March 5, 2020

Less cost & risk if Australia Chose Japanese Designed Submarine with LIBs

The French Naval Group, Australian Future Submarine Program, may collapse, due to higher French priorities. There is also France's batch building system of delaying a whole submarine class for years. This is in contrast to Japan's more efficient ("continuous") build system of launching a submarine each year.

The following is an indication of what benefits could flow if Australia made the safest choice for Australia’s new submarine program. That is choosing a Japanese designed submarine with some features of the 29SS research program (see SORYU TABLE below). Japanese submarines, benefitting from the 29SS research program, will be actually commissioned into the Japanese Navy around 2022-23.

Japan continuously accepts the risk of new improvements to its all diesel-electric submarine fleet. Japan would test diesel-electric technologies, including its (on Japanese Navy subs) LIBs before designing submarines for Australia. Something France, with its all nuclear propelled submarine fleet, cannot do.  

Anonymous states that the figures discussed below are based on the precise cost calculation formulae used by the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD). Hence Anonymous believes this is the most reliable cost calculation by a third party. On February 24, 2020 Anonymous commented:

The AUS 29SS would have four diesels, [Pete Comment also Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs)] and a range of 12,000nm. Meanwhile 29SS for the Japanese Navy submarine (JN 29SS) has just 2  Kawasaki diesels.

[Pete Comment: the French and German competition are far less advanced in submarine LIBs than Japan. Unlike Japan they have no submarines reliant on LIBs. So choosing LIBs in a French or German designed submarine would result in further delays, increased costs (with Australia carrying French and German LIB ACTUALLY ON SUBMARINE development costs) hence increased risks for Australia's future submarine program.

The degree of the Japanese lead in LIBs for submarine was demonstrated on March 5, 2020 when the world's first operational submarine with LIBs, Japanese Submarine JS Oryu (SS-511, 27SS), was commissioned and see Janes

AUS 29SS would utilise a similar structure of single and double hulls as the Soryu submarine housing motor, diesel, torpedo and other sections. Extra diesel fuel in enlarged tanks between the inner and outer hulls would meet the longer range/endurance needs of AUS 29SS.

Anonymous indicates the increase in costs of AUS 29SS compared to JN 29SS’s may mainly be attributed to:

(a) US$0.02 Billion (B) for a hull plug housing larger fuel tanks for the extra 2 diesels in a lengthened AUS 29SS (94m) compared to JN 29SS’ 84m length. [Pete Comment: AUS 29SS would retain the Soryu's warload of 20 to 30 heavyweight torpedoes/missiles/UUV shots, or 40 to 60 mines.]

(b) US$0.027B for the two extra diesels themselves

(c) US$0.13B the cost of installing a US combat system instead of a different (though similar) Japanese combat system [coordinated with Lockheed Martin, Australia's combat system integrator] and

(d) US$0.11B profit for MHI.  

So the total cost increase of AUS 29SS compared to JN 29SS would be (a)+(b)+(c)+(d)= 0.02+0.027+0.13+0.11=US$0.29B.

Cost of JN 29SS is US$0.67B.

So the cost of AUS 29SS is US$0.96B (=0.67B+0.29B) meaning Japan can export AUS 29SS  (rounded up) for US$1B.

So for Australia’s 8 future submarines (assuming the Australian Government will only decide on 8 rather than 12 submarines):

- 2 x export AUS 29SS’s [assembled in Australia] (at US$1B/submarine)
and
- 6 x AUS post-29SS submarines (assuming US$1.3B/submarine)

then purchasing and maintenance costs are US$10B + US$10B = total cost of US$20B.

This represents a large cost saving for Australia, freeing up money for other defence or non-defence items.

