The French Naval Group, Australian Future Submarine Program, may collapse, due to higher French priorities. There is also France's batch building system of delaying a whole submarine class for years. This is in contrast to Japan's more efficient ("continuous") build system of launching a submarine each year.
The following is an indication of what benefits could flow if Australia made the safest choice for Australia’s new submarine program. That is choosing a Japanese designed submarine with some features of the 29SS research program (see SORYU TABLE below). Japanese submarines, benefitting from the 29SS research program, will be actually commissioned into the Japanese Navy around 2022-23.
Japan continuously accepts the risk of new improvements to its all diesel-electric submarine fleet. Japan would test diesel-electric technologies, including its (on Japanese Navy subs) LIBs before designing submarines for Australia. Something France, with its all nuclear propelled submarine fleet, cannot do.
Anonymous states that the figures discussed below are based on the precise cost calculation formulae used by the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD). Hence Anonymous believes this is the most reliable cost calculation by a third party. On February 24, 2020 Anonymous commented:
The following is an indication of what benefits could flow if Australia made the safest choice for Australia’s new submarine program. That is choosing a Japanese designed submarine with some features of the 29SS research program (see SORYU TABLE below). Japanese submarines, benefitting from the 29SS research program, will be actually commissioned into the Japanese Navy around 2022-23.
Japan continuously accepts the risk of new improvements to its all diesel-electric submarine fleet. Japan would test diesel-electric technologies, including its (on Japanese Navy subs) LIBs before designing submarines for Australia. Something France, with its all nuclear propelled submarine fleet, cannot do.
Anonymous states that the figures discussed below are based on the precise cost calculation formulae used by the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD). Hence Anonymous believes this is the most reliable cost calculation by a third party. On February 24, 2020 Anonymous commented:
The AUS 29SS would have four
diesels, [Pete Comment also Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs)] and a range of 12,000nm. Meanwhile 29SS for the Japanese Navy submarine
(JN 29SS) has just 2 Kawasaki
diesels.
[Pete Comment: the French and German competition are far less advanced in submarine LIBs than Japan. Unlike Japan they have no submarines reliant on LIBs. So choosing LIBs in a French or German designed submarine would result in further delays, increased costs (with Australia carrying French and German LIB ACTUALLY ON SUBMARINE development costs) hence increased risks for Australia's future submarine program.
The degree of the Japanese lead in LIBs for submarine was demonstrated on March 5, 2020 when the world's first operational submarine with LIBs, Japanese Submarine JS Oryu (SS-511, 27SS), was commissioned and see Janes]
[Pete Comment: the French and German competition are far less advanced in submarine LIBs than Japan. Unlike Japan they have no submarines reliant on LIBs. So choosing LIBs in a French or German designed submarine would result in further delays, increased costs (with Australia carrying French and German LIB ACTUALLY ON SUBMARINE development costs) hence increased risks for Australia's future submarine program.
The degree of the Japanese lead in LIBs for submarine was demonstrated on March 5, 2020 when the world's first operational submarine with LIBs, Japanese Submarine JS Oryu (SS-511, 27SS), was commissioned and see Janes]
AUS 29SS would utilise a similar structure of single and double hulls as the Soryu submarine housing motor, diesel, torpedo and other
sections. Extra diesel fuel in enlarged tanks between the inner and outer hulls
would meet the longer range/endurance needs of AUS 29SS.
Anonymous indicates the increase in costs of AUS 29SS compared to JN 29SS’s may mainly be attributed to:
(a) US$0.02 Billion (B) for a hull plug housing larger fuel tanks for the extra
2 diesels in a lengthened AUS 29SS (94m) compared to JN 29SS’ 84m length. [Pete Comment: AUS 29SS would retain the Soryu's warload of 20 to 30 heavyweight torpedoes/missiles/UUV shots, or 40 to 60 mines.]
(b) US$0.027B for the two extra
diesels themselves
(c) US$0.13B the cost of installing
a US combat system instead of a different (though similar) Japanese combat system [coordinated with Lockheed Martin, Australia's combat system integrator] and
(d) US$0.11B profit for MHI.
