Dr R. Vignesh and Cmde Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd) have published an excellent Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) Issue Brief entitled:
“One Year of AUKUS: An Assessment of Progress and
Challenges” dated November 2,2022
at: https://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/One-Year-of-AUKUS-rvignesh-aksingh-021122
Its Summary is:
“In the one year since the announcement of AUKUS,
significant developments have been set in motion to enable Australia to acquire
eight nuclear attack submarines (SSNs). At the same time, it has also become
clear that AUKUS certainly goes beyond just SSNs and involves the development
of other niche capabilities as well, in the areas such as hypersonics, quantum
technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), cyber, autonomous undersea vehicles
(AUV) and electronic warfare capabilities (EWC). AUKUS’s potential to tangibly
impact the Indo-Pacific geopolitical discourse, however, can perhaps only be
seen in the long term.”
Pete Comment
The brief is well written, learned and balanced. It has
a very useful list of Endnotes to back it up. It carries
the caution: “Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the Manohar Parrrikar IDSA or of the Government of India”.
It also includes a revealing function chart “Figure 1. AUKUS Governance
Structure” below:
The above Figure 1. chart is derived from: “FACT SHEET: Implementation of the Australia–United Kingdom–United States Partnership (AUKUS)”, The White House, 5 April 2022.
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteAnother unrelated update for you.
The Chinese seem to be sending another missile telemetry & tracking ship to the Indian Ocean Region, ahead of a planned Indian ballistic missile test later this month:
https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1588479318661173248
The rate of Chinese ISR activities on this side of the Malacca Straits is seeing a definite increase. What's interesting is that the two main tracking ships designated by the Chinese for military/ISR usage, namely the Yuan Wang 5 and 6, were commissioned into the PLASSF roughly 15 years ago but their forays into the IOR have only recently begun in earnest. I suspect the development of platforms like the Agni-Prime (assumed to have anti-ship capabilities) or the indigenous BMD program (a component of which, called the AD-1 interceptor, was test fired just yesterday), not to mention the regular ballistic missile program, are all things that would greatly interest the Chinese for obvious reasons, so if they have a capability to collect telemetry data about these systems when they are tested, they will undoubtedly do it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Wang-class_tracking_ship
I wonder when & if India would send its own recently-commissioned tracking ship, the INS Dhruv (which I talked about on this blog before) into the South China Sea. Earlier this year, India signed an MoU with Vietnam for Mutual Logistics Support - the first such agreement signed by Vietnam with a foreign power. I would say the building blocks which could enable an Indian presence, symbolic or otherwise, in South China Sea are being put in place.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-vietnam-defence-partnership-rajnath-singh-7958663/
Cheers
Pete, I think we have discussed this topic to the extent of being worn out. I still believe the bottom line remains the same,
ReplyDelete1. What is the strategic purpose of an Australian N-propelled sub fleet in the bigger picture? that includes careful consideration to regional concerts such as the Quad and the proposed role a RAN sub fleet will likely play and by what timeline. (the party/incumbent of Kirribilli House being moot to long term Australian strategic plans)
2. Apropos to point 1, we have discussed how engineers and technicians don't grow on trees. Again this will hinge on point 1 and the following point 3 (affecting sub choice, armament choice, operational doctrines etc.). A lead time of 15 years is a bare minimum for generation 1 human capital of the Australian SSN ecosystem to show up.
3. The choice of the sub itself, incl. if it will LEU or HEU fueled and if French then, human capital training might need adequate number of French speaking Australian technical staff to truly master maintenance manuals etc. (even though excellent English translations are likely available at Cherbourg already).. with AUKUS this is now moot as it is HEU SSN.
4. The above 3 are mostly decisions for Australia to have made. Point 4 is the decision that AUKUS allies US and UK have to make or in the past was for DCNS/French Defence Ministry to make. The single question to be answered boiling down to,
How serious are we about n-fueled subs for the RAN? If we are truly serious, are we willing to truly walk the talk and add additional manufacturing line(s) plus expanding the manufacturing capacity of the sub-system supply chains whilst integrating Aussie staff ahead of time steadily to ensure Osborne can,
A. Learn to maintain the first US/UK/French built subs by 2035-2040?
B. Start assembling the 3rd or 4th sub onwards at ASC Osborne just like India did at Mazgaon with the Scorpenes.
C. Create critical spare part/sub-system supply chains in Australia as a backup by 2040?
Even in a notoriously difficult market such as the one for nuclear subs, the critical bottleneck decision is quite clear. Like 1941, is the US willing to stop giving excuses about Virginia and Columbia build rates and etc. and instead get HII/GD EB to expedite a new line creation at say Groton, Connecticut.
PS: If the US can spaff 1 trillion dollars up a wall every year, money is not an excuse, at all. It boils down to the presence/absence of necessary scrotal fortitude alone.
Thanks Gessler @Nov 4, 2022, 10:03:00 PM
ReplyDeleteI turned your timely details into article "A:" of November 7, 2022
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/11/chinese-ships-in-indian-ocean-to-track.html
with B: https://ommcomnews.com/india-news/indian-navy-plans-to-stop-chinese-spy-ship-from-entering-indias-eez marking potential for India (with its substantial resources) intending to block China's Yuan Wang 6
from entering India's EEZ.
Regards Pete
Hi GhalibKabir @Nov 9, 2022, 12:51:00 PM
ReplyDeleteVery true when you say "Pete, I think we have discussed this topic to the extent of being worn out."
Yes from my position of lack of access to Australia's Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforce
https://www.defence.gov.au/about/taskforces/nuclear-powered-submarine-task-force the best we can hope is that it provides definite answers in March 2023 to many of your questions.
I hold no hope that the French SSN option will be seriously entertained.
++++++++++++++++
"IMPACTFUL PROJECTION"
Australia's ABC, Nov 9, 2022, reports https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-09/nobel-prize-winner-australia-cant-drag-feet-on-engineering/101630992 :
What I interpret as Australia's part-time Defence Minister, Marles, instead of substance, adopting a new spin term, "impactful projection", which I see as putting a brave face on AUKUS SSNs only available after 2040.
BUT with the Consolation Bubble that other means of long range strike (without specifying B-21s) could keep ever closer Chinese fleets and island hoppers (eg. Solomons Base) at bay.
+++++++++++++++++
Australia's military-political complex appear so desperate for good news stories that they've harnessed an AstroPhysicist to add more spin - with the ABC further reporting https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-09/nobel-prize-winner-australia-cant-drag-feet-on-engineering/101630992
"Australian National University (ANU) vice-chancellor and Nobel Prize-winning astrophysicist Brian Schmidt has described bringing nuclear boats into service as "one of the biggest training and workforce development challenges Australia has faced.
In a speech to be delivered to the Submarine Institute [of Australia, on Nov 9, 2022]
Professor Schmidt will note that Australia's AUKUS partners expect this country to "pull its own weight and develop sovereign capability to operate and maintain the fleet"."
Blah, Blah, Blah...
So the finely planned, multifaceted, AUKUS Program seems to be reduced to part-time Defence Ministerial and "Nobel-Prize winner" without much defence knowledge, spin.
Regards Pete
The new spokesman for the AUKUS SSN Program continued in detail:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/nobel-prize-winner-warns-australia-cant-continue-to-drag-its-feet-on-aukus-nuclear-submarine-deal/ar-AA13SEjE