December 10, 2022

Japan in Future "JAUKUS"? : F-35 Exchange.

Australia's government owned ABC News, December 9/10, 2022, reports in part:

"Australia's 'indispensable' partnership with Japan could see it join AUKUS pact as strategic links grow"

[Australian] Defence Minister Richard Marles has sent a clear signal that Australia would like Japan to be included in the AUKUS pact [with Japan it might be called "JAUKUS"] with the United States and the United Kingdom, declaring that security ties between [Japan] and [Australia] were becoming "indispensable".

Both countries have also committed to more complex and sophisticated defence exercises, including potentially rotating Japanese F-35 fighter jets in Australia in the future, in another sign of strategic convergence between the two countries.

Mr Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong met with their Japanese counterparts, Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi in Tokyo on [December 9, 2022] for their annual meeting dubbed the 'two-plus-two'.

[Sources claim] there is no chance that Japan will look to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under JAUKUS, Australian officials have made it clear that [Japan] could be included in separate work under [JAUKUS] develop advanced defence technology capabilities. 

…[Defence Minister Marles] “said both countries had "benefited from the United States' network of alliances" but were now "poised to build the Japan-Australia relationship as a powerful force in its own right" — citing two landmark security pacts signed this year.

This included the Reciprocal Access Agreement, which will allow reciprocal access for defence personnel to conduct joint military training and missions.

"The Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation and the Reciprocal Access Agreement mean we now have the road map to take our partnership to a very different place — a better place," he said.

"Our partnership is becoming indispensable."

This deepening relationship was at a time when China was embarking on the "largest military build-up since World War 2"…Marles said. 

"This is the most significant factor shaping the strategic landscape in which Australia, and Japan exist." 

RAAF's F-35s to Japan for exercises

The joint statement from the defence and foreign ministers of both countries commits both nations to "accelerating the consideration" of bringing Japan's F-35s to Australia "with an eye to future rotational deployment of Japan's fighters including F-35s in Australia".

It also points out that Royal Australian Air Force F-35s will go to Japan next year for the first time to participate in military exercises.

The joint statement says both countries also want to discuss "enhancing the complexity of Japan Self Defence Forces' participation in Exercise Talisman Sabre" — a major multilateral training exercise in northern Australia.

It also flags conducting "submarine search and rescue training between the [Japanese Navy] and the Royal Australian Navy" as well as "amphibious operations, exercises and guided weapon live-fire drills".



(Standing left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defence Minister Richard Marles with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada, in Tokyo for 'two-plus-two' talks on December 9, 2022. 

28 comments:

  1. Kishida orders five-year defense budget worth 43 trillion yen (156% of current five-year budget).

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  2. How do You feel about the version that the UK and USA are preparing Australia like Noah's Ark for themselves - in case of a catastrophe in the Northern Hemisphere? Build infrastructure, relocate businesses, etc.

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  3. Today, Masahisa Sato, Chief Secretary of the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) National Defense Parliamentary League said that defense budget hike in Japan would provide drastic change of its defense system.

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  4. Thanks Anonymous @Dec 10, 2022, 5:17:00 PM and @Dec 11, 2022, 11:56:00 AM

    A good time to increase the Japanese Defence Budget.

    Not only is China a threat to Japan but Russia and, of course, North Korea are threats.

    Regards Pete

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  5. Thanks Igor @Dec 11, 2022, 5:00:00 AM

    Actually confidential orders for UK nuclear submarine Captains do reportedly instruct that if the Northern Hemisphere (including UK) is nuclear destroyed, then UK subs should move to Australia (specifically Fleet Base West (FBW) near Perth).

    Probably US orders are similar, although the US has many more bases with nuclear sub infrastructure.

    Overall it would be good for the UK and US to build nuclear sub infrastructure at FBW.

    Thankyou also for your video https://youtu.be/RyU99BCNRuU in which you name is pronounced "I-gor" not "EE-gor".

