India may feel more secure during Pakistan's low submarine
availability, but China may be helping make up the difference. Of Pakistan's
fleet of 5 (conventional Agosta) submarines Pakistan normally has 3 or 4
potentially available. But now Pakistan only has two available.
Drawing from
this article of
August 12, 2021:
3
of Pakistan's 5
Agostas are either being upgraded or have defects, making them
unavailable.
Currently,
only 2 Pakistani submarines are available till the middle of 2022,. These are:
- PNS Hamza an Agosta 90B (with MESMA AIP like the other 2 x 90Bs), and
- PNS Hashmat, a 42 year old Agosta 70 .
In
contrast, those unavailable are:
- PNS
Hurmat, an Agosta 70, with one of its 2 diesels broken and problems with its Electronic
Warfare Support Measures system. This is not surprising as Hurmat is 41 years
old.
- PNS
Saad, an Agosta 90B submarine is in dry dock, being refitted until 2024. This is
an extended period meaning Pakistan must have a very inefficient submarine
overhaul system. The overhaul may permit use of Sea Hake torpedos and nuclear
tipped Babur 3 cruise missiles, and
- PNS Khalid, another Agosta 90B is being refitted, with COVID-related delays.
China may only start delivering the first of the export variant S20 Yuan-class submarines to Pakistan in 2023-24.
India,
in comparison, is better with:
- 3 new Kalvari class Scorpenes and 3 more to follow
- 4 Shishumar class Type 209s, and
- 8 Sindhughosh Kilo class submarines.
India also has:
- the small SSBN INS
Arihant, currently armable with 12 small K15 SLBMs or 4 larger K4s
in future.
and
- the one submarine India is gaining, INS
Arighat (aka "S3") may be the same size as Arihant or
slightly larger. It began harbour trials in 2020, may undertake sea trials
later in 2021 and may perhaps be commissioned in late 2022. It may potentially carry 24 x K15s (available now) or 8 larger K4s in future.
What India lacks is any SSNs (may have some locally built in 12 years) which are essential to protect its SSBNs by searching for and countering Chinese SSNs. India did have an apparently unarmed Russian SSN, INS
Chakra 2 for crew and maintainer training and technology transfer.
Chakra 2 (ex Nerpa) was on 10 year lease and was seen
apparently returning to Russia in
June 2021.
But, in any case, one SSN is insufficient to protect an Indian SSBN, particularly when that SSBN is making predictable movements leaving or returning
to India's current SSBN base at main Naval HQ East, Vishakhapatnam. At least
3 Indian SSNs are needed to counter an enemy SSN. This takes into account one
SSN being overhauled, SSN tactics, the Arihant class likely being noisy and overall
the Rule
of Thirds.
Returning to Pakistan's 2 available subs. China is Pakistan's senior ally and more specifically the ally that is building new submarines forPakistan. China may be currently assisting Pakistan by deploying a Yuan class SSK (in Pakistani waters) and/or even an SSN (in those waters or maybe in the Bay of Bengal). This is while India is lulled into a false sense of security while Pakistan is in submarine deficit. China would dearly love to get a sub close to INS Arihant or Arighat to discern those Indian SSBN's audio signal profiles, other emissions, strategy and tactics.
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteThe Chakra 2 was not totally unarmed. It was allowed to be armed with Klub missiles upto 300 km range i.e. original MTCR restrictions applied as of 2012 lease start and of course torpedoes are allowed. SSNs will come online slowly only. India became MTCR member in 2016 and is now within sight of being able to deploy LACMs and AShCMs on subs w/o Russian help.
Chinese SSN deputations to the Bay of Bengal and to the Arabian sea are much more common than you have mentioned. Type 93s regularly show up at the Chinese base in Hambantota Sri Lanka and at Gwadar in Pakistan. Pakistan is again on the verge of financial crisis and hence cannot throw money away to upgrade the old french made subs any more.
One of the reasons the US-Japan SOSUS was expanded to Chennai and the Indian Navy is now expanding listening posts in Seychelles and negotiating an airstip for the P-8s near Mauritius is precisely because Chinese DDG type 052D, type 93 subs and type 54 frigates are now a regular presence
You will see a peculiar sight soon on India's Russian made carrier, MH-60R ASW missions will start to get the personnel ready for deployment of the under delivery 24 MH-60Rs
Thanks GhalibKabir
ReplyDeleteI'll turn your disturbing news into an article next week.
With all those Chinese subs and naval surface ships visiting the Indian Ocean
it may be time to call it the West China Sea!
Cheers
Pete
Thanks Pete. I, GhalibKabir, point out:
ReplyDeleteIt is part of a well known Chinese plan called the "String of Pearls" and an extension of the three island chain policy to a five island chain policy with the fourth chain running few 100 km off India’s coast. While the fifth chain is allegedly supposed to lie off the African East Coast - extending from the Red Sea entrance to the South African area of the Cape of Good Hope.
The Chinese strenuously deny it but the bases at SCS shoals, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Djibouti are clear indicators of Chinese thinking. Mini flotilla presence aided by Type 093s under the pretext of anti piracy patrols is now a reality, since 2010 at least. The SSNs even use the Sunda Strait rather than the Malacca Strait to pass through. They were picked by Indian P-8s in recent years and made evasive moves in the Bay of Bengal region apparently. The reason to rush MH-60R procurements was also for the same reason - tracking subs better.