More on Japan's ASCMs Types 12 & 17

Here and above is a video, published in early 2022, on Japan's Type 12 cruise missile, with details on future developments. (Video courtesy Dung Tran Military).
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Further to SubMatt's September 14, 2022 article "Japan's Missiles China Target Capable" -  wispywood2344 on September 24, 2022, provided the following comment :

"I have drawn a genealogy of Japanese Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs). [1]

I will use this as a reference to write about the "Type 12 Ground-to-Ship Missile" (Type 12) [aka more commonly in English called a Surface to Surface Missile (SSM)] and its derivatives. 

The "Type 12" was literally adopted in 2012, and several improvement projects exist.

One of them is the "Type 17 Ship-to-Ship Missile" (Type 17 [Projected started in FY2017]), a shipborne version with an extended range. 

In addition, development of two derivatives of the "Type 17" was initiated: a MPA-launched version and a ground-launched version.

However, the latter "Type 12 Ground-to-Ship Missile Kai" (Type 12 Kai) was cancelled due to requirement for longer range and better survivability. 

In order to fulfill this requirement, development of the "Type 12 Ground-to-Ship Missile : Improved" (Type 12 Imp.) and its derivatives were initiated.

Their main features are as follows : "Long-Range", "Stealth", "Ground-attack-capable", and "Rapid-deployment". 

The first three indicate that these ASCMs are capable of destroying enemy fleets [including aircraft carriers] as well as [in land attack mode] air-bases (whether the ASCMs are on land or at sea).

And the last one strongly suggests that the Japanese government expects "the next war" to be imminent." 

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"By the way, so how imminent is "the next war"?

In my opinion, "the next war" is likely to start in the 2030s.

The timing of the start of deliveries of the "Type 12 Imp." suggests it. 

Since the development of the "Type 12 Imp." is scheduled for completion in FY2025 [2], the first mass production contract should have been awarded in FY2026, and the first delivery should have been in FY2029.

However, the Japanese government decided to accelerate the start of deliveries by 4 years to July 2025. [3]

Naturally, the derivative versions will be deployed similarly ahead of schedule.

There is reports that over 1,000 rounds, including the derivative type, will be purchased [4], but it will take at least several years to complete.

This suggests that the Japanese government expects "the next war" to occur in the 2030s."

[1] [Large Flowchart-diagram in English]

 http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/Japanese_ASCM_Genealogy.svg

[2] [Large Flowchart-diagram PDF in Japanese]

 https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/2021/pdf/jizen_02_logic.pdf

[3] [Two page Japanese language document with title translated: “Items scheduled to be procured in FY2022 (central procurement)”. The rest is in Japanese] 

 https://www.mod.go.jp/atla/souhon/pdf_choutatsuyotei/09_yudou_r04.pdf#page=2

[4] [Article from Japanese news website Yomiuri, titled “[Original] Possession of over 1,000 long-range cruise missiles considered” dated August 21, 2022]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20220820-OYT1T50270/ [originally in Japanese. Now  translated to]: “[Original] Possession of over 1,000 long-range cruise missiles considered”  “It turned out that the [Japanese] government is considering possessing more than 1,000 long-range cruise missiles that it has decided to introduce. With Taiwan contingencies in mind, the missiles will be deployed mainly from the Nansei Islands to Kyushu, with the aim of bridging the "missile gap" with China, which deploys a large number of ballistic missiles.

This was confirmed by several government officials. The government will extend the range of the domestically produced Type 12 surface-to-ship missile deployed by the Ground Self-Defense Force from its current range of over 100 kilometers to around 1,000 kilometers, which will reach the coastal areas of North Korea and China. Improvements are being made so that it can be launched from ships and fighter planes. The plan is to deploy the improved ground-launched version in fiscal 2024, about two years ahead of schedule. It will also be applied to ground attacks targeting the ground.

     In the [Japanese] National Security Strategy to be revised at the end of the year, the government is expected to announce the possession of "counterattack capability" to attack the enemy's missile launching bases for self-defense. Improved missiles will be the core of the "counterattack capability." In order to have more than 1,000 missiles soon, it is necessary to increase the production lines of companies involved in missile development. The [Japanese] Ministry of Defense plans to create a system to support capital investment by related companies, and plans to include related expenses in the budget request for the fiscal 2023 budget.

     The reason why the government is aiming to possess a large number of long-range missiles is because the gap between Japan, the United States and China in their missile attack capabilities is too wide.

     Until now, Japan has not deployed long-range missiles capable of ground-attacking, as it had a policy of not possessing "enemy base attack capability" (counterattack capability). Since signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with the former Soviet Union in 1987, the United States has prohibited the possession of ground-launched missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers until it expires in August 2019. Currently, it has resumed development, but has not reached the point of ownership.

     In contrast, according to analysis by the U.S. Department of Defense and other sources, China is said to have about 1,900 ground-launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles and about 300 intermediate-range cruise missiles that can reach Japan. [Even more Chinese missiles can reach Taiwan].

     North Korea also has hundreds of ballistic missiles that can reach Japan. China and North Korea are also developing hypersonic weapons that fly on irregular trajectories and are difficult to intercept. It is difficult for the [Japanese] Self-Defense Forces to deal with it with interceptor missiles alone.”