On March 7, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Morrison, declared Brisbane, Newcastle and Port Kembla as potential sites for an East Coast Australian Nuclear Submarine Base. In a Submarine Matters article of February 15, 2022 I wrote “Australian Nuclear Subs: East Coast Basing Study”
I pointed out "A major issue connected to Australia’s nuclear
propelled submarine decision is where, on the East Coast, might Australian and
perhaps UK and US SSNs be forward based or regularly visit?"
My article heavily leaned on the Australian Department of
Defence's Future Submarine "FSM BASING STUDY" written
by Commander D.L. Stevens RANR, dated 15 December 2011. As
that partly redacted/blanked out document is 348 pages long I highlighted just
the nuclear bits. The document had been removed from most places on the
web. However "Rossler" kindly rediscovered the document (about
100 MB PDF) on the "Wayback Machine" at https://web.archive.org/web/20210804160533/https://www.defence.gov.au/FOI/Docs/Disclosures/373_1718_Documents.pdf
I commented "Most of the document concerns the many social,
environmental, and other factors concerned with building an East Coast Naval
Base outside of the present one in Sydney Harbour. Alternative locations are
discussed, with the message a base requires a large city to support its
many needs."
Two major extracts from the study include:
[Paragraph] "59 For each of the homeport prospects considered
in this study, key assessment criteria determined from stakeholder interviews
are: "...Visiting Nuclear Propelled Submarines (NPS) – is the port
accredited already for visiting nuclear powered warships or submarines, or
does it have potential to acquire that accreditation?"
[Paragraph] "282 Brisbane is the most northern
capital city on the Australian East Coast, and the only one approved to
place visiting [Nuclear Propelled Submarines and Warships] NPW at wharves."
I concluded concerning “Australia's Fleet Base East [in] Sydney Harbour. I know of no nuclear propelled subs or
surface ships that have actually entered the harbour. There appears to
be pre-existing public and political resistance to that prospect. Hence
possible, long-term, contemplation of alternative basing. Nuclear aside, the
base looks quite crowded in Australia's largest city and busy harbour.”
Today, March 7, 2022, Prime Minister Morrison concentrates on the AUKUS nuclear submarine East Coast forward basing issue from 19 minutes, 25 seconds into the video here and above.
Meanwhile the nuclear submarines' main base will be at Fleet Base West, just south of Perth, Western Australia.
Interesting comments from Australia's ABC News today https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/nuclear-submarine-base-shortlist-brisbane-newcastle-port-kembla/100887204
ReplyDelete"Port Kembla the favourite for new base"
"The ABC understands Port Kembla in the New South Wales city of Wollongong is the preferred option the Defence Department has presented to cabinet's National Security Committee, ahead of Commonwealth negotiations with state governments.
Shadow [ALP Opposition] Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the location of the base should be a bipartisan decision.
"I think ideally big announcements like this should be bipartisan if they can be … this has the potential to span multiple governments and so we'd expect to be briefed on it," Mr Chalmers told Channel Nine.
All three sites are close to sufficient infrastructure and large population centres, and are considered reasonably near Australia's primary maritime training and operational areas, deep water and weapons storage, and loading facilities.
A government source confirmed the Defence Department had recently identified Port Kembla as being the most suitable location, requiring the least amount of additional work.
The new facility would be the first new major defence base built in Australia since the Robertson Barracks in Darwin in the 1990s, with initial works expected to be completed by next year ahead of a final decision on the location.
Early estimates from Defence suggest more than AU$10 billion will be needed for facilities and infrastructure requirements to transition from Collins submarines to the future nuclear-powered fleet.
...On [March 6, 2022 Australian Defence MMinister] Dutton told the ABC's Insiders program the government would decide "within the next couple of months" what submarines it would acquire under the AUKUS partnership
He said the nuclear-powered boats would be in Australia "much sooner" than 2040 and there would be a plan to provide capability in the interim, although the government later played down suggestions a design would be announced before the election.
Mr Dutton's initial suggestion of a pre-election decision on Australia's choice of nuclear-powered submarines caused shock among officials from AUKUS partners the United Kingdom and the United States.
"A lot of effort has gone into taking partisan politics out of the whole process – hopefully, this doesn't derail it," one diplomatic official told the ABC, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
[Australia's Former Prime Miniter Turnbull] said Mr Dutton's decision appeared to be timed to coincide with the election campaign.
"We are literally on the eve of an election, and rushing decisions that were meant to take 18 months into a six-month time frame to suit an election is just transparently political," Mr Turnbull said.
"The idea that you would be rushing decisions like this at this stage speaks only of politics, and I'm afraid that once again Mr Dutton and Mr Morrison are using national security very cynically as a political exercise."
Shadow Defence Minister Brendan O'Connor said the government needed to detail its plan.
"The suggestion for a base for nuclear-powered submarines is just another ploy from the Prime Minister to get a headline without providing any detail of how this will be implemented or even when it will be delivered," Mr O'Connor said.
"It seems like Scott Morrison is trying to divert attention from the fact the nuclear-powered submarines won’t come into effect for more than a decade, leaving Australia with a significant capability gap."
Thanks Pete and fair comments.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Dutton or Morrison played this very cleverly. If the detailed study has been sufficiently completed to confirm a basing and/or submarine design decision then the study should have been released. But it hasn't been.
Conversely if the detailed study hasn't been sufficiently completed to confirm a basing and/or submarine design decision, then Dutton or Morrison announcing them would be pure speculation. Either decision would then be vulnerable to all the criticisms made of Chris Pyne's announcements of the Attack Class program and jobs from it in Adelaide back before the 2016 election. This also gives any critics from a potential Labor government more ammunition to fire at the SSN project.
Both UK and USA have a lot of prestige and a significant export contract riding on AUKUS, so we should not be stuffing them around either. We have already annoyed France. We can't afford to annoy the only other two countries that can realistically supply the RAN with SSNs.
The more the government makes such announcements about the AUKUS submarines, the less confident I am that the substantive analysis has been done.
Hi Anonymous [at Mar 7, 2022, 3:50:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteWith the Coalition behind in the polls Morrison seems to be clutching at any issue that may win his Government a few votes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election#Voting_intention
Another strategy is to drive a wedge between the Greens and ALP and between factions within the ALP. https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/03/naming-possible-east-coast-nuke-sub.html
I think Morrison considers winning the May Election trumps any consideration of a careful defence process or of sensible diplomatic relations with the AUKUS partners.
Regards
Pete
Pete
ReplyDelete“I think Morrison considers winning the May Election trumps any consideration of a careful defence process or of sensible diplomatic relations with the AUKUS partners.“
Yes that is the obvious conclusion. If it looks too obvious this may backfire on them both.
Hi Anonymous [at Mar 8, 2022, 8:41:00 AM]
ReplyDeleteYep nothing to worry about for politicians just passing through, who get high taxpayer funded pensions, on top of their Board Memberships and Ambassadorships.
Particularly Boris Johnson will recognise Moo-rrison-Dutton's ("Mutton's" newly coined here :) rather erratic pre-election governance.
Just Boris's style.
Meanwhile Biden is woken up bamboozled by those "guys" (he forgets their names) "Down Under".
Regards Pete