    Regards Pete

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  6. Thanks for Your answer, Pete! But I had in mind not only the relocation of the SSN, but the mass exodus of the Anglo-Saxons from the north to Australia ...
    Video is great! By the way, there was a film from the 70s about Australia after the atomic war...

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  7. Hi Igor @Dec 11, 2022, 6:57:00 PM

    Yes equally in a nuclear war if all Russian bases were destroyed your SSNs might need to relocated to India or Vietnam. Cuba would probably not be an option as it would be "quarantined" by the USN.

    Glad you liked the video.

    On "there was a film from the 70s about Australia after the atomic war..."

    Actually that was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(1959_film)

    "On the Beach" "a 1959 American post-apocalyptic science fiction drama film from United Artists, produced and directed by Stanley Kramer, that stars Gregory Peck, Ava Gardner, Fred Astaire, and Anthony Perkins. This black-and-white film is based on Nevil Shute's 1957 novel of the same name depicting the aftermath of a nuclear war."

    Part of the plot is:

    "In 1964, World War III devastated the Northern Hemisphere, killing all humans there due to nuclear fallout. The only habitable areas are in the far reaches of the Southern Hemisphere, but air currents are slowly carrying the fallout south.

    Australian survivors detect an incomprehensible Morse code signal coming from the West Coast of the United States. The American nuclear submarine USS Sawfish, now under Royal Australian Navy command, is ordered to sail north to locate the source of the signal...."

    I wish you a Merry Christmas (though not Putin).

    Regards Pete

    P.S. Submarine Matters received a visit from the "Moskva, Federal Guard Service Of The Russian Federation IP No.[I won't reveal] on December 9, 2022" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Protective_Service_(Russia)

    I hope they're friendly...

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  8. You have a lot of readers from different places - that's not bad! ;-)) No, another movie - late 70s or early 80s - an American sailor escapes from a ship in Australia before the war. I don't remember the film name... Russia should not focus on SSBN, there are other options - I wrote about them on my blog... It's too early for Western Christmas, especially for Russian (January 7)

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  9. Pete

    We all remember Shute’s book and fears of nuclear winter at the time. Since then atmospheric modelling has gotten a lot better and we now know that there is comparatively little mixing of the northern and southern hemisphere atmospheres. So a nuclear war in the northern hemisphere, while devastating there, would not wipe out people or crops in the south. So those sub orders would make a lot of sense.

    Some recent studies have concluded that in the event of an all out war Argentina and Australia are probably the most survivable places on earth. Both are self sufficient in food and resources and would not face a nuclear winter. FBW could become a very popular place!
    https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/nuclear-war-winter-australia/

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  10. Hi Igor @Dec 11, 2022, 8:44:00 PM

    Well the folks at Moskva "security" will be glad to know you're not officially writing from Russia

    OR

    perhaps spoofing from Greece?

    What do you think about Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

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  11. Pete

    The full study of nuclear war impacts led by Rutgers is here.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0.pdf?pdf=button%20sticky

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  12. I bought a house in Greece, just completed the paperwork. I was born in the USSR / Greater Russia - the current success of the West's policy towards Russia when Russians kill Russians before was unimaginable! This is their success...

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  13. Hi Anonymous @Dec 11, 2022, 8:49:00 PM

    Thanks for https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/nuclear-war-winter-australia/ of August 16, 2022 with the comforting title

    "A nuclear war could starve five billion people – but Australians might survive"

    If the "large regional conflict" it mentions includes "a war between the USA and Russia, with additional attacks on France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and China."

    then Russia and/or China might save some MIRVs for Pine Gap, North West Cape (WA), Fleet Base West (near Perth).

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/nuclear-war-winter-australia/ seems to concentrate on soot thrown up in the atmosphere

    but radiation carried in the atmosphere and ocean currents are also killers we in Australia should worry about.

