COVID-19 to Overwhelm Australian ICU Beds: Unless...

1. Without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the number of Australian Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of all ages.

ICU wards are always heavily used/catered for - for all causes eg. mother's birth complications, infant illnesses, heart cases of 50 year old men, post cancer surgery, increased normal flu cases (right now) in the Southern Hemisphere Winter and accidents.

Unlike severe flu viruses and earlier covid viruses COVID-19 doesn't make most spreaders really ill. Without isolation-quarantine measures COVID-19 spreads quickly in a comparatively undetectable way.

2.   Source: the Medical Journal of Australia "Surge capacity of Australian intensive careunits associated with COVID-19 admissions" March 30, 2020 at 

This is the simple but deadly numbers game:

- There are 191 ICUs in Australia with available ICU beds = 2,378

Maximal estimate surge of ICU beds (an 191% increase) = 4,258

This surge would require:

- a 325% increase in senior doctors = 4,092

and

- a 365% increase in ICU nurses = 42,720

3. Source: Australian Government "IMPACT OF COVID-19: Theoretical modelling of how the
     health system can respond" at 

(i) modelling of an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak requires ICU beds = 35,000

(which would greatly exceed Australia’s expanded/surge capacity of less than 7,000 beds)

(ii) With cases isolation and quarantine, demand is reduced to ICU beds = 17,000

(still well above expanded/surge ICU bed capacity).

(iii) With isolation, quarantine and social distancing daily ICU demand is a containable number of less than 5,000 people.

CONCLUSION

So without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the number of Australian ICU beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of all ages.

Pete