doing far better in the air/missile strike war than in the ground war
ReplyDeleteThe Kyiv Independent website "newspaper" goes into considerable written detail to describe the very small pocket of light blue territory (arond Robotyne)
see MAP at https://kyivindependent.com/overcoming-setbacks-nato-trained-brigade-breaches-surovikin-line-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/
recaptured in Ukraine's unfortunatly generally unsuccessful Summer Counter-offensive.
No end in sight.
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeletewhile a bit off topic, I want to bring this to your attention.
https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202309250007
But maybe you already working on some post about it. ;-)
The critics already talk it to pieces.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202309/1298869.shtml
For me, the most interesting thin is that they were able to build that even ahead of the once planed schedule.
Greetings,
Sascha