Some See Serious Stresses in US-South Korean Alliance

Following the September 10, 2019 article Anonymous, on September 14, 2019, provided further comments and links on what some see as serious tensions in the US-South Korean (SK) alliance:

US expert on Asian, Michael J. Green, has begun to doubt the continuation of the US-SK alliance. Green is not only fed up with the anti-American administration of SK President Moon Jae-in, but also concluded that SK was not originally an alliance partner. See “U.S.-China Relations in 2019: A Year in Review” by Michael J. Green, Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, pages 5-6, September 4, 2019, at https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Panel%20II%20Green_Written%20Testimony.pdf

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Separately the following is a Question and Answer interview of Japanese commentator on Korean affairs Takabumi Suzuoki in “South Korea originally subject state of China-Inherent weakness of USA-SK alliance spoken openly in USA” by T. Suzuoki, in [Japanese newspaper] DAILY SHINCHO, of September 13, 2019.

(Suzuoki) A notable change has occurred in US. Dr Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair of CSIS said continuation of the US-SK alliance was difficult.

(In source text) “Korea has a very different history and a very different geopolitical situation from Japan and the Chinese view Korea as a much more likely candidate for dealignment from the U.S.”

(Q) What does “Korea has a very different history and a very different geopolitical situation” mean?

(A) It means, “The successive dynasties of the Korean peninsula belonged to the dynasty of China.

Therefore, the US-SK alliance is extremely unstable.”

(In source text)“Korea was historically more associated with the Chinese tributary state system than Japan and Beijing has put significant coercive pressure on South Korea to dealign from the United States since Xi Jinping came to power.”

(Suzuoki) As SK is originally pro-China country, maintenance of the US-SK alliance is difficult whether SK government is anti-America or not. Whatever US makes effort, eventually the alliance will be withdrawn. This is already pointed out “Withdrawal of the US-SK alliance), but the fact that Asian experts in America began to point out inherent weakness of the US-SK alliance is important. “Left wing Moon Jae-in administration results in collapse of the US-SK alliance “ is dominative view in US, but, it is too optimistic idea. Asian experts in US used to think, “As SK is a democratic country, it will eventually select US not China.” But, now, Asian experts conclude, ”SK will select China.”

(Q) Why did they conclude, “SK will select China.”

(A) Because SK is hesitating participation in “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Strategy”, China encirclement network. Also, SK withdraw GSOMIA.

(In source text) Seoul took over a year to participate in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, for example, and South Korea ambassadors in Southeast Asia often steer clear of the like-minded coordination meetings of U.S, Japanese, Australian and European embassies.

(A) China ordered SK, “Do not military cooperation by US, SK and Japan”, and Moon administration accepted this order. SK sucked up to China by withdrawal of GSOMIA.

(Q) Is there any other Asian experts except Dr. Green who Give up SK?

(A) Mr. Michael Armacost (ex-Ambassador to the Philippines and also to Japan, former Acting Secretary of State) doubts continuation of the US-SK alliance. He pointed out the anti-American sentiments by Korean and suggested the possibility of withdrawal of the US military. In SK, not only the left wing but also conservatives believe, “the US wants to place troops in the continent. So, whatever Korea says, US will not pull the its troops in Korea.” But, Professor Gi-Wook Shin of Stanford University pointed out, “We left the Philippines with which we allied for 100 years. I can't say it won't happen in SK.”

(Q) Are there conservatives in SK?

(A) That is problem. They chant pro-America, but, in their heart, have strong antipathy against US who dominates their destiny. In critical situation, their anti-America sentiment will explode. In May 2019, Goldon Chan published “Losing South Korea” where nationalism of SK results in withdrawal of the US-SK alliance. Ordinary American still believes, “SK is our side.” But, experts begin to face ex- subject state of China, deep anti-America sentiment and increasing nationalism which will change public opinion in US.

(Q) Is change in a view point of experts reflected in diplomacy of US?

(A) Of course. President Trump said, “SK probably doesn’t like us too much.” Deep anti-America sentiment of Korean is recognized by political leaders in US. Asian experts and security experts checked withdrawal trend of Trump administration, but, now, Asian experts begin to say, “The US-SK alliance is not maintained.” Resignation of John Robert Bolton will result in restart of dialogue between US and NK.

(Q) How Korean think mind change of US?

(A) Conservatives pointed out risk of national security caused by light wing, but, can not say to join FOIP. They scare China. Light wing must be very happy. Because, US may withdraw the US-SK alliance. On Sept/09/2019, Special Assistant to SK President, Moon Chung-in called demonstration by citizen in front of US embassy to change the US-SK relation. See “Special Advisor Moon Chung-in said,”The biggest obstacle for NK-SK relations is the UN Command”” [in SK language] Chosun Online, September 10, 2019 http://www.chosunonline.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/09/10/2019091080020.html

(Q) How can Special Assistant to the SK President call anti-American demonstration?

(A) Currently US is fed up with SK. Special Assistant is going to shake the US-SK relation in this opportunity. If citizen surrounds the US embassy, anti-Korea sentiment will definitely increase in USA. Conservatives severely criticize Cho Kuk's nomination as SK's next justice minister and try the overthrow of a government. Full collision between Left wing and Conservatives started in SK. Collapse of the US-SK alliance will be brought forward. ENDS