SORYU TABLE. as at March 5, 2020 

SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥
Billions FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi
ssioned
Built
By
5SS Oyashio
8105 Oyashio
(mythical
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B FY1993
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios 
10 subs
SMC-7?
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS
Dragon
class  Mk I
8116
SS-501
¥60B FY2004 all Soryus with
Kawasaki 
12V25/25SB diesels, see and
SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
21SS Concept
No 21SS built
But was a concept research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched is 27SS
research
in 
2010   
research
research
22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct   2016
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
last SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
2014
6 Nov 2017
KHI
27SS SoryuMk II 
due to 1st
with LIBs
8126
Oryū

11th
Soryu
SS-511
¥64.4B FY2015
12V25/25SB dieselSMC-8B motor Sébastien
Roblin paper US$536mil?
LIBs only
(NCA type)
2015
4 Oct
2018
2020
& see
Janes
MHI
28SS Soryu
Mk II

8127
Toryu
12th &
final
Soryu
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
"2,900t" surfaced
LIBs only
Jan 2017
Mar 2021?
KHI
(JN) 29SS


29SS may be the 1st of a New class
¥76B FY2017 New features research may include: a further blended fin for noise reduction-better water flow, new propulsor, new diesels, new snorkel system. G-RX6 torpedoes replacing the Type 89s?
LIBs only
2017
pro-gram
began




MHI
assisted
by
KHI
JMoD
30SS New Class?
8028?
SS-513
¥71.5B FY2018
using some 29SS features

LIBs only
2018?
2020?
2022?
MHI?
31SS New Class ?
8029?
SS-514
¥B?FY2019
 using some 29SS features
LIBs only
2019?
2021?
2023?
KHI?
32SS New Class ?
8030?
SS-515
¥B?Y2020
using some 29SS features. AUS 29SS would cost estimated US$1 Billion

LIBs only
2020?
2022?
2024?
MHI?
33SS New Class ?
8031?
SS-516
¥B? FY2021

LIBs only
2021?
2023?
2025?
KHI?
34SS New Class ?
8032?
SS-517
¥B? FY2022

LIBs only
2022?
2024?
2026?
MHI?
35SS New Class ?
8033?
SS-518
¥B? FY2023

LIBs only
2023?
2025?
2027?
KHI?
36SS New Class ?
8034?
SS-519
¥B? FY2024

LIBs only
2024?
2026?
2028?
MHI?
37SS New Class ?
8035?
SS-520
¥B? FY2025

LIBs only
2025?
2027?
2029?
KHI?
38SS New Class ?
8036?
SS-521
¥B? FY2026

LIBs only
2026?
2028?
2030?
MHI?
Key to Table: Table information exclusively provided to Submarine MattersLABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIB= Lithium-ion Batteries. ¥***B = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 
---

Anonymous and Pete

15 comments:

  1. Hi Pete.

    The ATLA has started development of a “High efficiency power storage & supply system for submarine” from FY2020.
    In this project, high-efficiency power conversion system (main motor inverters), high-capacity batteries, and high-density mounting technology for batteries will be developed by FY2024.[1]
    The 1st submarine applied this technology will be build for the JMSDF and may be commissioned in FY2031 or later.
    (It could be the name ship of "post-29SS class".)

    By the way, if "AUS 29SS" has four 12V25/31S diesels, its total electric output will be more than 9.6MW (4 x 2.4MW).[2]
    The indiscretion ratio of the "AUS 29SS" patrolling at an average speed of 4kt is estimated at 2-3%.

    [1]https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/results/30/pdf/jizen_08_honbun.pdf
    [2]http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/Power_Systems_Of_Successive_JMSDF_Submarines.png (My blog)

    Regards

    wispywood2344

    ReplyDelete
  2. The degree of the Japanese lead in LIBs for submarine was demonstrated on March 5, 2020 when the world's first operational submarine with LIBs, Japanese Submarine JS Oryu (SS-511, 27SS), was COMMISSIONED.

    See the announcement at:

    Janes https://www.janes.com/article/94710/japan-commissions-first-soryu-class-submarine-equipped-with-lithium-ion-batteries

    and

    NavalNews https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/03/jmsdf-commissioned-its-1st-li-ion-battery-submarine-ss-511-js-oryu-%E3%81%8A%E3%81%86%E3%82%8A%E3%82%85%E3%81%86/

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi wispywood2344 [your March 5, 2020 at 9:37 PM]

    1. It will take me a few days to understand the information about ATLA in the PDF in Japanese at https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/results/30/pdf/jizen_08_honbun.pdf

    2. The highly detailed information on Japanese submarine Main Propulsion Motors and [Diesel Generator Sets] "Gensets" from 1960 to 2022 at your TABLE on your blog at http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/Power_Systems_Of_Successive_JMSDF_Submarines.png

    Is Very Interesting.

