Nicky has raised the issue:
"Hi Pete, What's your take on China gifting Myanmar the Type035B Ming class Submarine. Even though the submarine is an old design from the old soviet Romeo class Submarine. Do they still have any value in the submarine community today."
The Bay of Bengal. A focus of strategic competition between small navies newly (or soon to be) supplied with Chinese submarines. The Bay is also an arena of competition between the large Indian and Chinese navies.
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- justifies a long term naval and military intelligence presence of Chinese advisers (particularly Chinese engineer and other officers) who need to be present on the submarine at sea while justifying additional Chinese advisers at Myanmar shore bases.
- this training sub might generate sale of Chinese submarines to Myanmar for further Chinese intelligence iopportunities, power projection and profit. These future subs would be used operationally.
- is a response to China's strategic competitor India's March 2020 provision of the old Sindhughosh/Kilo-class submarine, to Myanmar. That sub is the former INS Sindhuvir (S58) renamed UMS Minye Theinkhathu in Myanmar service, also used for training.[30][31][33]
- creates Chinese built submarine competition with other small navies, namely:
: Bangladesh with the two Type 035s China supplied in 2016 and
: Thailand. China is supplying three expert spec Yuans (designated S26Ts to
Thailand. This is noting Thailand's east coast Gulf of Thailand is too shallow for
daytime operations. Thailand's Yuan variants will likely spend more time operating in the
deeper waters of Andaman Sea/Bay of Bengal off Thailand's west coast.
: Bangladesh with the two Type 035s China supplied in 2016 and
: Thailand. China is supplying three expert spec Yuans (designated S26Ts to
Thailand. This is noting Thailand's east coast Gulf of Thailand is too shallow for
daytime operations. Thailand's Yuan variants will likely spend more time operating in the
deeper waters of Andaman Sea/Bay of Bengal off Thailand's west coast.
The subs provided to Bangladesh and now Myanmar, with some Chinese trainer officers on board, provides extra opportunities in the Bay of Bengal for China to spy on Indian submarines entering and leaving India's main east coast/Bay of Bengal submarine/naval base at Visakhapatnam aka Vizag.
Creation of submarine competition by selling subs to strategic competitors can be a very lucrative dynamic for submarine building companies/countries. Germany's TKMS selling Type 209, 212 and or 214 subs is a case in point in creating Mediterranean Sea competition. In the Mediterranean TKMS has built or supplied submarine parts for the navies of Greece vs Turkey. Egypt and again Turkey vs Israel, also Portugal and supplying designs and parts for Italy.
China has the growing political influence and industrial muscle to increasingly create regional markets amongst strategic competitors.
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteDo you think the Type035 Ming class Submarines have any combat value today or are the relegated to training use only. I would think for a country starting out in the Submarine club, the Type035 Ming class Submarines would have some value for ISR, basic EEZ patrols and Coastal patrols.
I think China is likely gona use the Type035 Ming class Submarines as a diplomatic tool to sell submarines to countries who can't afford anything from Europe and Russia.
Hi Nicky
ReplyDeleteYour conclusiuons generally tie in with my article above. That is:
- Myunmar's Ming being mainly of training value.
- if that Ming were operational it would, like all SSKs in peacetime, be involved in "ISR, basic EEZ patrols and Coastal patrols". Myanmar's Ming, with some Chinese training advisors aboard, may be integrated with China's broader surveillance network against Indian activity in the Bay of Bengal/Indian Ocean.
- China may initially have supplied the Ming at a discount, even for free. But once hooked Myunmar would more likely pay Chinese market rates for export spec Yuans along the lines China is supplying to Thailand and Pakistan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_039A_submarine#Export
Pete
China, as we know has a very big navy on todays averages and the running costs are significant to say the least. The naval assets of China that are excess to requirements are better value to China to hand over to allies rather that mothball those assets. By passing them on, it’s cheap influence in the region. We all know that Asia is becoming a submarine saturation risk in the next decade and this is great policy for the CCP, even when in reality these assets are barely that. Perception is everything.
ReplyDeleteThanks Lee
ReplyDeleteFor your comment. Very true gifting subs to allies (or even to neutrals) it better for China than letting the subs rust in "mothballs".
Happy New Year
Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteI simply think that China is starting to unload the MING's to countries that want SSK submarines and are aligned with China. Mings are a perfect export option because look at what they are building more and the MING's getting outclassed by other submarines.
Hi pete,
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting video of what the Chinese Ming class submarines look like
https://youtu.be/XG-J_3TExv0
Thanks Nicky
ReplyDeletePete