In response to Grampa Jim's July 23, 2023 post:
I think the extreme Australian and US investment in making Virginias for Australia a reality would make Australia more of an essential ally for the US.
ie. Australia would be more the essential ally in peacetime, conventional wartime and even in a nuclear war. This might work to overide isolationist trends in US politics.Also emerging hypersonic missile technology could make Australian Virginias small but critical platforms that could carry nuclear tipped hypersonic missiles to deter China. Submarines are the best means of nuclear deterrence. I would call these Australian subs "Submarines Hypersonic Missile Nuclear propelled (SSHNs)."
Conventional subs like Japan's Taigeis (and indeed the Collins) are of declining value in Australia's Indonesian Archipelago Straits and South China Sea critical mission areas. This is because China's fixed and mobile anti-submarine acoustic sensors are becoming more effective in detecting when conventional subs run their diesels in those areas.
Also such conventional subs are too slow to combat the more capable Chinese navy, air and rocket forces.
I think if Australia is unwillling to turn to submarine nuclear weapons then after the Collins life extension (LOTEs) keep Collins going through to the late 2030s, XLUUVs or XL-AUVs are Australia's submarine future. These XLUUVs include the RAN's Anduril GHOST SHARK project.
Why thanks for the response !! It makes sense now for sure especially
ReplyDeletethe fixed & mobile anti-sub detection devices. In such an environmnt
Indonesia's new Nagapasa subs would be nearly useless :-( No wonder
Indonesia is stalling and looking into other options.
What about Germany's u212 and its non-magnetic hull ?
I had read that the Taigei could go down to 600 meters, and that most
detection devices were useless beyond 400 meters, but I'm no expert.
Thanks again !! Im just a curious amateur, USN veteran
Hi Grampa at 7/24/2023 3:30 AM
ReplyDeleteI think Germany's U212's would make the same racket when they run their diesels as the Nagapasa U209s. China is not only deploying more sensitive acoustic sensors but is geared to mass produce them cheaply.
Japan's Taigeis has longer lasting Lithium batteries and (as you mention) can dive to 600m so at a higher cost would be more discrete subs.
Japan's later model Soryus and South Korea's KSS-III Batch 2s have AIP and Lithium batteries so would be the quietest conventional subs available.
So many buying considerations!
Cheers Pete
The 209s, Scorpenes, any future 218s, 212 derivatives etc will face a simple fact in the SCS.
ReplyDeleteThe SCS is a shallow sea and the chinese have bugged the damned sea floor with sensors already
Here is a helpful extract from good ol' USN on the SCS,
"Nearly half its seabed is continental shelf in water depths less than 650 feet; a single deep basin with several depths to more than 16,400 feet makes up only 16 percent of the South China Sea."
Site:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/january/south-china-sea-complex-and-changing#:~:text=Nearly%20half%20its%20seabed%20is,of%20the%20South%20China%20Sea.
650 feet is roughly 210-220 m, while very quiet subs could have a chance, 200 m is in 70-80% of SCS makes it prime territory for using expendable UUVs and USVs. The PLAN will face the same problem Aussie or other nations subs will face...shallow seas...ocean floor sensors can ping and get the readings of even Li-AIP subs crawling at 2 knots at 150 m.
If war breaks out no Taigei/Soryu/U212 is going to survive for long against the giant dragnet the PLAN will activate no holds barred. On the other hand, the Yuans...even the so called 'ultra quiet' Type 039Ds might not be invincible....
Lastly.... I think any RAN Virginia would have to be an SSGN that can fire hypersonic missiles if need be....
We have discussed this since 2015...if the fat falls into the fire...then the Quad will need a mix of USVs, UUVs, XLUUVs, Manned special mission midget subs, AIP-Li SSKs and SSGNs along with surface fleet and Naval Air arm with P-8 MPAs, E-2D AEWs, MH-60R ASW, EA-18Gs, F-35s and Sea Guardian MQ-9s capable of EW, LRSTOW launch....plus the ability to knock out Yao Gan and other Chinese military satellites to blind the PLAN and PLAAF.
We either go all in or risk a solid pasting in the first island and second island chains.
This Tom Clancyesque fleet thingy is no more a joke... 50 Type-54 frigates with 40 VLS each, 30 plus Type 052Ds with 80 VLS each and 15-20 Type 055 cruisers with 128-144 VLS each...plus 70 SSN and SSKs with a combined missile capability 400-500 VLS equivalent.... as china ages and economically feels the pinch...trust them to find an outlet by picking a quarrel just as they did with India in 1959-60 in the middle of the great leap forward disaster...
Thanks Ghalib
ReplyDeleteI'll turn your 7/24/2023 11:08 PM info into an article tomorrow.