    Also if Russia does have Status-6 very large nuclear armed "torpedos" of perhaps 10 megaton yield https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System then one (placed in the "right" place) could trigger a Tsunami off the US Pacific West coast that might also impact Australia's East coast.

    All not good.

    Regards Pete

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  14. Yes, everything is very bad - and there is no positive way out... Yes, Australia is unlikely to stand aside, but Africa and South America can. By the way, Montevideo is a great city!

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  15. Hi Igor at Dec 11, 2022, 9:48:00 PM and Dec 12, 2022, 12:44:00 AM

    Your website titled "Everyman's Notes: history teaches us that no one teaches the lessons of history" at https://nosikot.ru/ looks interesting.

    As its in .html right-clicking mouse permits "Translate to English" eg. viewers could see "The Military Imbalance in the Taiwan Strait" at https://nosikot.ru/sootnoshenie-sil-v-rajone-tajvanskogo-proliva/

    Greece sounds better. Always warmer than Russia. More freedom and no war, no Putin.

    Australia would indeed remain allied to the US in a WW3. While other Southern Hemisphere middle powers might be neutral eg. South Africa, Argentina, Chile, Brazil and little Uruguay (capital Montevideo "a great city!" :)

    You speak truth! The Russian Orthodox Christmas is January 7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_in_Russia

    Cheers Pete

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  16. Hi Anonymous @Dec 11, 2022, 9:40:00 PM

    The Rutgers study https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0.pdf?pdf=button%20sticky

    seems to limit itself to a reduction of solar radiation due to soot thrown up by nuclear war. In that sense it may be akin to a very bad case of volcanic ash thrown up over millenia with years without "summer" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer effecting crop production.

    BUT what the Rutgers study lacks is

    1. the impact of nuclear weapons radioactive fallout carried in the soot, in fresh and seawater and remaining in the farm soil and broader surface. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fallout

    2. Catastrophic supply chain disruptions. Not just semi-conductors but more immediately

    Medications that I assume are overwhelmingly produced in the Northern Hemisphere (in India, US and Europe, etc) and might take years to duplicate, even reinvent processes, in Southern Hemisphere factories.

    3. Australia gets 90%? of its refined petrol products from the Northern Hemisphere. Maybe taking years to duplicate Singapore's refinery output? And our strategic supply is in the US, I hear.

    And many other things Rutgers doesn't touch on.

    Regards Pete

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  17. Yes, Greece is warmer, but the humidity in winter just kills - worse than in St. Petersburg ...
    Regarding Taiwan - I wrote that there will be no war in the foreseeable future. And - yes - Australia is an integral part of the Anglo-Saxon global confederation

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  18. Hi Igor @Dec 12, 2022, 7:08:00 PM

    I'm lucky. Where I am has almost perfect weather. But this is attracting too many people. So the property rates/taxes are rising quickly.

    Yeah, maybe Xi will wait till his next 5 year term, after 2027, when China may have clear regional superiority (including 1,000 nuke weapons to deter US) to take over Taiwan.

    The "Anglo-Saxon global confederation" is:

    - culturally called the "Anglosphere" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglosphere

    and

    - alliance (with military and intel aspects) the "Five Eyes" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes Its main enemy used to be USSR/Russia but now China has equal "billing".

    Cheers Pete

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  19. Pete, I wrote about all these topics - and in general, I already wrote about almost everything ... ;-))

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  20. Hello from Spain

    going back to the post about Japan joining AUKUS, that could led to japanese F35Bs operating from both LHD Canberra & LHD Sidney...not a bad idea!

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  21. Hi Igor @Dec 12, 2022, 8:31:00 PM

    Yes many topics may seem old but a new look at them would be very interesting.

    In light of the plunge in Western relations with Russia (eg. war in Ukraine) many English speaking readers would be interested in your ex or current Russian's Eye View of all this.

    Cheers Pete

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  22. Hi Anonymous from Spain @Dec 12, 2022, 9:41:00 PM

    Not a bad idea :) However...

