India appears to have reconsidered its early November 2022 intention (see SubMatts) to “stop” Chinese PLAN spy ship Yuan Wang 6 from surveilling the Indian K or Agni series missile test(s).
India instead plans the less confrontational response of delaying the test(s) until later this month (November 23/24, 2022). BTW, this same source, perhaps incorrectly, talks of “K-12” SLBMs. K-12 SLBMs don’t exist according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K_Missile_family. K-15 appears more correct.
As well as avoiding confrontation India's date change of heart may, in part be due to:
- an additional PLAN spy ship Yuan Wang 5 entering the Indian Ocean, showing more determined Chinese resolve.
- There are several other ways China can optically and electronically “watch” the tests, particularly using a combination of satellites and Chinese landmass ground stations.
- India's original idea of keeping the PLAN spy ships out of India 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was/is not legally valid, as China would not be encroaching for economic reasons.
- and, in any case India's EEZ will not restrict Yuan Wang 5 and 6 from sitting just south of the southwestern extremity of the missile range "no fly zone" were the 2 ships can still "capture" missile flight data. Or the satellite(s) downlinks may reach the ships much further south into the central Indian Ocean. See map below courtesy Damien Symon Twitter via Swarajya November 12, 2022.
It is obvious that they cannot stop it. International shipping regulations allow for transit in EEZ as those are international waters first as far as transit goes.
ReplyDeleteIndia can of course send the INS Dhruv and other sister ships into the SCS later and do so quietly. Unfortunately the Indian media has all the communicating subtlety of a bull in a china shop and cannot shut up. The shrill useless jingoism being counter productive most of the time.
I wish they emulated the care displayed by FM Jaishankar and DM Rajnath Singh. Better to do and show rather than just yap.
With satellite intelligence, naval UCAV, UUV and USVs becoming integral to any naval battle, there are many ways for India to also track future JL-3 and CJ-10 tests and get useful telemetry data.
PS: I was reading past Aussie PM John Curtin's quotes during and after pearl harbor. What a foresight. His grasp of population limitations and ability of Australia to deploy resources either in the Torres straits or around Darwin is generations ahead of time. Wish the folks at ACT read those papers and drew lessons for AUKUS and general naval capability planning for the oncoming conflict with the PLA-N.I think the worst handicap that AU,UK and US suffer is the confederation of legislative dunces holding the reins of power.
Hi GhalibKabir @Nov 16, 2022, 3:15:00 PM
ReplyDeleteYep. You're right about "satellite intelligence, naval UCAV, UUV and USVs" data interception of PRC missile tests.
The fortuitous geography of the "Free World Inc." and Vietnam earth stations on peninsulas, landforms and islands near potential PRC water's (eg. SCS) missile ranges may make INS Dhruv voyages into those waters unnecessary.
"free world" satellites, (eg. working to Pine Gap) UUVs (with antennas/dishes up), and many other platforms add to the telemetry interception picture.
Western China provides fully on land missile ranges. But a host of interception modes still apply.
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On Aussie WW2 PMs lucky that Churchill loyalist Menzies was kicked out before Japan's offensive of Dec 7, 1941 (onwards). Otherwise Menzies might have followed Churchill recommendation that Australia should be prepared to surrender to Japan - as long as Britain could carry on.
John Curtin's priorities were clearer thinking pro-Australia carrying-on - with a switch of Australia reliance to the US (Gen. MacArthur* and all). A reliance continuing to this very day and perhaps (via AUKUS SSNs) continuing to 2080 (in water 2045 + 35 years life or reactor).
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_MacArthur#Escape_from_the_Philippines
Regards Pete
Regarding issue of China's Yuan Wang 5 and 6 spy ships covering India's Agni-3 IRBM test - 2 update articles are:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/tracking-china-spy-ship-yuan-wang-6-and-yuan-wang-5-movements-india-agni-iii-missile-test-2301238-2022-11-24 of Nov 24, 2022
"Tracking China's spy ship movements amid India's Agni-III missile test: Two Chinese spy ships, Yuan Wang 6 and Yuan Wang 5, meander the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) following the first NOTAM (notice to airmen) issued by India near one of its missile launch sites based in Odisha..." With many good maps and photos.
AND
https://www.jagranjosh.com/current-affairs/agni-3-india-successfully-testfires-intermediate-range-ballistic-missile-1669262436-1 also Nov 24, 2022
"Agni-3: India successfully test-fires intermediate range ballistic missile: The launch of the Agni-3 missile was carried out for a predetermined range and it validated all the operational parameters of the system..." with more detail on Agni-3s
Pete