India's old, symbolic, submarine, INS Sindhuvir, to Myanmar

India is discussing with Myanmar the part symbolic transfer, perhaps in late 2019, of one of India’s Russian-made Kilo-class SSKs to Myanmar's Navy. To achieve a late 2019 transfer, India will need to refit (including derust) the submarine very quickly indeed at India’s usually slow east coast Vishakhapatnam/Vizag naval shipyard.

This news comes from a July 30 2019 report in India’s Economic Times. Russia, which will need to supply many essential spare parts, is in agreement with the transfer.

The submarine in question has been identified as INS Sindhuvir. Sindhuvir, launched in Russia in 1987, is 32 years old, that is, already past its 30 year use-by-date. Age means Sindhuvir will be a constant and expensive maintenance headache for Myanmar and India. A large team of Indian crewman and shore based maintainers will be needed in Myanmar for several years to transfer their skills to the Myanmar Navy. Also any major "deep" maintenance of Sindhuvir will still need to take place at an Indian naval shipyard. 

The Myanmar Navy has no experience in operating and maintaining submarines. Myanmar’s possession of just one submarine does not mean Myanmar will have an operational submarine capability. Myanmar would need 2 submarines and ideally 3 to have 1 always available for operations. Sindhuvir's age and training role mean Myanmar will need to soon order 2 or 3 new or young second hand subs to have a viable and ongoing submarine arm.

Myanmar’s most plausible future strategic opponents are Bangladesh (with 2 old ex Chinese Ming class submarines) and Thailand (which will eventually receive 3 new-build modified Yuan class submarines from China). Most of Myanmar’s tensions with Bangladesh and Thailand are now mainly over cross border illegal immigrant/refugee flows.

The other major naval powers in the region (the US, India and China) are simply too large for Myanmar to strategically face and in any case they do not have hostile relations with Myanmar.

Sindhuvir’s age and Myanmar’s lack of experience mean the Sindhuvir will primarily be a training, regime prestige vessel and symbol of good relations with India. For a first submarine Sindhuvir is very large at up to 3,100 tonnes submerged (see right sidebar). This is a large sub to operate in Myanmar's mostly very shallow (less than 200m deep) coastal waters (see the depth map below). 

Myanmar’s Navy is primarily a policing/coastguard one with 2 modern light frigates, an old frigate, 3 corvettes and a gaggle of patrol boats of various sizes and ages. 

That Myanmar is acquiring its first submarine from India/Russia instead of China (on Myanmar’s border) indicates Myanmar is balancing its relations with those 3 powers.

At top left, much of Myanmar's coastal region is very shallow (less than  200m) to operate a submarine as large as INS Sindhuvir.
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INS Sindhuvir is an early model Kilo (Project 877) class submarine (specifications above), with high maintenance needs already, due to its 1987 launch age of 32. 

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INS Sindhuvir 2 years ago (Photo courtesy The Hindu)

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Pete