China Worried: Australia's Nuclear Deterrent Urge

 

SNAFU has been discussing an Australian nuclear deterrent for several months now (on March 11, 2022, many later comments, also July 7, 2022 and July 8, 2022). 

It appears China is taking notice. 

While Australia's deterrent may only be a "paper" computer simulated, urge at this stage, this presents the worry to China that is intended. If China continues its aggressive trend Australia will continue to develop nuclear precursors. Possibly relevant - scroll down HERE to check out this Australian rocket/missile launch vehicle due to be used this year.

The following article reflects China's worry.

Australia's Government owned ABC News reports, July 21, 2022:

Beijing warns AUKUS submarine project sets a 'dangerous precedent' and threatens non-proliferation

By foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic

Posted Thu 21 Jul 2022 at 2:04pm, updated Thu 21 Jul 2022 at 11:26pm

The AUKUS deal is expected to see nuclear-powered submarines entering service for Australia in the 2040s. (US Indo-Pacific Command)

China's government is ramping up its campaign against Australia's push to build nuclear-powered submarines with the United States and the United Kingdom, publishing a new report which declares the project is a grave risk to non-proliferation and warns that Australia may be intent on developing nuclear weapons.

Key points:

• The report warns the submarine deal would set a "dangerous precedent" by allowing nuclear states to transfer weapons-grade nuclear materials to a non-nuclear state
• It also claims Australia remains intent on acquiring nuclear weapons
• China has been rapidly expanding its own nuclear weapons arsenal in recent years

Two Chinese "think tanks" — the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association and China Institute of Nuclear Industry Strategy — held a press conference in Beijing on Wednesday with a host of state media outlets to launch the report, which is titled: A Dangerous Conspiracy: The Nuclear Proliferation Risk of the Nuclear-powered Submarines Collaboration in the Context of AUKUS.

The lengthy report berates Australia, the US and the UK for setting a "dangerous precedent" with AUKUS because it would allow nuclear states to transfer weapons-grade nuclear materials to a non-nuclear state for the first time.

"In addition, it ferments potential risks and hazards in multiple aspects such as nuclear security, arms race in nuclear submarines and missile technology proliferation, with a profound negative impact on global strategic balance and stability," the report reads.

Richard McGregor from the Lowy Institute said both think tanks were "part of the broader fabric of the Chinese party-state" — rather than independent entities — and that the report was part of an orchestrated campaign against AUKUS by the Chinese government.

"The [Chinese government] has long been campaigning on this and this report simply tries to flesh out their argument, add weight to it, and give them a document they can distribute to any country they want around the world to make their case," he said.

"Any roadblocks they can put in the way of AUKUS, they will put them there. We should expect this thing to happen for the next decade or so. China won't let up."

AUKUS plan revealed by March

Australia's future nuclear submarine plans are expected to be unveiled early next year, with the government also looking to detail its moves to fix a looming capability gap.

Read more

Australia has already boosted resources in both Canberra and Vienna to help bolster its diplomatic defences against Russian and Chinese campaigns against the project.

However, Mr McGregor said the "uncomfortable fact" for Australia was that China "had an argument to make" when it pointed out that AUKUS would set a new precedent.

"I don't doubt Australia will strictly follow rules on non-proliferation [and] that nuclear grade material will be locked up inside the submarines for the life of the vessels and won't be used to make nuclear weapons," he said.

"But the Chinese can argue that once the US and the UK can do this for Australia, then any other nuclear country — say Russia — could say, 'OK, we can transfer similar material to, say, Iran for use in their submarines'," he said.

"Now we might rightly trust Australia to handle this material correctly, but would we trust Iran to use it according to global rules? And there might be a different answer to those two questions."

Claims Australia wants nuclear weapons

The Chinese government report also makes more-outlandish claims that Australia remains intent on acquiring nuclear weapons, citing the federal government's "obsessive pursuit" of the technology back in the 1950s and 1960s under the Menzies government.

"Given the fact that Australia already has a body of nuclear weapons-related knowledge accumulated historically and that it will get into its hands nuclear-capable delivery systems, once the country takes the desperate step to develop nuclear weapons again, the lead time to a nuclear breakthrough will be too short for the international community to respond effectively," the report says.

It also says that nuclear weapons advocates in Australian academia have "resurged" recently, but only cites two recent articles to support that claim.

One of the two articles quoted does not even directly advocate for Australia to acquire nuclear weapons.

China is rapidly expanding its arsenal of weapons, including nuclear-capable missiles and warheads.(AP: Mark Schiefelbein)

Mr McGregor said the suggestion that there was a serious push within official and academic circles for Australia to acquire nuclear weapons was "obviously not true" and that the report's authors had "picked through" articles and the historical record to present a distorted narrative.

"We can't even manage to get a consensus about having nuclear energy reactors. The idea we are going to rapidly become a nuclear weapon state is not credible," he said.

He also said it was worth noting the report was silent on China's rapid expansion of its own nuclear weapons arsenal.

"You're not going to get a balanced debate out of think tanks which are effectively arms of the Chinese party-state," he said. 

"We shouldn't be surprised by that and we shouldn't expect it.

"China complains relentlessly about the military build-up of other countries, say Japan for example, while its own military build-up dwarfs that of every other country around them."

In a statement, a spokesperson for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) said there were "numerous incorrect assertions" in the report.

"Australia, the US and the UK will implement the strongest possible non-proliferation standards to maintain the strength and integrity of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime in relation to nuclear-powered submarines," they said.

"The government has been very clear that Australia does not and will not seek nuclear weapons.

"Australia's decision to acquire conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines is something we are pursuing openly and transparently."