The misadventures of AUKUS robot AlboGov never cease. I publish on subs, other naval, nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are glacial: talk rather than actual new subs. The 1st Collins LOTE may secretly concern the US Combat System & be ready 2029. Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs right through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C and Gessler are excellent writers. Pete.
Anastasia Kapetas, National Security Editor of Australia's ASPI Strategist has written an
interesting article, dated May 30, 2022, titled:
Ensuring the right safeguards are in place for Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines
It raises many issues including, half
way down:
“But there’s one other scenario that an
Australia-specific safeguard would have to cover. And that is in the event of
an accident where Australia would need to gain access to the reactor….”
Thanks Pete. Good to see Defence is progressing these issues. ANSTO and ARPANSA are definite assets to the RAN SSN project.
ReplyDeleteLabor have a majority government now and announced their cabinet today. Richard Marles was appointee as Deputy PM and Defence Minister. Marles is leader of the dominant Labor Right faction and has a long term interest in defence.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-government-full-ministry
This is the best possible outcome for Defence. Marles has factional power, is from the right (so no ideological problem with SSNs) and is Deputy PM to boot, so will have clout in cabinet to push things through. Frankly this is a relief.
Thanks Anonymous [at May 31, 2022, 8:21:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteI'll put your comment up as an article.
Yes a relief indeed, especially with Labor having a majority in the House.
More complicated in the Senate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2022_Australian_federal_election_(Senate)
"The final results of the Senate election are not yet clear, as two seats remain in doubt as of 30 May 2022.[1] However, it is currently projected that the Coalition will remain the largest parliamentary grouping in the Senate, despite their defeat in the House. The Greens are expected to win three additional seats in the Senate, thereby gaining the sole balance of power in the upper house; two senators from every state will be Greens in the next Parliament. Meanwhile, the incoming Labor government's numbers in the Senate is projected to remain unchanged."
Although we can hopefully count to the Coalition in the Senate voting with Labor on SSN matters.
Regards
Pete
Pete
ReplyDeleteYes Labor having a simple majority in the lower House and able to negotiate with the Liberals in the Senate means AUKUS SSN bills should be able to be passed.
In theory the Liberals could wedge Labor in the Senate by opposing an AUKUS bill, but surely that would destroy their credibility on Defence. I can't imagine Dutton would permit that.
Anon@Jun 1, 2022, 10:47:00 AM
ReplyDeleteDutton is a class 1 drongo and hence we shouldn't put it past him and the liberals to squeeze labour on AUKUS, though my impression is that, if push comes to shove the libs will help labour cross the line on the legislative front.
Given the permanent political tatters the US finds itself in, I hope the new Ozzie government doesn't dawdle too much on the SSN kick off timelines and gets the minimally needed 'cannot back off' type commitments needed from the US before Biden leaves office. the republicans are capable of doing anything to 'own the libs' including throwing a giant monkey wrench in the AUKUS works just to spite the democrats. If as is likely, trumpty is back ala Grover Cleveland for term 2, then all bets are off..
Nuclear rules waivers, any IAEA obligations...possible NSG deliberations... lots of miles to go yet before the first boat is laid down....
Hi GhalibKabir [at Jun 1, 2022, 9:37:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteYou may be on to something.
Dutton's Libs may voice the line that in order for the AUKUS subs to be built quickly (to meet the China threat) THEY SHOULD BE BUILT IN THE UK OR US.
This will put Labor in a wedge bind due to Labor's slower local build obligations to Unions, Aus percentage Content Suppliers, Federal Labor Seats in Adelaide, and South Australia's State Labor Government.
Regards Pete
Hi GhalibKabir
ReplyDeleteI've taken the liberty of moving your "Hi Pete. One should hope even class A drongos are able to see the occasional ray of sense and avoid playing with fire over critical security matters..."
below new article "Labor's AUKUS Sub Economics and Politics" of June 3, 2022 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/06/labors-aukus-sub-economics-and-politics.html?showComment=1654322090809#c8906318819217487645
because it fits better. Even Dutton is mentioned there :)
Cheers Pete