As I mentioned (between the lines) before, Brazil did the right thing in advising the FBI of the approach by the Toebbe couple. This is partly due to Brazil's good relations with the US.
In response to Gessler’s comment of March 18, 2022.
Brazil’s nuclear propelled submarine Alvaro Alberto SN-BR program is moving so slowly in large part because a strategic nuclear threat
from Argentina no longer exists. Argentina is no longer contemplating a nuclear
weapons program. Decades ago part of the Brazilian nuclear submarine program
had a Strategic Rationale which included:
“The Brazilian Navy modernization program plans
the development and construction of six SSN submarines.[27] In the Brazilian doctrine, the raison d'etre of the national defence strategy is to
develop deterrence capability against a possible hostile force to the
national territory.[28] The country understands that with its future
nuclear fleet, at least some of its weapons will be able to survive the first
strike of an enemy and prevent further attempts at aggression.[29]"
This rationale included a nuclear weapons development arms between Brazil and Argentina race extending back to the 1950s see:
"In the 1970s and 1980s, during the military regime, Brazil had a secret program intended to
develop nuclear weapons.[1][2][3][4][5][6][7] The
program was dismantled in 1990, five years after the military regime ended, and
Brazil is considered free of weapons of mass destruction.[8]
In the 1950s, President Getúlio Vargas encouraged the development of independent national
nuclear capabilities.[2] At that time, the United States worked
actively to prevent Brazil from acquiring the centrifuge
technology that could be used to produce high-enriched
uranium for nuclear weapons.[13]
…Brazil pursued a covert
nuclear weapons program known as the "Parallel Program",[2] with enrichment facilities (including small
scale centrifuge enrichment plants, a limited reprocessing capability, and a missile program).[14] Brazil also reportedly bought highly enriched uranium from China in
the 1980s.
… [But] In 1990, President Fernando Collor
de Mello symbolically closed the Cachimbo test
site, in Pará, and exposed the military’s secret plan to develop a nuclear weapon.[14]
Then–U.S. Secretary
of State Colin Powell stated in 2004 that he was sure that Brazil had no
plans to develop nuclear weapons.[23]"
Under the military
dictatorship, Argentina began a nuclear weapons program in the early 1980s, but
this was abolished when democracy was restored in 1983.
"During the 1980s, the Alacrán (English: Scorpion) and Cóndor 1 (English: Condor) missiles were developed.[1] The Cóndor 2, with a range of around 1,000 kilometres,[2] was intended to be developed with assistance
from Egypt and Ba'athist Iraq. However, the project was condemned by the United States and the Missile
Technology Control Regime.[3] It was reportedly scrapped during the Menem administration under pressure from the
United States government and due to a lack of funds in 1990.[3][4]
Argentina conducted a nuclear weapon research program during the [early 1980s military dictatorship], in part because of a similar Brazilian program assisted by West Germany.[3] International concern over the possibility of an Argentine nuclear weapons program magnified after the Falklands War in 1982, when the U.S. intelligence community estimated that Argentina could build a nuclear bomb from its civilian nuclear program.[9] Government officials at the time confirmed, in November 1983, that research carried out at the Balseiro Institute's research reactor had yielded the capacity for weapons-grade uranium enrichment.[10]
The program was abandoned, however, shortly
after the return of
democracy, on December 10, 1983. President Raúl Alfonsín placed the nuclear program back under
civilian control.[3] The program was also abandoned because
Argentina did not have bad relations with Brazil, and because Brazil was
wealthier than Argentina and thus more advantaged in an arms race.[11]
After the Brazilian
transition to democracy, Argentina and Brazil began cooperating on nuclear
non-proliferation.[11] In 1991 the National
Congresses of Argentina and Brazil ratified a bilateral inspection agreement that
created the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for
Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) to verify both countries' pledges to
use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes.
[However] In 2010, the [Argentine] government
announced that it would start working in the creation of a nuclear submarine.[12] …The announcement was highly criticized by
politicians from opposing parties.[13]"
Pete Comment
The end of any Brazilian-Argentine nuclear weapons arms race has meant a Brazilian nuclear submarine has a lower, slower, priority. It also appears lack of Argentine political support and lack of money has slowed or ended an Argentine nuclear propelled submarine program.
See earlier Submarine Matters' articles on "SN-BR" all the way back to 2014.
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