So the total cost increase of
AUS 29SS compared to JN 29SS would be (a)+(b)+(c)+(d)= 0.02+0.027+0.13+0.11=US$0.29B.
Cost of JN 29SS is US$0.67B.
So the cost of AUS 29SS is US$0.96B
(=0.67B+0.29B) meaning Japan can export AUS 29SS (rounded up) for US$1B.
So for Australia’s 8 future submarines (assuming the Australian
Government will only decide on 8 rather than 12 submarines):
- 2 x export AUS 29SS’s [assembled in Australia] (at US$1B/submarine)
and
- 6 x AUS post-29SS submarines
(assuming US$1.3B/submarine)
then purchasing and maintenance
costs are US$10B + US$10B = total cost of US$20B.
This represents a large cost
saving for Australia, freeing up money for other defence or non-defence items.
SORYU TABLE. as at March
5, 2020
SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
|
Build No
Name
|
Pennant
No.
|
MoF approved amount ¥
Billions FY
|
LABs, LIBs, AIP
|
Laid Down
|
Laun
-ched
|
Commi
ssioned
|
Built
By
|
5SS Oyashio
|
8105 Oyashio
(mythical
|
SS-590/ TS3608
|
¥52.2B FY1993
|
LABs only
|
Jan 1994
|
Oct 1996
|
Mar 1998
|
KHI
|
6SS-15SS
Oyashios
10 subs
SMC-7?
|
8106
-8115
various
|
SS-591-600
|
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
|
LABs only
|
15SS Feb
2004
|
15SS
Nov
2006
|
15SS
Mar 2008
|
MHI
&
KHI
|
16SS
Dragon
class Mk I
|
8116
|
SS-501
|
¥60B FY2004 all Soryus with
Kawasaki
SMC-8 motor
|
LABs + AIP
|
Mar 2005
|
Dec 2007
|
Mar
2009
|
MHI
|
17SS
|
8117
Unryū
|
SS-502
|
¥58.7B FY2005
|
LABs + AIP
|
Mar 2006
|
Oct 2008
|
Mar
2010
|
KHI
|
18SS
|
8118
Hakuryū
|
SS-503
|
¥56.2 FY2006
|
LABs + AIP
|
Feb 2007
|
Oct 2009
|
Mar
2011
|
MHI
|
19SS
|
8119
Kenryū
|
SS-504
|
¥53B FY2007
|
LABs + AIP
|
Mar 2008
|
Nov 2010
|
Mar
2012
|
KHI
|
20SS
|
8120
Zuiryū
|
SS-505
|
¥51B FY2008
|
LABs + AIP
|
Mar 2009
|
Oct 2011
|
Mar
2013
|
MHI
|
21SS Concept
|
No 21SS built
But was a concept research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched is 27SS |
research
in
2010 |
research
|
research
| ||||
22SS
|
8121
Kokuryū
|
SS-506
|
¥52.8B FY2010
|
LABs + AIP
|
Jan 2011
|
Oct 2013
|
Mar
2015
|
KHI
|
23SS
|
8122
Jinryu
|
SS-507
|
¥54.6B FY2011
|
LABs + AIP
|
Feb 2012
|
Oct 2014
|
7 Mar 2016
|
MHI
|
24SS
|
8123
Sekiryū
|
SS-508
|
¥54.7B FY2012
|
LABs + AIP
|
KHI
| |||
25SS
|
8124
|
SS-509
|
¥53.1B FY2013
|
LABs + AIP
|
22 Oct 2013
|
12 Oct 2016
|
MHI
| |
26SS
|
8125
|
SS-510
|
LABs + AIP
|
2014
|
6 Nov 2017
|
KHI
| ||
27SS SoryuMk II
due to 1st
with LIBs
|
8126
|
SS-511
|
LIBs only
(NCA type)
|
2015
|
4 Oct
2018
|
MHI
| ||
28SS Soryu
Mk II
|
8127
|
SS-512
|
¥63.6B FY2016
"2,900t" surfaced |
LIBs only
|
Jan 2017
|
Mar 2021?
