It may be a truism that all submarine projects run overdue and over budget. A case in point is Sweden's A-26/Blekinge-class subs - now to be delivered in "2027-28". Another case is the Netherlands' Walrus replacement subs which might only be delivered in the 2030s.
Politicians, officials and companies regularly and safely under-quote how long and how much a submarine project will be, due to the factors below.
Submarine budgets run so long that politicians can claim they inherited the delay-cost problem. While politicians, officials and companies often quote "10 years" new submarine projects typically run for 15 years - from announced winner to first sub commissioned.
No single minister or person is held responsible because submarine building involves so many leaders and interests. This includes 15+ years worth of ministers for employment, regional development, high-technology, finance defence and whole of government prime ministers-presidents. Other leaders include heads of main submarine building company and or foreign country, heads of navy, of defence force and heads of materiel organisations. Over the course of a 15 year project even the head project manager changes.
Costs can always be re-explained as increasing due to inflation or that year 1 dollars vary from year 15 dollars. All of a project's costs might fail to be allocated to that project - intentionally and due to secrecy. Design changes due to failures to communicate, forgetfulness, changing technology and changing threat environments can always justify higher costs.
The public has a shorter memory than 15 years and submarine issues are so complex, with so many leaders and interests, that blaming a politician isn't possible.
Governments don't think in 15+ year spans. More like 2 to 5 years to win the next election. "Win the Next Election" being the first Law of Politics. One can't do "good things" if one isn't in power.
Would you believe Australia's 20+ year project to build its first nuclear submarine may result in the most "surprisingly" overdue, over budget submarine project in history?
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteDo you think the new Israeli subs will be on cost and time?
Israel Orders 3 New Dakar-Class Submarines From TKMS
"thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) has reached an agreement with the Israeli Ministry of Defence on the framework conditions for the purchase of three Dakar-class submarines. After extensive negotiations, all parties involved agreed to the technical content and contractual provisions on Thursday.
The Dakar-class will be of a completely new design, which is to be specifically engineered to fulfil the operational requirements of the Israeli Navy. The three submarines will replace the first batch of Dolphin-class submarines.
Dr Rolf Wirtz: “In the last joint project with the Israeli Navy, the SA’AR-6 project, we delivered four corvettes on time and within budget. In this respect, we are very much looking forward to working with our longstanding partner again.”
Before the contract comes into effect, thyssenkrupp Marine Systems will have to hold intensive talks with its suppliers.
In preparation for the expected order, thyssenkrupp had already agreed to investments of about 250 million euro for thyssenkrupp Marine Systems in 2019. Kiel is thus securing its location as an international centre of competence for conventional submarine construction. Construction of a new shipbuilding hall and a fuel-cell production facility is already visible on the shipyard site."
You can also check out Israel’s Submarine Secret: New Dolphin-IIs Could Have VLS link in the article.
/Kjell
Hi /Kjell
ReplyDeleteI've got to admit obvious exceptions to my broad "All Submarine Projects Overdue, Over Budget." claim.
This is the Japanese continuous-build one submarined per year system. This not only is apparently on budget but on time - actually launching subs on the planned month. This is usually October, sometimes November eg. see the TABLE here https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/10/second-taigei-class-japanese-sub.html
Pete
Hi again /Kjell [your Jan 20, 2022, 11:48:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteThanks for your quote from https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/01/israel-orders-3-new-dakar-class-submarines-from-tkms/
TKMS seems to have an extended continous build agreement with Israel. In part this is because Germany founds around one-third of the cost of Dolphin subs as part of a post-Holocaust humanitarian agreement.
This subsidization may guarantee Israel receive the Dolphins at the planned price.
---------------
1. The VLS rumour identified at https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/01/israels-submarine-secret-new-dolphin-class-boat-could-have-vls/ for the future Dakar-class Dolphin 3s is judiciosly discussed and drawn by H I Sutton
VLS may turn out to be correct.
This is especially as experience is gained with the VLS on what I would say is the part TKMS designed South Korean KSS-III.
2. H I Sutton rightly also refers to the possibility "propulsion" explains the size increase.
3. I also theorise that the size increase of around 1,800 tonnes for the Typre 212A to over 2,500 tonnes for the future German-Norwegian Type 212CDs may have directly influenced the Dolphin 3 design for Israel. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_212CD_submarine .
A Dolphin 3 heavyer than 2,500 tonnes may permit a whole combination of things:
eg.
- more diesel for greater range
- more AIP chemicals for longer submerged
- more food and space for longer crew endurance
- more heavyweight shots including torpedos
- more nuclear tipped missiles, even if just torpedo tube launched.
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteIf compared with the TKMS's 212CD it doesn't prove to be that easy as the design was rejected 2 times and first in the third try was approved by Norway and Germany and all parties have put out different prices.
/Kjell