Unfortunately France at the highest level (President Macron) is criticising Australia’s plans to buy SSNs, as Macron claims this risks increasing tensions with China. See the Australian Financial Review's November 18, 2022 report or, if paywalled, see this report.
This means France is not
offering Australia SSNs, only SSKs.
This is specifically indicated by a France 24 report of November 17, 2022 where President Macron "said France would not supply nuclear submarines to foreign countries, so the offer related only to conventional vessels.
[President Macron] added it would guarantee Canberra's "freedom and sovereignty", noting that construction would be in Australia."
Hi Pete
ReplyDelete2 comments from a french anonymous perspective
-Macron is known in France for his inabilty to keep his mouth shut (usually provocative remarks) while being extremely versatile.He is a soft liberal economist pro European (Ex banker)and most feel that he has ,besides that, little historic:stategic vision.He has been elected twice as his far left/right opponents were utterly mediocre to say the least.He can be compared to Trudeau on many societal issues
-as far as the Aus sub ("still on the table") is concerned, most people in Fr thought he was not serious.What made sense in 2015,does not make sense in 2021 following Chinese new "assertiveness"...and the subsequent political decision in Australia.It might be wrong but that is the Aus decision.
With Macron provocation is always possibleand he must have enjoyed the current Aus mess
Following the Bangkok speech he has given up any intention/hope to deliver SSN or SSK to Aus.Naval has little capacity in Fr. anyway
-in Bangkok at the APEC forum he was not talking to Australian, but to the non aligned SE Asian countries (India, Indonesia,Vietnam, Malaysia,..)restating the traditional Fr foreign
policy posture.These are the prime area of interest for the Fr diplomacy.to maintain its influence in the area, and maintain links with overseas departments.He was also sending a signal to traditional or potential Sub customers that SSN were off (Brazil and India have their own programme.).Indonesia (Airbus, Helo, Rafale jets, howitzers, subs..financed by the Sunni Gulf states jockeying for influenvce), Malaysia .Vietnam probablty.
French Weapons are the only ITAR free, state of the art stuff,displacing the Russian from their traditional customers and fending off US or SK competition.This is a "Marketing strategy" in line with Fr diplomacy..It support at the same time the huge R§D costs(needed to maintain independance) absorption.
To summarize the msg is : you know France is in the sub business !
If Australia doesn't get nuke subs, there's always the B-21 (if the U.S. is willing to export it):
ReplyDelete"Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles hinted that Australia could purchase the
upcoming B-21 Raider in an interview with The Australian last month.
Marles mentioned that the B-21, which is still in development, is being examined to
fill requirements for Australia’s long-range strike capabilities, which it lost in
2010 following the retirement of its F-111C/G Aardvark strike aircraft fleet."
See:
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/australia-wants-b-21-stealth-bombers-to-check-china/
Hi Anonymous.From my undertanding the Álvaro Alberto is going to be an enlarged Scorpène hull or a Barracuda hull mated with a Brazillian reactor. Would France be willing to do the same for Australia if it could find its own reactor. Would a Scorpène or Barracuda hull with Indian nuclear reactor be possible for India?
ReplyDeleteInteresting question
ReplyDeleteThe nuclear section provides pressurized steam,but that is only the beginning..An SSN is more than a reactor section
To fully use the very large power available all electrical systems are differents (high power sensors, desalinization , oxygen generation,HVAC,computer and displays .. batteries loading..and also propulsion.In this case high power,4 to 10 MW ,synchronous permanent magnet motors and the sophisticated inverters with semiconductors devices (apparently problematic in SK subs? )are needed
UK and US SSN relies on steam turbines only, contrarily to Barracudas that have a dual sysytem
Jeumont(Magtronic) was the innovator (motors used in SSK ,SAAB A26 ,Naval Scorpene Navantia S80, in the 2.5 to 3.5 MW range or in USN Constellation, Italian or French Fremm frigates powered by a 32 MW gas turbine and electrical generators
It is not clear that Siemens Permasyn or Japanese suppliers have these powers.For the Brazilian on shore SSN prototype Jeumont delivered a very large ,70 T,Magtronic probably in the 5 MW range
No public data on the Suffren class SSN motor, except that it is delivered by barge to Cherbourg... ..
