Sparked by GhalibKabir’s interesting comment of December 2, 2020 is my comment below.
Yes Russia is very unlikely to accept Indian export of BrahMos to Australia.
In any case Australia
politically would reject joint Russian-Indian missile BrahMos because it is
part Russian. Australia would be relying on the US to work out countermeasures Against BrahMos.
On an electronic intel level BrahMos might be packaged with hidden extra Russian spyware software. That may also render it inoperable in attempted use against target ships carrying Russian friend-or-foe transmitters.
Past Russian nuclear and missile assistance to India's Nirbhay, nuclear capable cruise missile, would also turn off Australia.
There may be more interest likely in Israel's small "Baby Boomer" SSB platform supersonic endrun Popeye Turbo n-SLCM.
More overtly (and in joint Australia-US character) is:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/01/australia/hypersonic-missile-australia-us-intl-hnk/index.html of Dec 1, 2020 "Australia partners with US to develop hypersonic missiles"
"(CNN) Australia will jointly develop hypersonic cruise missiles with the United States in a bid to counter China and Russia which are developing similar weapons, Defence Minister Linda Reynolds said on Tuesday.
"We will continue to invest in advanced capabilities to give the Australian Defence Force more options to deter aggression against Australia's interests," Reynolds said in a statement.
She did not reveal the cost of developing the missiles or when they would be operational.
Australia had set
aside up to 9.3 billion Australian dollars ($6.8 billion) this year for
high-speed, long-range missile defense systems, including hypersonic research..."
Likely synonymous with the US developing a larger longer range SM-6 - with SM-6 already ordered by Australia. Australia may be part funding the enlarged version. Also see “This is likely to be the SM6 missile”
An authenticly hypersonic US missile, that might be passed on to Australia by the 2030s, is the under development - see "Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS)" missile.
I haven't read much about Vietnam building an n-deterrent (with Russian help?) but it would make sense against China. However Vietnam might reason that it would need a too large, hence unaffordable deterrent, to give China pause. I see Vietnam has curtailed its nuclear energy plans.
Philippines is still under US Treaty/control [see Diplomat paysite] stopping Phils doing its own n-deterrent.
I class Phils with Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Myanmar as being (understandably) too frozen in fear in Chinese headlights to contemplate a n-deterrent. It cannot be easy for the mainland Southeast Asian countries, knowing they are but a short Chinese tank drive away.
Indonesia already has the money to go nuclear, but that would form the major headache for Australia - enough for Australia to also go down the n road.
Indonesia is not ready to go anywhere near n-capability from a money, capability or intent perspective. At approx US$ 9-10 billion, the defense budget can barely pay for the upkeep of the current force structure (kinda barely decent for a country of its size)...It satisfies two crucial observed criteria though, it has a > US$ 1 trillion economy and an area of > 1 million sq.km...
ReplyDeletebarring UK and Israel, most nations that have gone nuclear are very large in terms of area, have proportionately big economies, a decent technology base and have built up a variety of engineering abilities spanning over decades...Of the P-5+1 (India), India has possibly the weakest technology base, and Indonesia is not anywhere close to even India currently.
(nuclear weapons 'on lease' nuisance value players such as pakistan or NK don't count here)
Rest of the lot in ASEAN are far less capable in economic and military terms, with Vietnam being the exception due to sheer resolve shown in the past... however, economic constraints are real for them as well...if a trillion dollar plus economy (with a decent technology base) like Australia is very likely to struggle for decades to make n-weapons or SLBM/SLCMs....reality dictates much more remote prospects for other ASEAN nations.
The conclusion is inescapable, uncle sam needs to construct a coalition of 'middle powers' from ANZ to Japan to India...Only an united front that shows real geo-politico and military intent will make china pause and do 'deals' while effusively self praising their own 'unprecedented good will' while all it might actually mean is a milder bloody nose for china's asian compatriots.the next 3 decades are going to be very precarious and uncomfortable...too many naked butts sitting on thorny geopolitical cacti.
Given pressing issues like climate change induced water shortages or looming climate refugee catastrophe in Asia (by 2045-47..), I find it extremely disappointing that TPTB have found yet another way to behave like unbelievably irresponsible boofheads.