    Australia's 2 Landing Helicopter Docks (LHDs) are of the Canberra-class, being HMAS Canberra and HMAS Adelaide. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canberra-class_landing_helicopter_dock#Ships

    They are of course based on Navantia's (Spain's. Thankyou :) Juan Carlos I "multi-purpose amphibious assault ship-aircraft carrier" which does take Harriers and F-35Bs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_amphibious_assault_ship_Juan_Carlos_I

    Returning to the Canberra-class. They retain Harrier/F-35B capable "ski-jumps" but would need to be heavily deck modified to temporarally take US or Japanese F-35Bs. Many greater modifications would be needed to permanently take F-35Bs.

    Even if each Canberra-class took its maximum of 12 F-35Bs and had the extra escort vessels for medium-level conflict (eg. against China) this would be inadequate.

    To make a difference against China Australia would need a Carrier Battle Group around a Nimitz/Ford class or Elizabeth II class carrier.

    It is much easier for Australia to make a difference with submarines - SSKs or better still, SSNs.

    Regards Pete

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  23. Yes, it would be nice to do bilingual articles, but: a) Google as a translator is very bad; b) he himself does not have time to translate and edit each article ...

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  24. Hi Pete
    In the mean time..Taiwan is quiertly building advanced SSK with US and European help
    https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/4150573
    (translation with google ,if needed)

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  25. Yes!! Adelaide!! I beg your pardon!

    Well, you are right when you say that a LHD with F35B would make little difference against China...operating alone. But let´s say we deploy Hyuga, Canberra and a couple of USNAVY LHD/LHA operating each of those decks an air unit of 12-14 F35Bs PLUS 3 AEW HELOs (Merlin CrowNest or similar)...

    That CBG (with the AAW and ASW escorts) means 48 F35B + AEW: VERY FEW navies in the world would be able of oposing such formidable Task Force. Not even China, in my view

    I believe that the future of Fighter and Strike Naval Aviation si STOVL

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  26. Hi Anonymous frrom Spain @Dec 13, 2022, 8:13:00 PM

    Unfortunately the combined coalition of the Quad navies you list will probably be inferior to China's land based resources. This is assuming these navies get together in defence of Taiwan, just a hop, skip and a jump from mainland China.

    China's land based air forces are increasing in number, and more importantly in quality. With pilots trained by US and UK defectors - Chinese pilots increasingly in 4.5 and 5th generation Chinese jets.

    But the most dangerous Chinese forces against Quad carriers are probably developmental Chinese DF-21D https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21#DF-21D and suspected DF-26 Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs) especially modified, in conjunction with Chinese satellites and loitering drones, to sink carriers.

    Feliz Navidad
    https://youtu.be/m6zXgiKhTus

    Pedro :)

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  27. Hi Pete,

    Merry xmas to you in advance mate :)

    The issue with pilot defectors is one that I personally was worried about for the US brass. On one hand they have a lot of corruption, with admirals going straight to board members of military companies, for example. And they have so many admirals! Google search shows about..320? 330? More admirals than actual ships.

    So the problem is, is that if you actually cut the fat and cut the corruption, then you have hundreds and thousands of experienced, knowledgable people who feel slighted, unappreciated, robbed of their easy cash cow, who might then want to defect, who are vulnerable to bribes from ...anyone!

    And so, here we see retired pilots being offered, say half a million, from a country which spends $230 bn on their military, and apparently $250bn on internal security. It's a difficult problem to tackle. Cut corruption, increase patriotism, yet not have to pay billions in retirement funds to them.

    Have a good one!

    Andrew

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  28. Thanks Andrew @Dec 21, 2022, 3:53:00 PM

    Yours is a very insightful comment on excessive numbers of US "Flag"* officers, their almost instant right to be paid as consultants by private industry (and even by foreign governments) and how Chinese military intelligence has exploited this.

    * See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_officer#United_States

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

    Pete

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