Regards Pete
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteTo Ghalib
On depths in the SCS: not as simple .There is a collection of intervconnected bassins linked by deep valleys.These data are clearly the results of close to 100 years of bathymretric data collected by the British, US, French ,Dutch ,Japanese ,and now Chinese, Navies
Most of these data are kept secret
https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_HER_176_0025--charting-submarine-routes-in-southeast.htm?contenu=article
On magnetic detection: you detect at very close range(certainly less than a mile at most) magnetic abnormality vs the background..The volcanic ares in the SCS are very different from the Mag uniformity found in the North sea or the Baltic
Most subs as well as surface ships have a reduced Mag signature through zlectrical devices
Thanks Anonymous at 7/25/2023 4:26 PM
ReplyDeleteI'll use your comments and https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_HER_176_0025--charting-submarine-routes-in-southeast.htm?contenu=article for a separate article.
What you describe includes the non-acoustic aspects of what the USN once called "Fixed, [densely] Distributed Systems (FDS)" https://irp.fas.org/program/collect/fds.htm#:~:text=The%20Fixed%20Distributed%20System%20(FDS,fleet%20and%20national%20command%20authorities.
As well as dense clusters of acoustic sensors in narrows (including what you call "deep valleys" or undersea canyons there are many old (magnetic anomaly) and new technologies that can detect any submarine if cued correctly. These inclde lasers/LIDAR, micro wavelength water penetrating radar, radiation trace detectors, strobe LED to follow a sub's progress, unusual water or wake movement detectors and many others classified.
The USN has no doubt replaced FDS with new acronyms.
Cheers Pete
"lasers/LIDAR, micro wavelength water penetrating radar, radiation trace detectors, strobe LED to follow a sub's progress, unusual water or wake movement detectors and many others classified"
ReplyDeleteI'm sure we're laying these devices en masse as well, and so any mass
movement of PLAN ships would certainly be detected and maybe vulnerable
to sea floor weapons such as NexGen captor mines, which we should be
giving to Taiwan by the tanker load
Thanks Grampa at 7/25/2023 10:01 PM
ReplyDeleteYes probably the US, other NATO countries, India, Japan, Taiwan and Australia, etc are very much into the sensor laying and perhaps activate pre-laid mines in time of war business.
Here is a post I wrote in 2021 https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/08/india-and-other-quads-tracking-chinese.html that gives some pointers on sensor activities in the Indo-Pacific.
Australia, as it relies totally on refined oil from Singapore (and Auistralia has only low strategic oil stocks) would be a big loser in any war with China. Chinese SSNs and Yuans would quickly block trade going through the Malacca Strait and other Indonesian archipelago straits.
NO AUSSIE VIRGINIAs THANKS
I see any purchase price of $250 Billion Australian for 3 to 5 Virginias as a compulsory "invitation" to join the US in a war against China over Taiwan. This is an pricey "invitation" Australia should reject.
Australia would be better placed to rely on XLUUVs and/or build UK designed SSN-AUKUSs in the late 2040s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN-AUKUS
Regards Pete
If my aunty had a moustache she would be my uncle....unless Uncle Sam puts some serious financial and technical muscle creating another SSN line designed to both help the USN get back to Reagan era sub numbers and supporting Australia/Canada at the same time... we will all be talking till the proverbial cows come home.
ReplyDeleteThe new SSN line could push out one SSN every 12-14 months with alternating delivery to the USN, Australia and if need be Canada/any other US ally deemed worthy, this won't fly...
Grampa Jim and Anonymous in the other post are very correct....traditionally the rulers of china have only respected the serious chance of major power being used against them....distended yaps like mongrel pups won't deter....only a menacing combined growl will elicit grudging agreements from Beijing to not push their envelope carte blanche.....
Hi GhalibKabir at 7/26/2023 9:06 PM
ReplyDeleteWithout the created wartime emergency in SSN building that occured before and during Reagan's rule the high present cost and shortage of SSN building labor will not increase SSN production enough to free up Virginias for Australia. The higher priority of Columbia production is also drawing off any available, highly skilled US labor.
Even if available the USN's SSN shortage would make Virginias for the RAN much more expensive than currently projected by the Australian Government.
Also China's increasing SSN and SSBN (with JL-3s) quality and quantity would soak even a 3rd Virg assembly line for USN priority use.
I don't think Canada is a serious factor in the SSN issue.
"Traditionally the rulers of china" Do fight immediate neighbours like India and even Russia 1969 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict
I think there is basically no history of China behaving in the US/European/Australian/Japanese pattern of fighting intercontinental Expeditionary Wars.
Once China has nuclear aircraft carrier groups China may become more US-like Expeditionary.
China respects the force of alliances prepared to fight against it just like any Great/Super Powers in history.
Cheers Pete