Hi GhalibKabir
ReplyDelete@ December 4, 2020 at 9:02 PM
INDONESIA
Yes most of Indonesia’s military budget is allocated to internal security (keeping its archipelagic islands people’s and wayward ex-Generals under centralised control).
But as Australia is considered one of the potential strategic threats to Indonesia – if Australia planned to become nuclear armed then Indonesia would. A similar trend has been Australia’s 2009 policy decision for 12 subs which was followed in Indonesia by a new need (in some quarters) for 12 subs.
Indonesia did not establish
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Indonesia#National_Nuclear_Energy_Agency_(BATAN) for longterm nuclear energy possibilities alone.
An additional Australian concern is that if Indonesia built land reactors Indonesia's recent history of Tsunamis, volcanic instability and earthquakes could lead to catastrophic regional nuclear disasters.
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SMALL COUNTRIES CAN GO NUCLEAR
Still North Korea is a small area, poor, low technology base country that has built its nuclear weapons IN ADDITION to having a large internal security budget. NK nuclear missiles constitute a major nuclear threat to SK and Japan.
Potential turn-key nuclear help for Singapore by Israel should not be dismissed.
Vietnam is vastly larger and richer than nuclear armed NK has ever been. Possible Russian nuclear weapons help to Vietnam a future option...
Anti-China? Australia could make gun-type nuclear freefall bombs (like South Africa completed on a shoestring budget) given our wealth and industrial base. Air-refueled F-35As can have many missions.
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ALLIANCES UNDER BIDEN
ANZUS and the Quad can/do coordinate with many other democratic regional countries (from NZ to SK). But yes the US needs to show more overt leadership and more alliance building.
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REGIME SURVIVAL GREATER THAN CLIMATE CHANGE
Addressing Climate Change (CC) under severe population/pollution/water/land pressures will always place uncertain CC temperature concerns as afterthoughts compared to China’s Regime Survival.
The powers that be (TPTB) would be aware that “water shortages or looming climate refugee catastrophe” will likely trigger China to seize or spread its population SOUTH
into poorly protected Laos, Cambodia, Thailand even Bangladesh by 2040s.
Plentiful water, few people, energy, minerals and poor defences of NORTHERN AUSTRALIA might also be enticing for China’s “Lebensraum”.
North Korea initially used a chinese model that was in turn probably a tweaked version of a failed french 60-80 kt WGU test design. They got it through china indirectly as pakistan probably leaked n-design in exchange for the Nodong and Taepodong missiles...(named shamelessly after invaders Ghaznavi, Abdali and Ghauri who pillaged the subcontinent and resulted in many women being raped/enslaved or both...this is what cultural orphanhood can do to a state)..you can see the journeys made by PAF C-130s from Lop Nor in 1979-81 to their trips from KCL in Kahuta to Pyongyang till 2004. 'Nuclear Walmart R Us' or 'N version of Coles' was in full flow.
ReplyDeleteSo this NK program being indigenous doesn't stand up to even cursory scrutiny. It is a Wayang style puppet show by China throughout with pakistan on the right hand and NK on the left. This Ababeel MIRV MRBM is another insulting puppet show as china clearly has everything to do with a potential NK and pakistan thermonuclear device.
Real intent by the Quad+any other partner nations, in terms of political stance, trade cooperation and military posturing will be the only way out. Even that, as I mentioned, will only ensure we get away with a small bloody nose gift wrapped as a gesture of co-existential peace/goodwill by China. Else, the Quad might as well form a musical band called 'men without scrotal sacs' and do something more useful....
PS: Mekong, Indus, Brahmaputra all dammed already...water 'Lebensraum' is being rolled out, not to mention the second, third and even fourth island chain claims that are nothing but Lebensraum by another name...I feel very cynical when I see the never ending antics of islamists, evangelicals and communists (=chinese)..lethal than the drug ICE...I am not very hopeful that these groups are capable of mending their ways and being tolerant...
Australia has been nuclear capable for decades (at least the free fall bomb type). Nuclear missiles is another question. We don’t even need nuclear reactors to do it. We have purposely not gone down that path but we have not stopped the technological development that allows it. For those in doubt, check laser enrichment. I think I will leave it there.
