The Trump Administration is creating international confrontations to encourage the US voter rally-around-the President-in-times-of crisis-effect. Its an election year you know , November 3rd... So Trump:
- ordered closure of China's Houston Consulate. China may retaliate by closing a similar sized US
Consulate in China.
- has doubled the number of Nimitz-class carrier battle groups to 2 in China's near seas, to encourage
in a Chinese reaction. Also see the rise in US warship FONOPs in the South China Sea in 2020.
- Trump is working with his good friend Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, on a plan for
Israel to annex areas of the West Bank before the November 2020 Elections. Trump will step
into this timely crisis as "Peacemaker" to make Israel and some Palestinians happy. Arab countries
will likely object, raising the price of oil, worrying Americans as they rally-around President
Trump.
Timely confrontations with Iran, Russia (thankyou Trump's friend Putin) or North Korea might also be the types of crises to boost votes for Trump.
One can always say that crises happen anyway and China's actions deserve reactions. But get ready for a predictable "inexplicable" increase in crises - before November 3, 2020.
Pete
- ordered closure of China's Houston Consulate. China may retaliate by closing a similar sized US
Consulate in China.
- has doubled the number of Nimitz-class carrier battle groups to 2 in China's near seas, to encourage
in a Chinese reaction. Also see the rise in US warship FONOPs in the South China Sea in 2020.
- Trump is working with his good friend Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, on a plan for
Israel to annex areas of the West Bank before the November 2020 Elections. Trump will step
into this timely crisis as "Peacemaker" to make Israel and some Palestinians happy. Arab countries
will likely object, raising the price of oil, worrying Americans as they rally-around President
Trump.
Timely confrontations with Iran, Russia (thankyou Trump's friend Putin) or North Korea might also be the types of crises to boost votes for Trump.
One can always say that crises happen anyway and China's actions deserve reactions. But get ready for a predictable "inexplicable" increase in crises - before November 3, 2020.
Pete
I am guessing the US is doubling the carrier battle group in the SCS because the balance of power is shifting to China within the 1st island chain.
ReplyDeleteIt is conceivable that a "minor" clash could occur between opposing naval forces in the foreseeable future. In doubling the CVNs, US ensure that a clash will not be so "minor" and therefore the occurrence of such a clash can be eliminated or minimized or pushed out until a suitable time?
KQN
Hi KQN
ReplyDeleteAlso things seem currently quiet in Middle East/Afghanistan/Iran (little Islamic State activity). So redeployment of a second carrier group to the SCS may make sense.
Yes 2 US carrier group could lift the threshold deterring any Chinese troublemaking.
But deployment reasons are not just singular. Many political reasons would also go into power projection deployments. A reason may include just 101 days to the Presidential Election. https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?p0=263&iso=20201103T00&msg=2020%20US%20Presidential%20Election
Regards
Pete
Pete,
ReplyDeleteI agree. Re-election no doubt plays a role. Senior officials are however moving the relation to a point of no return (so the next administration cannot change it). It does not help that public opinion, whether in US or at least in Western Europe, is hardly positive on China following the pandemic. We are now at the start of a Cold War and an intense period of competition that will follow.
KQN
Hi KQN [at July 26, 2020 at 6:29 AM]
ReplyDeleteYes China is now indeed the other party in a Cold War with the US. China's late response to COVID-19, and stepped up SCS and East China Sea actions don't help.
With Russia being on good terms with Iran and becoming more active in Syria and Afghanistan its suprising there is no renewed US-Russia Cold War. But then again Trump is inexplicably friendly with Putin.
Did Putin help Trump (long before 2016) out of bankruptsy, twice?
Cheers
Pete
Further on Trump's love for Putin, from pretty good sources: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/12/16/mueller-exposes-putins-hold-over-trump/#1019a52c48f6
ReplyDelete"It now turns out that Putin knew what the American people didn’t, namely that Donald Trump was throughout the 2016 presidential primary campaign secretly negotiating to build a huge and lucrative hotel in Moscow, which required the personal support of Vladimir Putin. The fact that Putin knew about Trump’s secret dealings, while the American people didn’t, meant that if Trump didn’t do what Russia wanted, Russia could expose Trump’s lies and so bring him down."
Will Trump's long delayed tax records expose this in time?