Anonymous Nov 20 at 01 49
Hi Anonymous@Nov 20, 2022, 4:13:00 PM
ReplyDeleteThe Brazilian SSN is an enlarged Scorpene with a locally made Brazilian reactor using 20% enriched Uranium usually called MEU or medium enriched uranium.
India has gone the HEU route till date and prefers at least 40% enriched U-235 fueled naval reactors. Unless India can miniaturize the current reactor to operate under 20% or less U-235, the LEU based K-15 derivative is not viable for India.
Australia has some test reactor facilities at Lucas Heights, NSW. However, it is nowhere close to what is needed in terms of a full nuclear cycle capability. Assuming the Brazilian route is chosen then at least 15,000 SWU enrichment facility will be needed similar to Brazil and India. India is now on its way to boosting its SWUs to 30,000 plus and possibly closer to 100,000 in the coming years even assuming some downblending occurs as the IN is contemplating a shift to LEU based subs.
Australia will need humongous investments. AUKUS is a neat solution that can bypass this whole messy discussion by ensuring HEU is provided and taken back by the US under some sort of IAEA approved 123 agreement. Far more palatable and even if the Chinese howl their heads off, they will grudgingly watch it progress as it involves no 'proliferation' so to speak.
At the end of the day the issue remains the same. Is the US willing to bite the bullet and provide an SSN fleet to the RAN under a well thought out plan? today the answer is no.
Thanks for your French Anonymous perspective @Nov 20, 2022, 1:49:00 AM
ReplyDeleteNice/not to here politicians, from France and Australia, share the same opportunistic approaches, with little popular backing.
Morrison was one of our worst.
Interesting "China's new assertiveness" is a widely concern.
Also interesting "Sunni Gulf states" are financing Indonesia's arms buildup with French "(Airbus, Helo, Rafale jets, howitzers, subs)."
It is fitting and timely that Indionesia has turned away from buying Russian weapons.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous @Nov 20, 2022, 11:00:00 AM
ReplyDeleteGiven Australia's health crisis opportunity cost concern - the RAAF spending a likely A$3.5 Billion per B-21 (by 2030) will look like yet another Defence extravagance. Where ever we base B-21s China could hit them on the ground - even with conventional HE missiles.
Unless Australia is prepared to nuclear arm B-21s I see them as no great capability increase compared to Aus conventional IRBMs-ICBMs (in the works) or our midair-refueled F-35As.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous @Nov 20, 2022, 4:13:00 PM
ReplyDeleteFrance's "solution" for Brazil has been daunting for the latter because of the extreme difficulty and cost of developing an efficient submarine reactor.
Even Britain couldn't do it in the 1950s/60s, which is why HMS Dreadnought used a US S5W reactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Dreadnought_(S101)#Design_and_construction
Australia is way behind Brazil and Britain in every nuclear field.
So its out of the question (eg. $100s Billions) that Australia could develop our own submarine reactor.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous @Nov 21, 2022, 5:10:00 AM
ReplyDeleteYes there are many uncertaities getting accurate information and figures, even about SSKs, let alone SSNs.
Regards Pete
Hi GhalibKabir @Nov 21, 2022, 8:00:00 PM
ReplyDeleteVery true about the huge obstacles and cost for Australia to build an SSN capability.
And Australia being in no position to entertain an LEU submarine reactor option - given Australia is only talking to very high HEU sub reactor UK and US allies.
The whole LEU debate over Australia's AUKUS decision seems to be either a Macron inspired spanner in the works
OR
a misplaced non-proliferation and environmental ideal of some (including US) academics who vaguely see the US using an LEU submarine reactor after 2080 (ie. after the Columbia SSBNs and SSN(Xs) have been built.
++++++++++++++++++
For generalist readers also noting "SWU" means:
"Separative work unit, abbreviated as SWU, is the standard measure of the effort required to separate isotopes of uranium (U235 and U238) during an enrichment process in nuclear facilities. 1 SWU is equivalent to 1 kg of separative work."
see https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Separative_work_unit_(SWU)
Regards Pete