March 20, 2022

Slow Brazilian SSN Program due to No Argentine Threat

As I mentioned (between the lines) before, Brazil did the right thing in advising the FBI of the approach by the Toebbe couple. This is partly due to Brazil's good relations with the US.

In response to Gessler’s comment of March 18, 2022.

Brazil’s nuclear propelled submarine Alvaro Alberto SN-BR program is moving so slowly in large part because a strategic nuclear threat from Argentina no longer exists. Argentina is no longer contemplating a nuclear weapons program. Decades ago part of the Brazilian nuclear submarine program had a Strategic Rationale which included:

“The Brazilian Navy modernization program plans the development and construction of six SSN submarines.[27] In the Brazilian doctrine, the raison d'etre of the national defence strategy is to develop deterrence capability against a possible hostile force to the national territory.[28] The country understands that with its future nuclear fleet, at least some of its weapons will be able to survive the first strike of an enemy and prevent further attempts at aggression.[29]"

This rationale included a nuclear weapons development arms between Brazil and Argentina race extending back to the 1950s see:

"In the 1970s and 1980s, during the military regime, Brazil had a secret program intended to develop nuclear weapons.[1][2][3][4][5][6][7] The program was dismantled in 1990, five years after the military regime ended, and Brazil is considered free of weapons of mass destruction.[8]

In the 1950s, President Getúlio Vargas encouraged the development of independent national nuclear capabilities.[2] At that time, the United States worked actively to prevent Brazil from acquiring the centrifuge technology that could be used to produce high-enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.[13]

 …Brazil pursued a covert nuclear weapons program known as the "Parallel Program",[2] with enrichment facilities (including small scale centrifuge enrichment plants, a limited reprocessing capability, and a missile program).[14] Brazil also reportedly bought highly enriched uranium from China in the 1980s.

… [But] In 1990, President Fernando Collor de Mello symbolically closed the Cachimbo test site, in Pará, and exposed the military’s secret plan to develop a nuclear weapon.[14]

Then–U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell stated in 2004 that he was sure that Brazil had no plans to develop nuclear weapons.[23]"

Under the military dictatorship, Argentina began a nuclear weapons program in the early 1980s, but this was abolished when democracy was restored in 1983.

"During the 1980s, the Alacrán (English: Scorpion) and Cóndor 1 (English: Condor) missiles were developed.[1] The Cóndor 2, with a range of around 1,000 kilometres,[2] was intended to be developed with assistance from Egypt and Ba'athist Iraq. However, the project was condemned by the United States and the Missile Technology Control Regime.[3] It was reportedly scrapped during the Menem administration under pressure from the United States government and due to a lack of funds in 1990.[3][4]

Argentina conducted a nuclear weapon research program during the [early 1980s military dictatorship], in part because of a similar Brazilian program assisted by West Germany.[3] International concern over the possibility of an Argentine nuclear weapons program magnified after the Falklands War in 1982, when the U.S. intelligence community estimated that Argentina could build a nuclear bomb from its civilian nuclear program.[9] Government officials at the time confirmed, in November 1983, that research carried out at the Balseiro Institute's research reactor had yielded the capacity for weapons-grade uranium enrichment.[10] 

The program was abandoned, however, shortly after the return of democracy, on December 10, 1983. President Raúl Alfonsín placed the nuclear program back under civilian control.[3] The program was also abandoned because Argentina did not have bad relations with Brazil, and because Brazil was wealthier than Argentina and thus more advantaged in an arms race.[11]

After the Brazilian transition to democracy, Argentina and Brazil began cooperating on nuclear non-proliferation.[11] In 1991 the National Congresses of Argentina and Brazil ratified a bilateral inspection agreement that created the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) to verify both countries' pledges to use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes. 

[However] In 2010, the [Argentine] government announced that it would start working in the creation of a nuclear submarine.[12] …The announcement was highly criticized by politicians from opposing parties.[13]"

Pete Comment

The end of any Brazilian-Argentine nuclear weapons arms race has meant a Brazilian nuclear submarine has a lower, slower, priority. It also appears lack of Argentine political support and lack of money has slowed or ended an Argentine nuclear propelled submarine program. 

See earlier Submarine Matters' articles on "SN-BR" all the way back to 2014.

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