Virginias for Australia Hard Politically for Biden.

In response to French Anonymous’ comment of March 16, 2023. 

US politicians or US officials with a US naval background, part representing the USN's position, seem wholey or mainly? absent from last weeks' Virginias to Australia  issue. The US DoD, represented by Doctor Mara E. Karlin (see my article here) vaguely talks of  "used" and "new" Virginias. Her impact would be greater if she had spent career time in the US Navy or at least US military.  

This vagueness suggests Biden, the US DoD, USN, US State Department and Congress have not yet settled their differences on supplying Virginias to Australia.

The US Congress (House and Senate) can develop/pass Federal Laws to ban the export of sensitive arms technology, as it did with the ban on F-22 exports. Such laws, if any, could prevent the US State Department’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) regime from exporting Virginia hardware technology to Australia.

In terms of Congress's ability to block Virginia exports it is significant that President Biden has even less influence in the new 2023-2015 118th Congress than is usual for US Presidents.

 See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress: 

"In the 2022 midterm elections, the Republicans won control of the House for the first time since the 115th Congress, [the House Speaker Kevin McCarthy overall appears to be a Trump supporter. Biden is very unpopular with Republican House Representatives and with the Republican voters who appoint them.] 

"while the Democrats gained one seat in the Senate, giving them a 51–49 majority (with a caucus of 48 Democrats and three independents)."

Vice President Kamala Harris, is Senate President, a rather tokenistic political lightweight "At 28%, Harris had the lowest approval rating of any modern VP". She may be unable to sway the Senate to support President Biden’s Virginia intention.

French Anonymous' comment is true that “Aus does not have that much choice” other than seeking SSNs from the US. The UK cannot provide new Astutes because the UK has higher build 4 x Dreadnought-class SSBNs priorities until the late 2030s.

Australia has not sought SSNs from France. Also President Macron has restricted himself to reaffirming France can still supply Attack-class diesel-electric subs to Australia. While Macron seems to be implying whole Barracuda SSNs (reactors and all) to Australia are not up for negotiation, due to tensions with China and proliferation in the Indo-Pacific concerns. Even more significantly France's limited submarine building workforce has 5 Barracuda SSNs for its own navy to complete, throughout the 2020s, to replace the aging Rubis-class SSNs. Also France must complete 4 x 3rd Generation SSBNs (SNLE 3Gs) in the 2030s before it can even contemplate building SSNs for export.  

On the Virginias to Australia issue Biden’s affirmative action appointments probably won’t hold sway against rising, hard-nosed USN submarine Admirals who on the whole seem to oppose Virginias for Australia. Such Admirals will have the ear of a Republican Majority House that can launch legislation to block Virginia exports to Australia.