Franz-Stefan Gady has written an excellent
article at the The Diplomat paysite. The article is an interview with Mauro Gilli, a senior researcher in military
technology and international security at the Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology. The article titled “Mauro Gilli: Selling the F-35 to Countries Operating the
S-400 Is a Bad Idea” is dated July 3, 2019. Subscribers can read the full article at
https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/mauro-gilli-selling-the-f-35-to-countries-operating-the-s-400-is-a-bad-idea/. Here is a short snippet:
[Franz-Stefan Gady askes] "How
[the Russian S-400 system issue is] related to the sale of the
F-35 aircraft to countries such as
Turkey or, perhaps less realistically, India?
[Mauro Gilli's
responds] "To use the previous analogy, by possessing
both the F-35 as well as the
S-400, Turkey or India could figure out how to change the color of the F-35 from light blue to black, and in part how to change the color of the background from light blue to white. To put it more precisely, stealth technology is aimed at reducing the observability to radars operating at specific angles and at specific frequencies. By modulating the frequencies and angles of operations of multiple S-400 systems, one could find the weak spots of the F-35 and, more important, its unique radar returns. By feeding such data into signal processing software, the chances of detection increases markedly – one country would be able to more accurately ignore false positives and more carefully avoid false negative[s]. In other words, if you know what you are looking for, you can more easily find it."
S-400, Turkey or India could figure out how to change the color of the F-35 from light blue to black, and in part how to change the color of the background from light blue to white. To put it more precisely, stealth technology is aimed at reducing the observability to radars operating at specific angles and at specific frequencies. By modulating the frequencies and angles of operations of multiple S-400 systems, one could find the weak spots of the F-35 and, more important, its unique radar returns. By feeding such data into signal processing software, the chances of detection increases markedly – one country would be able to more accurately ignore false positives and more carefully avoid false negative[s]. In other words, if you know what you are looking for, you can more easily find it."
SEE THE FULL DIPLOMAT ARTICLE
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On
July 17, 2019 Al-Monitor.com reported:
The
“Trump administration said today it would formally kick Turkey out of the F-35
program after Ankara took delivery of a [S-400] Russian air defense system that
could threaten the American fighter’s stealth capabilities.
In
a White House statement sent five days after Turkey began taking deliveries of
the Moscow-made S-400, [on July 12, 2019] press secretary Stephanie Grisham said the F-35 “cannot
coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to
learn about its advanced capabilities.”
Pentagon
officials had long said the Russian system, which is not compatible with NATO
counterparts, could train its powerful radar on any F-35 jet operated
by Turkey to uncover its stealth protections....”
the biggest advantage of having both systems would be that the second set of data from S-400 can be obtained by matching the times of take off and landing of the F-35s in close vicinity
ReplyDeleteThe take off will produce a tell tale signature that the S-400 can be taught to 'discern' and later whatever 'faint' signal the F-35 puts out can also be programmed in by Russian military technicians to make the S-400 even more effective to pick the F-35 under many scenarios
Not only that this can be extended to other radars across Russia where say near the Bering straits, Russian bases will have crucial additional set of data to now clearly identify the F-35 from the clutter... there in lies the US's justified objection.
Hi GhalibKabir on S-400s and F-35s
ReplyDeleteI suspect matching and cueing the S-400 sensors/database will ensure more shootdowns of F-35s. Something similar to how a Russian trained Serb SAM commander used an F-117's known takeoff time to calibrate the SAM's sensors-database to shoot it down - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown
Looks like the Russians, Chinese and Turks (India? acquiring and maybe Iran?) will perform the standard and very close examination of F-35 stealth at all angles to feed the S-400s, longer range S-500s and all other advanced radar databases.
As well as Russia's west of the Bering straits North Korea will be excellent site for Russians, Chinese and NKs to study South Korea, US and Japan's F-35s radar returns.
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Given South Korea is developing components of the S-400 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#South_Korea
AND South Korea is acquiring F-35As https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II#F-35A_2
South Korea will make an excellent and highly vulnerable target for Russian, Chinese and N Korean HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding S-400 performance against F-35s.
Regards
Pete
the S-200 was taught to identify lower frequencies and shot the F-117.
ReplyDeleteYour South Korea comments are spot on, Samsung and few other parts makers are involved in the S-400 components supply, I can easily conceive of a Russian technician using the appropriate 'back door' points to do some valuable SIGINT of Korean F-35s...
Hi GhalibKabir (your Aug 16, 2019)
ReplyDeleteYes the Russian trained Serb commander of the S-200 battery was (with likely GRU help) very shrewd in "teaching" the S-200 sensor/database to get a fire solution on that F-117A. Also knowing exactly when the F-117A regularly took off from its airbase helped.
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On South Korea making S-400 components AND receiving F-35As - I would say the Americans would be across that clash. The American's (in the spirit of calculated risk) may rate the int gain of how SK S-400 components (systems?) detect F-35s as worth the "info leak".
This is considering that Russian and Chinese S-400s once land distributed and interacting with radars on ships, satellites, UAVs and manned aircraft will likely generate fire solutions on F-35s anyway.
Cheers
Pete
I think, au contraire, considering the extensive access the Americans had to the S-300 PMU2 on Crete Island, they already know quite a bit because the S-400 is not radically different barring a longer range missile getting added...
ReplyDeleteyou are probably quite right on the Russian and Chinese getting to 'work' the F-35s tell tale signatures in due course of time...
will be interesting to see how the KM-SAM and L-SAM defense shield pans out for South Korea
Hi GhalibKabir (Aug 16)
ReplyDeleteThanks re US knowledge of the Cretean S-300 PMU2 system. However I think the US would consider knowledge of South Korea's latest S-400 software of high int value.
Yes massive all-type Russian and Chinese radar, infra-red and supercomputer resources will resolve the detect F-35 (at least F-35s working in isolation!) problem.
So Russia is sharing S-400 technology to help SK develop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KM-SAM and L-SAM (not meaning "long-range" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L-SAM ).
I suspect Russia is supplying its export grade S-400 technology for 3rd countries like SK, China, Turkey, India, etc. to help fund Russia's more advanced own-use S-400 and S-500 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-500_missile_system .
Cheers
Pete