Danil Bochkov for The Diplomat has written an excellent article dated March 26, 2022. The Diplomat article is paywalled - so I'm only providing this fragment:
"...Chinese neutrality, however, should not be conflated with de facto support of Russia. Since the outbreak of the conflict over a month ago, Beijing has remained unwilling to either openly bail out Moscow or criticize it.
India, by contrast, has been even more energetic in reaching out to Russia by ramping up oil purchases and jumpstarting trade in national currencies. India has already gained an advantage from the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West by almost quadrupling its daily purchases of Russian oil at much cheaper prices. Now New Delhi is going even further by approving a proposal raised earlier by Russian authorities to allow Russian investors to buy debt securities of Indian companies. In fact, doing so required India to ease control over the system of its external commercial borrowing, which speaks of New Delhi’s willingness to deepen financial cooperation with Russia. Now Russian organizations can invest in bonds of Indian companies and pay for it with rupees via its own account open in the Reserve Bank of India..."
"GUEST AUTHOR Danil Bochkov is an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council. He earned his Master of Economics at MGIMO-University under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. He also has a master’s degree in world economy from the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE, Beijing). He tweets at @danil_bochkov"
SEE THE WHOLE EXCELLENT THE DIPLOMAT ARTICLE HERE.
Not to bang on about this topic mate, but, It bears repeating, Ukraine is not India's war, and given continued german, french and european purchases of Russian gas, asking India to punish its citizens with high energy prices is hypocritical to say the very least.
ReplyDeletewere it not for the human tragedy in Ukraine, It would be funny to watch these western politicians with their sanctimonious pontification and not so veiled threats to others to sing from their 'democratic' hymn book. Not so 'tolerant' of them in reality isn't it?
History and reality are complicated and whether one likes it or not, nations have long memories in international relations. it is not all possible to simply 'compartmentalize' Ukraine simply because the US wants everyone to sing Kumbaya.
Russia bungled by invading and is squarely responsible from the day the first tank rumbled across the border, but for biden to finger wag and not acknowledge 22 years of danger signs incl. reckless instigation by US and NATO, is to not accept the cause effect chain. It is not ok to have one standard for 'brown people' from Afghanistan, Yemen etc. and for EU news networks to indulge in cack handed racism by saying ' the Ukrainians need help as they look like us'...
For its bungled efforts, Russia will pay, but to except middle class Indians to foot US$ 7/gallon gas bills is hypocrisy that merits the US Govt a 'lifetime Oscar award'. Plus what do you think India or other states will think now that international financial services like SWIFT are effective weapons of war or that dollar reserves aren't worth the paper they are printed on and subject to grabbing by Uncle Sam at his leisure and his 'moral view'? Serious questions right? Won't other nations ask the same question? What if I am the next in Uncle Sam's 'Often kangaroo' Courts and hauled up just 'coz Sam is unhappy?
PS: For Biden's complaints about India being the Quad's 'shaky leg', I wonder where he was when India needed desperate help with Chinese aggression on the Ladakh border. While satellite intelligence help is to be thanked for, India's plea for support from the US and friends precisely got the 'Ukraine lite' treatment. No EW tools, no advanced radar support as requested etc.., Modi can't do anything when India's foreign policy establishment stands so blatantly vindicated regarding the flippant support from the US.
Thanks for your views Ghalib
ReplyDeleteDiplomacy is inconsistent including US foreign policy.
Dictators get unequal treatment. One minute Putin is an American President's (Trump's) best buddy. Then Putin does something resoundingly stupid - Ukraine and threatening the West with nuclear war.
At least all of the Quad is on the some side in opposing an aggressive Xi.
Australia having closer military relations with India in the Indian Ocean https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/03/australia-india-boost-indian-ocean.html is also good news.
Regards Pete
The thing is, China has mastered the art of 'below the threshold' provocations and confrontation piecemeal. It remains to be seen how NATO or the Quad or any other grouping comes up with an adequate response that can dissuade China from such tactics...
