April 27, 2019

Poland May Not Have Operating Submarines For 5 Years, 2024-2029

On September 27, 2018 I reported on Poland’s Orka future submarine program to buy 3 medium sized submarines. The new submarines need to replace Poland’s 2 operating Kobben class subs (ORP Sokół and ORP Bielik - on average 54 years old) and its 33 year old Kilo class sub (ORP Orzel). 

Poland’s DziennikZbrojny.pl military portal reported April 6, 2019 about the progress of the Orka program. I've translated the report from Polish and summarised it below.


In late March 2019 the Polish Ministry of National Defense floated an armaments plan. See the naval build plan (above) published on the DziennikZbrojny report. Under the draft plan the build of the first Orka submarine will only begin in mid 2023. This means that the first Orka might only be launched in 2026-2027.

It is reported that the Orka program has ceased to be a priority for the Defense Ministry. The Ministry had planned to choose the main foreign contractor in January 2018, but this deadline has passed with little explanation. Beginning the build in 2023 means delivery to the Navy in 2028-2029 at the earliest. The construction of a modern submarine requires a minimum of 5-6 years.


By 2028-2029 the Navy’s last two operating Kobben submarines [(ORP Sokół and ORP Bielik] will be more than 60 years old – too old to operate. Meanwile the Kilo sub, ORP Orzeł (291), will have been in service for 43 years and may also need retiring before 2029.

Pete Comment

So Poland may not have operating submarines for 5 years, 2024 - 2029.

Pete

5 comments:

  1. Nicky4/27/2019 10:52 AM

    This is why Poland desperately needs to have a NICE long chat with Germany, France and Sweden on SSK Submarines

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous5/02/2019 2:20 PM

    Pete,
    getting the subs in 2024 seems very ambitious if Poland does not order an off the shelf design.

    See Norway that aims to have the first sub in late 2026. And they seem to be much more proactive in their acquisition process.

    https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/04/30/german-norwegian-officials-huddle-over-joint-submarine-program/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous5/04/2019 1:58 PM

    Hi Pete,

    The Netherland will also delay its decision a bit Dutch keep Walrus submarine race going for a bit longer

    /Kjell

    ReplyDelete
  4. PKJ5/10/2019 7:49 AM

    Good points Pete. New Scorpene would seem to give us the best option and best fit within NATO. Also, I wonder if we will just lease a couple of used sub to tie us over.

    ReplyDelete
  5. PKJ5/11/2019 1:10 AM

    New Scorpene would seem to be the best fit for operating within NATO. For short-term, I wonder if we can lease an used submarine or two, like the Indians.

    ReplyDelete

You can comment :)