US New Low-Yield Nukes Also To Be Aimed at China

See "China" two-thirds the way down.

US Government funded RadioFreeEuropeRadioLiberty February 5, 2020 reports:

“U.S. Deploys New, Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead To Deter Russia”

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Navy announced it has put into operation a low-yield, nuclear ballistic missile aboard a submarine [called submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)] as it seeks to deter adversaries like Russia.

This supplemental capability strengthens deterrence and provides the United States a prompt, more survivable low-yield strategic weapon; supports our commitment to extended deterrence,” Under Secretary of Defense for Policy John Rood said in a statement on Feb. 4.

The administration of President Donald Trump first announced its intention to deploy the W76-2 low-yield weapon in February 2018 after a review concluded there was a perception of a gap in U.S. deterrence capabilities.

The Nuclear Posture Review concluded that Russia has a strategy known as "escalate to de-escalate," in which the Kremlin would use or threaten to use low-yield nuclear weapons in a limited conventional conflict in Europe to compel the United States and NATO to back down.

"Recent Russian statements on this evolving nuclear weapons doctrine appear to lower the threshold for Moscow's first-use of nuclear weapons," the 2018 review said.

Democrats in the House of Representatives criticized the deployment of the W76-2 as “dangerous” and said the Pentagon has refused to answer Congressional questions about the weapon.

“The deployment of this warhead does nothing to make Americans safer. Instead, this destabilizing deployment further increases the potential for miscalculation during a crisis,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (Democrat-Washington) said in a statement.

Russia would not be able to determine if a weapon launched from a nuclear submarine is low-yield or not, adversaries say.

[Some define the upper limit of "low-yield" as "50 kilotons"].

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [January 29, 2020 estimated] the W76-2 has an explosive yield of about five kilotons [equivalent to the explosive energy released by five thousand tonnes of TNT] compared with 90 kilotons for the W76-1. The atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of about 15 kilotons. 

The United States already has about 1,000 low-yield, nuclear weapons that can be delivered by fighter jets, FAS said. Advocates for the new submarine-based weapon say that the fighters might not be able to penetrate Russian air space.

FAS said that despite the focus on deploying the weapon to deter Russian aggression, the real target “is much more likely” to be North Korea or Iran.”

------------------------------------

FAS further commented, January 29, 2020:

“The first ballistic missile submarine scheduled to deploy with the new warhead was the USSTennessee (SSBN-734), which deployed from Kings Bay Submarine Base in Georgia [USA] during the final weeks of 2019 for a deterrent patrol in the Atlantic Ocean.... We estimate that one or two of the 20 missiles on the USS Tennessee and subsequent subs will be armed with the W76-2, either singly or carrying multiple warheads...The National Security Strategy and the NPR both describe a role for nuclear weapons against “non-nuclear strategic attacks, and large-scale conventional aggression.” [hence, so far not nuclear armed Iran becomes a possible target].

---------------------------------------------------

Pete Comment

As well as intending Russia, North Korea and Iran as targets the US also may have China in mind. China may see no US equivalent to its new (probably low-yield) DF-21D anti-ship ballitic missile and DF-26 intermediate range ballistic missile. China may hope the US would hesitate to use standard higher yield 90 kiloton SLBM warheads to retaliate against DF-21D and DF-26 missiles based 100s kms inland on the Chinese mainland. US low-yield SLBMs would provide a proportionate rather than escalating US response.

China may assume that low-yield "carrier killing" DF-21D ballistic missiles may only need 5 kilotons yield to destroy US Nimitz or Ford class carriers - at the same time detroying some escort vessels in the carrier group.

Another emerging Chinese low-yield candidate may be the DF-26 with sufficient range to be "Guam busting" . Perhaps one destroying the US Naval Base Guam which hosts nuclear Submarine Squadron 15 (with 4 US SSNs). Another DF-26 might destroy the nuclear bomber capable Andersen Air Force Base on Guam which hosts B-2s (temporarily), B-1Bs and B-52s more permanently.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Low-yield concepts overlap with the "limited nuclear strike" concept that the US explored in the 1970s but then was rejected by the Carter Administration. 

The Sydney Morning Herald, December 21, 2012 reported :

"THAT America could launch a limited nuclear strike against Russia was a fashionable belief in US strategic theory of the 1970s. Policymakers thought that if Cold War tensions boiled over, they could hit selected Soviet targets in a way that controlled further escalation and forced Moscow to back down."

"Among the first targets would be the other side's command and control centres - its eyes and ears. Once blinded, a superpower - consisting of real people responding with human instincts - would not distinguish a ''controlled'' strike from a full-scale attack and would retaliate with everything it had."

Pete Comment

But that Sydney Morning Herald was written before North Korea became a nuclear threat and Iran a potential nuclear threat. Also China had not developed (likely) low-yield DF-21D and DF-26 ballistic missiles. 

Pete