Days ago US forces in Afghanistan warned of the risk of suicide bombing in or around Kabul Airport. A major explosion has occurred in the last few hours - details are unclear. Here's a report.
The US Government would already be aware of the risk that low flying passenger transport aircraft might be shot down landing or taking off from Kabul Airport.
The Taliban have not yet shot down US or other
military transport aircraft carrying refugees from Kabul Airport due to the
Taliban’s deal with the US Government. This deal is set to end in a week, on
August 31.
The Taliban are not a monolithic totally disciplined
army, but many tribal groups that have been given the “Taliban” label, with their own agendas. Also non-Taliban, Islamic terrorist groups, already in Afghanistan, may have their own ideas. Some groups may ignore the Taliban-US deal and
explode bombs or fire on aircraft before the August 31 deadline, aka “redline”.
The US and other transport aircraft can be seen dropping
flares when leaving Kabul Airport to draw off Taliban or terrorist shoulder fired
heat seeking missiles.
The Taliban are aware that the aircraft are not
safe from much more common RPG7 unguided missiles as the RPG7 missiles cannot
be drawn off by flares and may be unjammable.
Also the Taliban would be aware their heavy (50 calibre up)
machineguns can shoot down aircraft. Such machineguns (up to 14.5mm)
and frequently mounted on pickup trucks, were made in Russia and sold through
many middle men.
But the majority of the heavy machineguns are US made 50 calibre M2 Brownings gifted by the US to the Afghan Army who, in turn, gifted them to the Taliban, over the last few weeks. These may be mounted on pickups or the many Humvees captured by the Taliban or Humvees gifted by the Afghan Army to the Taliban.
The day Dubya's policy ADHD caused him to drunkenly lurch to Iraq in 2003, US's Afghan war outcome was baked/cooked as a 'major defeat'. I predicted this to my US colleague in 2016.
ReplyDeleteThe uniquely American ability to be utterly pigheaded in the light of pretty clear facts made this ignominy a foregone conclusion leaving 'American Credibility' a laughing stock.
1. The US knew the pakistanis midwifed the taliban and suckled it at the state's teats (not to mention the great airlift of taliban from Kunduz and Mazar e Sharif as US closed in, mostly on PAF C-130s, why america thanks a lot!--> what a bunch of gormless drongos!)
2. The US knew the wahabi extremists in the GCC were routing funds through formal channels and through informal hundi/hawala channels to the talibs all the time. Did diddly squat
3. The US knew that US/ISAF troops were directly dying due to pakistan supported taliban attacks, yet, Dubya and Obama allowed the US to be milked like a swollen milch cow right upto OBL's death day.
4. The US helped the Saudis gain IRBMs from China in 2007 despite knowing these Wahabi thugs were arming the taliban to the teeth
The list is much longer Sir...it is exhausting to the list the bungles...the pakistanis played the US like a vintage Stradivarius violin.
PS: Reminded of Blackadder where Stephen Fry as Melchett says: 'If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
Atkinson/Blackadder: For us, the Great War is finito, a war which would be a damn sight simpler if we just stayed in England and shot fifty thousand of our men a week.
Satire as military policy? sure why not? after all clowns were in charge....
Hi Ghalib Kabir
ReplyDeleteYour rundown on on the inconsistencies of America's Afghan, Pakiastan, Saudi and terrorism policies looks valid.
But note, in the early 2000s President George W Bush's Afghan and Iraq policies had strong bipartisan and popular support in the US.
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My own concern is there is a pattern in the US ideological expections that parliamentary democracy can be forced onto countries - from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan.
Upsetting the democracy goal and the ability of local forces to defend their country once US forces leave is another pattern. That is the more materiel/weapons given to local forces the bigger the blackmarket dynamic. Also the more cash injected into a country for civilian institutions and for armed forces the more rampant the corruption destroying the political fabric.
In the end Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan collapsed because local government officials, politicians and miliatary offices were able to amass SO MUCH US MONEY that they could bribe their way out of those countries and resettle in comfort in third countries like the UAE and most commonly the US itself. In the meantime the then leaderless local troops collapsed all the more rapidly - most lately in Afghanistan.
Pete