ReplyDeleteAs of today, all I see happening at the end of the day is everyone flapping around like wet hens and little else. Unless China is sure of similar 'below the threshold' 'painful enough' retaliation from the Quad, they will keep pushing and prodding.
The recent visit by the Chinese foreign minister to India made that abundantly clear. China is not budging one bit despite the total lack of a coherent explanation as to why its western borders keep inexorably shifting further westward all the time with 'new claim' lines appearing every few decades. Xi, I am convinced, is at least as stubborn as emperor Qianlong who left the Chinese armies on the Burmese borders for 20 years from 1770-1790 dissatisfied with the status quo...India is facing such a situation now.
Hi Ghalib [at Mar 29, 2022, 6:23:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteYes, I very much agree with you.
China is an adept salami-slicer making moves that are below the open warfare threshold.
Also China's leaders can take a long patient viewpoint unfettered by democratic elections every 3 to 5 years.
Chinese public opinion can be manipulated or not informed so China can get away with the 1962 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War without public alarm.
Like Tiananmen Square 1989 I wonder if China could airbrush heavy PRC casualties of invading Taiwan from Chinese history.
Regards Pete
The Chinese public sees the Taiwan issue as a the remnant of a family quarrel. Since 1949, 3 and now the 4th generation chinese are learning since school days that Chiang Kai Shek lost the battle and the narrative to Mao and hence Taiwan should come back under 'One China'.
ReplyDeleteMao said as much to the Nixon retinue in 1972. Now, the CCP may be many things, but they are not cack handed drongos and have shown the consistent ability to play the patient long range geopolitical chess game like a grandmaster.
I think China will try to engineer a Taiwanese collapse through its 'under the boiling point' tool kit first. Whether it goes kinetic is likely to depend on how gradual or rapid the US decline is in relative terms to Chinese ascent. If as things stand, the world is indeed showing a visible shift from a unipolar world to a bi-polar one (unfortunate from both meanings perspectives), then depending on the relative merit-demerit matrix, China may choose to strike any time between 2027-2028 to 2045-2047. Just as China is working with zeal to erase Hong Kong's divergence from Beijing, Taiwan is more likely a case of when and not if.
PS: Ofcourse, it goes without saying that, given the intelligence and aversion to mistakes shown by China, any mistake when it occurs, is highly likely to be proportionately much bigger and very unpleasant in terms of regional fall out.
Hi Ghalib
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping China/PRC sees Putin's Ukraine invasion fiasco as a cautionary tale with the main theme "Don't try to invade Taiwan"
PRC economic starvation or political manipulation of Taiwan's will to resist might indeed be the PRC's revised strategy.
A bi-polar US-PRC world + 1/2 (Russia, mainly on PRC's side) make be the nightmare future for the West and even for India.
Regards Pete
Pete, i don't disagree with what you say, though I am afraid the US might be entering an era of slow decline leading to a bi-polar world visibly in the coming decades. History is full of examples that such occurrences are virtually guaranteed to be full of conflict & strife.
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned in the other post, even without such polarized confrontations, mother nature's start of response to man made changes in the climate is a terrifying enough prospect.
I model climate change impacts on corporate strategy etc. for a living and I can say with confidence that there is not one single redeeming scenario regarding the oncoming global catastrophe.... the best outcome being humanity managing to blunt the impact of climate change to a ferocious sideswipe from nature lasting a century rather than a humanity ending catastrophe spread over 1-2 millenia (which is where we are headed as of 04/2022).
Hi Ghalib
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately I feel the world is stuffed.
Even if world population stops growing, people in rich and also developing economies demand a higher standard of living from their governments.
Car/vehicle ownership is something like 2 cars for every 3 people in the US, Canada and Australia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita
Car ownership per-capita is far less in South Asia, Central Asia, China
and Africa. If eveyone equitably and justly wants one 1 car for every 2 people the
energy to build and operate our infernal cars will surely outstrip climate stability.
Regards Pete