Submarine Matters last reported on the Russian conflict in Ukraine on January 25, 2022.
Now, explosions, be they Russian missiles, aircraft, shelling or Russian special forces sabotage, have been heard in, or near, several major Ukrainian cities since 3am London time, February 24, 2022.
"The Ukrainian president [an hour ago] said Russia has carried out missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and border guards and that explosions had been heard in many cities."
Other than Kiev (aka Kyiv) and Odessa other cities under attack are relatively obscure. To redress that see this list of Ukrainian cities, which includes their populations.
I thought maps would be useful to connect news with parts of Ukraine. See Maps below.
Russia has a cruiser, surface escorts, landing ships and at least three "636.3" Kilo class submarines in the Black Sea. All can threaten Ukraine with Kalibr anti-ship and land attack missiles, surface shelling and ships landing marine forces on the Ukrainian coast. (Map courtesy H I Sutton, COVERT SHORES, as at February 9, 2022. See map enlarged here.)
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In terms of Russian aggression near the Black Sea. Ukrainian residents of Odessa and Mariupol have reported Russian missile strikes or artillery shelling from Russian warships and/or nearby Russian controlled land bases. (Map courtesy Agency France Press). ---
The red stars mark reports of explosions, as at Feb 24, 2022. The star next to Moldova (where some Russian forces are stationed) is Ukraine's main naval port of Odessa. ---
This is a tragedy for the people of the Ukraine, with no obvious peaceful resolution in sight in my view. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia; Putin will lose credibility if he withdraws; the west will not intervene militarily.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, the Russian invasion only underlines the deteriorating security environment involving both China and Russia. In this environment, I cannot see either major Australian political party backing away from the need for RAN SSNs.
I think the criticism is more likely to be "why have you taken so long to decide this" rather than "why are you doing this"?
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteRussia has started invasion Ukraine, but France, a key pillar of NATO has dumped Australia from its list of close strategic partners because of cancellation of Shortfin [1]. As Russia’s anti-NATO strategy is based on its gas export to Europe and Australia’s LNG export helps Europe [2, 3], France’s decision to dump Australia at this critical situation is difficult to understand. There might be a backroom deal with France/Germany and Russia in expense of Ukraine’s independence [4], or simply Macron lacks sense of diplomacy?
[1] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/france-removes-australia-list-key-indo-pacific-partners-200772
“The move follows Canberra's decision to join AUKUS and cancel a major submarine contract with a French defense contractor.”
[2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-27/why-australia-is-offering-natural-gas-to-europe-ukraine-tensions/100784520
“Australia has offered to export more liquefied natural gas to Europe in light of Ukraine tensions. Here's why”
[3] Japan has started export its LNG to Europe.
[4] As silly Angela Merkel has abolished all of nuclear generation, Germany depends on nuclear generation electricity from France and LNG from Russia and cannot strongly resist Russia.
Regards
ReplyDeleteHi Pete
Ukraine Navy has a 50 years-old submarine, Zaporizhzhia which cannot resist the Black Sea Fleet of Russia at all.
According to Professor Takahashi [1], one of the possible economic sanctions against Russia is suspension of settlement using hard currencies (mainly USD, Euro, pound sterling, yen), which is de facto trade ban.
[1] Economist, Dr. Takahashi worked for Abe and Suga administrations in Japan.
Regards
Hi Anonymous [Feb 24, 2022, 6:47:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteYes Australian SSNs are necessary. Though the first will only arrive in 2038 according to imaginative politician Dutton.
Dutton being our next Liberal PM by 2026 - body hair makeover, eyebows and all, essential https://www.canberratimes.com.au/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/silverstone-feed-data/a5f706fc-b61e-4245-aa8c-c51d51518b90.jpg/r0_0_800_600_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg )
Better we buy Virginia Block Vs or VIs. We can use their six large VPT "silos" for SLBMs making some of them SSBNs.
Hi Anonymous [at Feb 24, 2022, 7:45:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteTo make UK/US nuclear omelettes we needed to break French diesel-electric eggs. French submarine cooking is overrated.
In terms of gas sanctions, I think, unfortunately, China will buy up all the Russian gas that NATO rejects.
Regards
Pete
Pete
ReplyDeleteFurther to my comments above that we need SSNs more than ever, I no longer have a strong view on whether they should be Astute/SSNR or Virginia block IV, V or VI.
We should build whichever design we can reliably get in the water fastest. Anything else is a dangerous distraction now, as the geopolitical risks for Australia are too great.
Yes, Sure, RAN needs SSN's.
ReplyDeleteMore important is more SSK's in the very near term with basing in allied ports closer to south China sea. Oh yes. Also need allies with ports.
Threat is much closer than 2038.
In a 9th May, 2014 article "Ukraine - Another Russian Invasion 2021?"
ReplyDeleteat https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2014/05/ukraine-can-anything-save-it.html
You predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine around 2021. Less than 2 months off. Submarines aside you have a talent for land predictions as well. Keep it up!
Zoey
Hi Anonymous [at Feb 24, 2022, 8:40:00 PM]
ReplyDelete1. Well spotted concerninng Uraine's "50 years-old submarine, Zaporizhzhia which cannot resist the Black Sea Fleet of Russia at all."
Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_submarine_Zaporizhzhia it seems many of its Ukrainian crew defected to the Russian Navy before or after Zaporizhzhia was captured by the Russians in 2014.
2. I'm hoping economic sanctions lead to the Russians withdrawing from Ukraine. Although I'm concerned China made a deal with Putin in early February 2022 that China:
- would increase its trade with Russia for most goods and services, and
- this would maintain Russia's foreign currency reserves using the Chinese Renmindi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi .
With the Renminbi being "the official currency of the People's Republic of China and one of the world's reserve currencies, ranking as the eighth most traded currency in the world as of April 2019"
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymouses [at Feb 24, 2022, 10:37:00 PM
ReplyDeleteand at Feb 25, 2022, 1:57:00 AM]
I'll respond on SSNs and SSKs for Australia next week. Russia may well have, unfortunately, invaded all of Ukraine by then..who knows!
Regards Pete
Thanks very much Zoey [at Feb 25, 2022, 11:46:00 AM]
ReplyDeleteI'd actually forgotten about my:
May 9, 2014 article "Ukraine - Another Russian Invasion 2021?"
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2014/05/ukraine-can-anything-save-it.html
As most of it seems still valid, I've republished it at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/02/ukraine-may-9-2014-article-remains-valid.html
of Feb 25, 2022.
Regards Pete