Turkey, Ukraine and some other Black Sea neighbours have been more than disturbed by aggressive Russian naval activities in 2022, This presents a renewed market niche for relatively inexpensive 500 tonne defensive submarines that can ply the Black and other seas.
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Turkey's submarine industry has licence built TKMS 209s and 214s. So its no surprise that Turkey’s "first national submarine" the STM 500, appears to combine the small size of Germany's TKMS defensive Type 205 and the shape of the TKMS Type 210 "Ula-class".
Why is Turkey building the STM 500?
The Black Sea strategic need is most likely. The STM 500 has just started to be built with completion expected in 2026. Although the STM 500's customer is yet to be identified Turkey's region has an increasing need for small submarines providing an affordable deterrent against Russian naval forces. In green/brown water operations a 500 tonne sub's limited range and endurance is acceptable. Theatres of war may include the:
- Black Sea (with rising Russian aggression against Ukraine) and also
- the eastern Mediterranean with Greece, Syria and Israel strategic problems requiring Turkish intelligence gathering.
Many countries without the funds to buy the typical, medium sized, 1,200+ tonne Euro-subs, or South Korean built 209s, might find lower priced STM 500s attractive. Such countries (all close to threatening Russia) might specifically include Ukraine, Albania, Bulgaria, Georgia, Poland, Denmark and Finland. Also the Philippines is a potential buyer and more generally Middle Eastern, North African and Latin American countries.
When I read the news, the first thing I thought was that the buyer could be Qatar: it has plenty of money, has very close relations with Turkey and faces the threat of Iranian subs.
ReplyDeleteYes, could be Qatar, UAE, Oman. The smaller, and with it, generally the cheaper the sub the greater the pool of possible buyers.
ReplyDeleteI would suggest you could take the 3 north Europeans off your list. Their Baltic neighbours include Germany & Sweden. No one knows more about submarines in the Baltic than those two. Only Russia would look else where.
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous [at Jul 16, 2022, 7:10:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteIt is possible TKMS submarine yard capacity is fully utilized building 218SGs, Dolphin 3s and 212CDs.
Large parts of Turkey's STM 500s may also be built under TKMS/German industry licences using TKMS designs.
Often nationalistic "indigenous" submarines are actually subs assembled under large Eurosub company designs and guidance.
All this MAY mean:
- the STM 500s are essentially Baltic adaptible TKMS designs
- with TKMS skimming agreed profit margins from Golcuk (the Turkish submarine assembler).
Regards Pete