    While I can refer to your complex TABLE I would be grateful if I could also use it in a much more simplified Table on Submarine Matters (say about 9 columns across and a row for each submarine class).

    What do you think?

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  4. It's amazing. Building a decent SSN is a true test of country's industrial base. To such an extent that only handful of countries can do it. It now seems procuring SSK's is going the same way. Submarines have always been complex. You could reason that technology should make building a boat that deliberate sinks easier, but it seems the opposite is true. Good thing God doesn't change the formula for water often..........

    ReplyDelete
  5. In 2022-2030th, 3000ton-class submarines (29SS,30SS,31SS,etc) will be commisioned. Difference in the shape of 3000ton-class and Soryu is very small.
    In 2030th, Post-3000ton-class submarine which is called as Post-29SS will be commiosioned. Simulation and prototype modeling of submarine shape are under conducting.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Pete.

    OK, you can post the simplified version on Submarine Matters.
    Note that simple comparison between values ​​is strictly not reasonable, due to differences in operating conditions.

    Regards

    wispywood2344

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi steve [at March 6, 2020 at 10:51 PM]

    Yes Australia doesn't have the GDP to class itself in that "handful of countries" that can afford to build SSNs.

    It is indeed counter-intuitive that, ton-for-ton, it is more difficult/expensive to build a vessel that can sink and rise again (a submarine) than a surface vessel that floats all the time.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Anonymous [at March 7, 2020 at 12:35 PM]

    Thanks for your comment.

    I will use it in an article soon.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi wispywood2344 [at March 7, 2020 at 1:55 PM]

    Thanks. I will do a simplified Japanese Submarine Propulsion Table later this month. Noting a "simple comparison between values ​​is strictly not reasonable, due to differences in operating conditions."

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  10. Misunderstading of 29SS is originated from the article by Sutton [1]."29" for 29SS means the era of former Japanese Emperor (Heisei29=AD2017), but Sutton misunderstood it was AD2029 providing confusion.
    [1]COVERT SHORES, JMSDF_Future_Submarine, Sun 23, June, 2019, by H.I.Sutton

    ReplyDelete
  11. The Japanese submarine was problematic in several areas. The Japanese sailors already considered them ‘squishy’ & the average Australian is somewhat larger than the average Japanese. Some of their design technologies were considered behind that of Collins. Japan has not exported any military technology or equipment since before WW2. Why would you want to be the first on something as complicated & expensive as a build it in Australia submarine? While the Japanese government were keen, it was pretty obvious that the manufacturers weren’t. Yes, Japan may have better LIB’s than France at the moment, but considering the amount of ongoing research around the world & our build timeframe, who’s to know. We have over a hundred years of LAB experience with subs. Less than 2 years with LIB. One fire will be all it takes to change the picture.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Naval Group (Australia) Anonymous [at March 10, 2020 at 9:52 PM]

    So I suppose your SAFT LIB supplier could take 5 to 10 years to Actually develop Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Australia's Attack class submarine. https://naval-group.com.au/2018/10/24/naval-group-presents-librt-its-new-generation-of-lithium-ion-batteries-system-for-submarines/

    If Naval Group were to offer LIBs for Australia's Attack class then Naval Group (Australia's) "cutting steel" date could be delayed

    somewhere between 2025 and 2030...

    Cheers

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  13. Thanks Anonymous [March 10, 2020 at 1:29 PM]

    For clearing up the US analysts misunderstanding.

    So is 29SS a multi-year Research Project (like 21SS in 2010 - see TABLE above) with No Submarine designated 29SS to be launched?

    or

    Is 29SS a Submarine that will actually be launched (around November 2020)?

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  14. Convensionally, various tests were rotationally conducted in Japanese submarines. Now, this procedure is changed to carry out effective operation ofsubmarine and tests. Originally, 29SS was intended to use in operation, but, its classfication was chaged to test purpose and tests will not be conducted in other ships such as 30SS.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thanks for the comments on Japanese submarine issues, particularly the 29SS Research Program.

    See my latest article on Japanese submarines at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/03/japans-29ss-submarine-research-program.html of March 13, 2020.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete

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