|
KHI
| |
29SS may be the 1st of a New class
|
¥76B FY2017 New features research may include: a further blended fin for noise reduction-better water flow, new propulsor, new diesels, new snorkel system. G-RX6 torpedoes replacing the Type 89s?
|
LIBs only
|
2017
pro-gram began |
MHI
assisted
by
KHI
& JMoD
| ||||
30SS New Class?
|
8028?
|
SS-513
|
¥71.5B FY2018
using some 29SS features |
LIBs only
|
2018?
|
2020?
|
2022?
|
MHI?
|
31SS New Class ?
|
8029?
|
SS-514
|
¥B?FY2019
using some 29SS features |
LIBs only
|
2019?
|
2021?
|
2023?
|
KHI?
|
32SS New Class ?
|
8030?
|
SS-515
|
¥B?Y2020
using some 29SS features. AUS 29SS would cost estimated US$1 Billion |
LIBs only
|
2020?
|
2022?
|
2024?
|
MHI?
|
33SS New Class ?
|
8031?
|
SS-516
|
¥B? FY2021
|
LIBs only
|
2021?
|
2023?
|
2025?
|
KHI?
|
34SS New Class ?
|
8032?
|
SS-517
|
¥B? FY2022
|
LIBs only
|
2022?
|
2024?
|
2026?
|
MHI?
|
35SS New Class ?
|
8033?
|
SS-518
|
¥B? FY2023
|
LIBs only
|
2023?
|
2025?
|
2027?
|
KHI?
|
36SS New Class ?
|
8034?
|
SS-519
|
¥B? FY2024
|
LIBs only
|
2024?
|
2026?
|
2028?
|
MHI?
|
37SS New Class ?
|
8035?
|
SS-520
|
¥B? FY2025
|
LIBs only
|
2025?
|
2027?
|
2029?
|
KHI?
|
38SS New Class ?
|
8036?
|
SS-521
|
¥B? FY2026
|
LIBs only
|
2026?
|
2028?
|
2030?
|
MHI?
|
Key to Table: Table information exclusively provided to Submarine Matters. LABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = Lithium-ion Batteries. ¥***B = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries.
---
Hi Pete.
ReplyDeleteThe ATLA has started development of a “High efficiency power storage & supply system for submarine” from FY2020.
In this project, high-efficiency power conversion system (main motor inverters), high-capacity batteries, and high-density mounting technology for batteries will be developed by FY2024.[1]
The 1st submarine applied this technology will be build for the JMSDF and may be commissioned in FY2031 or later.
(It could be the name ship of "post-29SS class".)
By the way, if "AUS 29SS" has four 12V25/31S diesels, its total electric output will be more than 9.6MW (4 x 2.4MW).[2]
The indiscretion ratio of the "AUS 29SS" patrolling at an average speed of 4kt is estimated at 2-3%.
[1]https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/results/30/pdf/jizen_08_honbun.pdf
[2]http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/Power_Systems_Of_Successive_JMSDF_Submarines.png (My blog)
Regards
wispywood2344
The degree of the Japanese lead in LIBs for submarine was demonstrated on March 5, 2020 when the world's first operational submarine with LIBs, Japanese Submarine JS Oryu (SS-511, 27SS), was COMMISSIONED.
ReplyDeleteSee the announcement at:
Janes https://www.janes.com/article/94710/japan-commissions-first-soryu-class-submarine-equipped-with-lithium-ion-batteries
and
NavalNews https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/03/jmsdf-commissioned-its-1st-li-ion-battery-submarine-ss-511-js-oryu-%E3%81%8A%E3%81%86%E3%82%8A%E3%82%85%E3%81%86/
Pete
Hi wispywood2344 [your March 5, 2020 at 9:37 PM]
ReplyDelete1. It will take me a few days to understand the information about ATLA in the PDF in Japanese at https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/results/30/pdf/jizen_08_honbun.pdf
2. The highly detailed information on Japanese submarine Main Propulsion Motors and [Diesel Generator Sets] "Gensets" from 1960 to 2022 at your TABLE on your blog at http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/Power_Systems_Of_Successive_JMSDF_Submarines.png
Is Very Interesting.
While I can refer to your complex TABLE I would be grateful if I could also use it in a much more simplified Table on Submarine Matters (say about 9 columns across and a row for each submarine class).
