Following
my article "Eden-Monaro By-Election: Gov Lost on Preferences-Bushfires
Link"
of July 7, 2020, I made the comment on July 13, 2020, below the article, along
the lines:
1/ My July 7, 2020 article argued that the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP) preferences to the Labor Party, in the July 4th, 2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election, decided the Election in favour of Labor. I also argue it was Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison's "unannounced overseas holiday with his family to Hawaii during the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season" that angered rural people in the Eden-Monrao Electorate. It was this that may have led to the SFFP directing its preferences to Labor.
"Where was the Deputy Prime Minister in all this?" You have touched on a major problem. The Deputy Prime Minister then-and-now is a "stuffed shirt" numbers man who heads the National Party coalition partner. The Nationals are an essential partner the ruling Liberals despair in knowing they must keep on good terms with to govern.
2/ Leader of the Opposition Labor Party Albanese now (like Kim Beazley years ago (but Beazley was a great Ambassador to the US)) is an uninspiring Labor leader. "Nice" isn't enough, indeed. Labor's election strategy is more the hope the overall-popular-Liberals will make major mistakes (and/or fall out with the Nationals) by 2022, than Labor winning on charismatic, better policy, merit.
3/ The SFFP are more than disillusioned "National Party voters". Australian politics for decades has been balance-of-power determined by minor parties like the Australian Greens and once the now invisible Australian Democrats. Now the growing SFFP has preference power over the 3 main parties (the Liberals, Nationals and Labor).
The politically unstable National Party now represents big agri-businesses including large Darling River water stealers, billionaire Arab horse stud owners and even massive Chinese owned farms. Under the table political donations, from powerful monied interests, are a fact of life for the 3 main parties.
The SFFP are more than just small-medium farmers and small town voters, but many center-right people dissatisfied with All of the 3 main parties. The SFFP recognise their votes and preferences would be wasted if they delivered them to a main party that already had the highest number of First Preference votes. A well directed preference strategy, as practiced by SFFP, is inching towards holding the balance of power in future years.
4/ "Rural people" love politics, because by backing swing parties like the SFFP, it can give rural people disproportionate political power compared to the majority of people in the cities.
"Where was the Deputy Prime Minister in all this?" You have touched on a major problem. The Deputy Prime Minister then-and-now is a "stuffed shirt" numbers man who heads the National Party coalition partner. The Nationals are an essential partner the ruling Liberals despair in knowing they must keep on good terms with to govern.
2/ Leader of the Opposition Labor Party Albanese now (like Kim Beazley years ago (but Beazley was a great Ambassador to the US)) is an uninspiring Labor leader. "Nice" isn't enough, indeed. Labor's election strategy is more the hope the overall-popular-Liberals will make major mistakes (and/or fall out with the Nationals) by 2022, than Labor winning on charismatic, better policy, merit.
3/ The SFFP are more than disillusioned "National Party voters". Australian politics for decades has been balance-of-power determined by minor parties like the Australian Greens and once the now invisible Australian Democrats. Now the growing SFFP has preference power over the 3 main parties (the Liberals, Nationals and Labor).
The politically unstable National Party now represents big agri-businesses including large Darling River water stealers, billionaire Arab horse stud owners and even massive Chinese owned farms. Under the table political donations, from powerful monied interests, are a fact of life for the 3 main parties.
The SFFP are more than just small-medium farmers and small town voters, but many center-right people dissatisfied with All of the 3 main parties. The SFFP recognise their votes and preferences would be wasted if they delivered them to a main party that already had the highest number of First Preference votes. A well directed preference strategy, as practiced by SFFP, is inching towards holding the balance of power in future years.
4/ "Rural people" love politics, because by backing swing parties like the SFFP, it can give rural people disproportionate political power compared to the majority of people in the cities.
The rural/urban vote weightage matter has been an Australian political hallmark long before I studied politics in high school in Melbourne the '80s, so there's nothing unusual here, and a rural-focused 'bread and butter' political party will always attract voters as opposed to the two big parties.
ReplyDeleteAnd in other news, interesting piece on Defense-update.com regarding an IAI/ST Engineering joint venture to develop the mysterious Gabriel 5, the first time such a relationship has been published openly. Singapore employs a number of Israeli systems to enhance the quantitive edge to its defense forces, and its interesting to read too much into this, for now.
https://defense-update.com/20200716_proteus-jv.html
Hi Shawn C
ReplyDelete"nothing unusual" except the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers Party is non-aligned meaning it could direct its preferences to the Liberals OR Labor in 2022. If the Lib and Lab First Preference votes are close the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers Party preferences may effectively determine who governs. This is different from the aligned Greens always backing Labor.
Thanks for https://defense-update.com/20200716_proteus-jv.html
"5th generation" usually implies "more stealthy than current" anti-ship missiles. I wonder whether some former US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-158C_LRASM engineers (highly likely Jewish) have retired, immigrated to Israel, and will build an Israeli LRASM for the benefit of Israel and Singapore?
And/Or
Former European Jews from Germany or France etc may have immigrated with the tech in their heads for Israel's independent ASM and defense export benefit.
Cheers
Pete