ReplyDeleteI think Bangladesh is pretty safe. The country is already overpopulated. An all out fight with India would not be in China’s best interest (India surround’s Bangladesh). War between major powers never ends well, even if you win. The biggest problems are Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Philippines & Taiwan. Vietnam is someone China has tried before & did not come out as well as they expected (China has not fought a real war against any sort of opposition for more than 75 years - except Vietnam). The problem for China in SE Asia is just about everyone potentially involved has more experience fighting such a war than they do.
Hi again GhalibKabir
ReplyDelete@ December 7, 2020 at 6:11 PM
N-WEAPONS PROLIF
Those Frenchies gave a “failed” “60-80 kt WGU test design” to China?! Have they no integrity? Surely a viable French design for Big Bucks would be more in character!
What is WGU? and how did it get to China?
Did A.Q. Khan nick it via his URENCO connections?
Why would China give any n-weapons designs to that petulant NK on its doorstep?
QUAD
Hopefully Biden’s less-sacked-Please defence policy team will organise allies into a more potent Quad. Also more Quad coordination with SK, Taiwan and Singapore makes sense.
CHINA
Maybe some Kissenger Mk.2 can engineer rapprochement with Russia against joint enemy China. Even the Russians are worried about the growing Chinese giant over their southern border.
Coming regional Hot war with China seems inevitable unless there is some USSR democratisation of the type that ended the Cold War.
Still, China’s insatiable need for water and land will unfortunately remain a factor under any political complexion.
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [your December 7, 2020 at 11:41]
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately free fall bombs (without B-2/B-21 stealth bomber delivery) have been obsolete against the Chinas of this world for 30 years.
SILEX (laser enrichment) has been described in my blog since 2018 (see point “3.” at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2018/03/hitachi-asset-in-japans-comprehensive.html ) if not earlier.
Also see http://www.silex.com.au/Silex/media/Corporate-Governance/3-SLX-Operational-Update-2020-08-27-final.pdf?ext=.pdf
Naturally SILEX is meant to be the possession of our US/Japanese (Hitachi) betters and "We know nothink" as Sergeant Shulz, Hogan's Heroes, would say :)
Yes invasion of Bangladesh would be counterproductive for China given Bang’s liberation was mixed up in the Indo-Pak 1971 War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War
Indeed China’s more promising client states (for renewed Han settlement) include Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Taiwan is already crowded but an essential prize for Xi's Regime.
Vietnam is formidable itself and Russia may, conceivably, come to its aid.
China will need to relearn the art of Hot War in the Middle East/Central Asia/Africa like all other self-respecting (US, Russian, European and Australian) militaries.
Cheers
Pete
Pete@@ December 7, 2020 at 6:11 PM
ReplyDeleteThe available open source info says the Chinese filched it from the French and made it workable as they were still testing through the 90s. (In any case besides USSR, Areva has been very helpful with the Enrichment cascades in China, 1 million SWU in just facility, not to mention falling over their heels to sell the EPR for power plants).
WGU is Weapons Grade Uranium. As an ex pakistani general so boastfully stated in his memoirs, the chinese loaded 35 kgs of WGU and a complete weapons design on to a PAF C-130 in early 1981 at Lop Nor.
China would simply kept quiet when AQ Khan passed on n-designs to the NK folks using the PAF to ferry n-stuff to pyongyang and bring back missile stuff o the return trip.. a profitable trade see..may be the Chinese decided to tolerate the NK weapon as a poison pill option against the pesky SK fellows and their American protector.
In any case they passed on weapons grade uranium, weapon design, enrichment support such as 5,000 ring magnets, M-11 SRBM sales, not to mention industrial scale arming of pakistan since 2005 as a nuisance creator on India's western borders...and not to mention helping pakistan shield terrorists like saeed of the LeT and JeM head azhar at the UN with a veto..
Hi GhalibKabir
ReplyDelete@your December 9, 2020 at 2:49 PM
See my article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/12/nuke-weapons-prolif-to-from-china-pak.html of Dec 11, 2020 in response.
Regards
Pete