The US, UK and Australian Governments have urged their citizens and families of diplomats to leave Ukraine.
There is no role for Australian submarines or its other naval forces due to distant geography with Australia's government indicating it won't send military aid to Ukraine.
It is NATO naval forces (say in the Black Sea surrounding Crimea) as well as air and land forces who may be able to apply pressure on Russia.
But NATO appears not to want to send troops actually to Ukraine as this might give Russia a pretext to invade. Instead the US and other NATO countries have placed troops on high alert to move to eastern-central European countries like the Baltic states near Ukraine.
However indirect military aid may be sent. The Baltic States "Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said they plan to send US-made anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, a move endorsed by Washington."
On Ukraine:
- Putin aims may be merely political. To restate the oft forgotten obvious: Putin may be aiming at an official, or semi-official Finlandisation of Ukraine's foreign-defence policy - where Ukraine renounces any aims to join NATO.
- there is much focus on Russian forces massing north of Kiev.
- the Russian proxy militia and actual Russian forces, have already been in eastern Ukraine and Crimea for 8 years, seem to have been forgotten. See map below:
Situation in April 2021. Map courtesy Daily Mail.
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An invasion may come south down to Kiev, but also west from eastern Ukraine, and north from Crimea. See map below.
Possible Russian invasion routes and forces. Map courtesy news.com.au here, November 23, 2021.
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- More limited objective "salami slicing" the takeover of key territory in Eastern or other parts of Ukraine may take place
- Ukraine is unfortunately a deeply corrupt country. Its polticians may have little leadership credibility.
- Russian loyalty could be bought or threatened. This may make for a quick, little contested political and/or military takeover.
- Putin may not be concerned by equivocal "threatened" responses by Biden and other NATO leaders, especially if Putin just sees them as the usual economic sanctions.
- China could buy up more Russian oil and gas to defray such Western economic sanctions.
- January-February represent the depth of Winter in NATO's Europe when Russian gas for heating is most valued. Putin cutting off the gas (piped to some NATO countries) may seem worse than basically allowing a Russian taking over, of all or part of Ukraine.
However the US seems to have preempted any Russian gas pipeline threat. If Russia invades Ukraine, in late January 2022 the US threatened, to halt the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would send Russian gas to Western Europe. Nord Stream 2 would run from Russia to Germany.
Clearly the possibilities are wide open. Whether the NATO response represents deescalating prudence, appeasement, or something in between, is unknowable until more happens.
So what are Australia's options if China uses this as an opportunity for a move in the South China Sea? (Yes I know submarines not a viable option at this time)
ReplyDeleteThis can happen after Olympics, or perhaps after a "decent interval". Timing constraints are determined by Ukraine road conditions but are different here.
Also: While Russia is constrained by seasonal weather, Chinese moves are likelier to be further "salami slices". (Some famous writers description of his bankrupcy: gradually then suddenly...")
ReplyDeleteAUKUS/Australia has option to trade more salami slices for time. Perhaps sort of like 1938...
Hi Anonymous [att Jan 26, 2022, 3:05:00 AM]
ReplyDeleteThe whole Western Alliance has already watched, seemingly powerless, as China moved "in the South China Sea?" for around a decade.
The South China Sea situation is complicated by other countries in East Asia also claiming and occupying islands in the South China Sea.
Small/Middle powers like Australia can do nothing without hard nosed US leadership.
A major change after the Beijing Winter Olympics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics (next month) might be stepped up Chinese actions against Taiwan.
All this could coincide with stepped up Russian actions against Ukraine over the next 35 days.
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at Jan 26, 2022, 3:17:00 AM]
ReplyDelete1. Re "seasonal weather". Russia is probably the most experienced country in moving military units around in Winter. Note World War Two. In that sense Russia has the advantage in Winter weather over NATO and Ukraine ground forces.
2. Re China "salami slicing". China taking over Taiwan's small eastern islands, just off the Chinese coast is possible. Those are the Kinmen, Matsu and Wuqiu islands - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Geography .
3. Also Taiwan claims many South China Sea islands. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_claims
"Several countries have made competing territorial claims over the South China Sea. Such disputes have been regarded as Asia's most potentially dangerous point of conflict.
Both the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, commonly known as Taiwan) claim almost the entire body as their own, demarcating their claims within what is known as the "nine-dash line", which claims overlap with virtually every other country in the region."
Taiwan ALSO claiming the islands and ocean within the South China Sea "nine-dash line" makes the situation legally. politically and militarally very complex.
Pete