What do you think?
Regards
Pete
It's amazing. Building a decent SSN is a true test of country's industrial base. To such an extent that only handful of countries can do it. It now seems procuring SSK's is going the same way. Submarines have always been complex. You could reason that technology should make building a boat that deliberate sinks easier, but it seems the opposite is true. Good thing God doesn't change the formula for water often..........
ReplyDeleteIn 2022-2030th, 3000ton-class submarines (29SS,30SS,31SS,etc) will be commisioned. Difference in the shape of 3000ton-class and Soryu is very small.
ReplyDeleteIn 2030th, Post-3000ton-class submarine which is called as Post-29SS will be commiosioned. Simulation and prototype modeling of submarine shape are under conducting.
Hi Pete.
ReplyDeleteOK, you can post the simplified version on Submarine Matters.
Note that simple comparison between values is strictly not reasonable, due to differences in operating conditions.
Regards
wispywood2344
Hi steve [at March 6, 2020 at 10:51 PM]
ReplyDeleteYes Australia doesn't have the GDP to class itself in that "handful of countries" that can afford to build SSNs.
It is indeed counter-intuitive that, ton-for-ton, it is more difficult/expensive to build a vessel that can sink and rise again (a submarine) than a surface vessel that floats all the time.
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at March 7, 2020 at 12:35 PM]
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment.
I will use it in an article soon.
Regards
Pete
Hi wispywood2344 [at March 7, 2020 at 1:55 PM]
ReplyDeleteThanks. I will do a simplified Japanese Submarine Propulsion Table later this month. Noting a "simple comparison between values is strictly not reasonable, due to differences in operating conditions."
Regards
Pete
Misunderstading of 29SS is originated from the article by Sutton [1]."29" for 29SS means the era of former Japanese Emperor (Heisei29=AD2017), but Sutton misunderstood it was AD2029 providing confusion.
ReplyDelete[1]COVERT SHORES, JMSDF_Future_Submarine, Sun 23, June, 2019, by H.I.Sutton
The Japanese submarine was problematic in several areas. The Japanese sailors already considered them ‘squishy’ & the average Australian is somewhat larger than the average Japanese. Some of their design technologies were considered behind that of Collins. Japan has not exported any military technology or equipment since before WW2. Why would you want to be the first on something as complicated & expensive as a build it in Australia submarine? While the Japanese government were keen, it was pretty obvious that the manufacturers weren’t. Yes, Japan may have better LIB’s than France at the moment, but considering the amount of ongoing research around the world & our build timeframe, who’s to know. We have over a hundred years of LAB experience with subs. Less than 2 years with LIB. One fire will be all it takes to change the picture.
ReplyDeleteHi Naval Group (Australia) Anonymous [at March 10, 2020 at 9:52 PM]
ReplyDeleteSo I suppose your SAFT LIB supplier could take 5 to 10 years to Actually develop Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Australia's Attack class submarine. https://naval-group.com.au/2018/10/24/naval-group-presents-librt-its-new-generation-of-lithium-ion-batteries-system-for-submarines/
If Naval Group were to offer LIBs for Australia's Attack class then Naval Group (Australia's) "cutting steel" date could be delayed
somewhere between 2025 and 2030...
Cheers
Pete
Thanks Anonymous [March 10, 2020 at 1:29 PM]
ReplyDeleteFor clearing up the US analysts misunderstanding.
So is 29SS a multi-year Research Project (like 21SS in 2010 - see TABLE above) with No Submarine designated 29SS to be launched?
or
Is 29SS a Submarine that will actually be launched (around November 2020)?
Regards
Pete
Convensionally, various tests were rotationally conducted in Japanese submarines. Now, this procedure is changed to carry out effective operation ofsubmarine and tests. Originally, 29SS was intended to use in operation, but, its classfication was chaged to test purpose and tests will not be conducted in other ships such as 30SS.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments on Japanese submarine issues, particularly the 29SS Research Program.
ReplyDeleteSee my latest article on Japanese submarines at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/03/japans-29ss-submarine-research-program.html of March 13, 2020.
Regards
Pete