UPDATE: At 10.15am (April 10, 2019) Tokyo time - Japan's Air Force confirms the floating debris is from the F-35 fighter, with the pilot still missing. So it looks like a clear crash situation rather than a defection. The aircraft apparently crashed in waters that
reach a depth of around 1,500 metres, making recovery difficult. Recovery of the "black (really orange) boxes" is slightly easier due to "pings". However see COMMENTS below.
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Earlier, at 7.30am (April 10, 2019) Tokyo time:
The Japanese Air Force announced https://www.mod.go.jp/asdf/news/houdou/H31/310409_2030.pdf
[The following has been translated from Japanese by Pete]:
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Earlier, at 7.30am (April 10, 2019) Tokyo time:
The Japanese Air Force announced https://www.mod.go.jp/asdf/news/houdou/H31/310409_2030.pdf
[The following has been translated from Japanese by Pete]:
"On the disappearance of the radar track of Misawa base station F-35A
(First report) Today, April 9 (Tuesday), the radar track of F-35A belonging to Misawa
base disappeared. We are currently searching for it.
1 Date of occurrence: 19:27 April 9 (Tuesday)
2 Occurrence place: Aomori Prefecture Eastern Pacific Ocean (approximately 135 km east
of Misawa Air Base)
3 unit name: Third Air Corps 302th Squadron
4 models, number of machines, etc: F-35A x 1 machine (1 crew)
5 Situation of the pilot: Details are under review.
6 There is no information on damage at the moment.”
The Japanese Ministry of Defense [has suspended] flights of all remaining F-35As at the
Misawa Air Base for the time being, Iwaya added.
The Japanese F-35 fighter jet missing in the Pacific could
be a major security headache for the U.S. if Russia or China locate the
state-of-the-art fighter jet first, experts warn.
Japan's (and US joint) Misawa Air Base is on the northern tip of Japan's home island of Honshu (see Misawa in red on map below)
COMMENTS - Not Defection, However:
It is puzzling that no emergency beacons or other emergency automatic signals were set off. No mayday by pilot voice. Even the radar of satellites and radars of the 3 nearby F-35A's did not detect the crashed F-35A as it entered the water.
The crash (especially if caused by a systemic software or hardware fault) serves as a warning not just to Japan as an F-35A owner but a warning to all countries who owns or will own F-35As (ie. the US, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Israel etc). It is likely that all these F-35A (and even F-35B) owning countries (not only Japan) have quietly grounded their own aircraft for the time being.
It is puzzling that no emergency beacons or other emergency automatic signals were set off. No mayday by pilot voice. Even the radar of satellites and radars of the 3 nearby F-35A's did not detect the crashed F-35A as it entered the water.
The crash (especially if caused by a systemic software or hardware fault) serves as a warning not just to Japan as an F-35A owner but a warning to all countries who owns or will own F-35As (ie. the US, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Israel etc). It is likely that all these F-35A (and even F-35B) owning countries (not only Japan) have quietly grounded their own aircraft for the time being.
China and Russia may be in a rush against the US and Japan to send their salvage ships and special mission submarines to the crash site to pick up even small pieces of the key stealth feature Radar Absorbent Material (RAM) coating that covers the F-35 airframe.
Even though not a defection with aircraft (this time) Japan is close enough, flying distance-wise, to anti-Western powers (China, Russia and North Korea) to make future Japanese F-35 defections possible. Although the pilot/body has not yet been found. Defection is less likely to be triggered by communist ideology these days and more likely by loneliness, revenge and a $multi-million bounty to deliver an F-35.
As well as RAM coating the F-35's Pratt & Whitney F135 jet engine might be the most valuable item for China or Russia to reverse engineer and then incorporate into their own 5th generation fighter and bomber programs.
Even though not a defection with aircraft (this time) Japan is close enough, flying distance-wise, to anti-Western powers (China, Russia and North Korea) to make future Japanese F-35 defections possible. Although the pilot/body has not yet been found. Defection is less likely to be triggered by communist ideology these days and more likely by loneliness, revenge and a $multi-million bounty to deliver an F-35.
As well as RAM coating the F-35's Pratt & Whitney F135 jet engine might be the most valuable item for China or Russia to reverse engineer and then incorporate into their own 5th generation fighter and bomber programs.
Pete
At least this time, there were no Russian ships nearby to record the exact location of
ReplyDeletethe crash site:
"As the plane sank beneath the waves, a Soviet Navy cruiser that had been shadowing
the fleet sailed close to log the position. The ramifications were clear — on board
the F-14A Tomcat was America’s new and top secret AIM-54 Phoenix missile as well as
its revolutionary fire control radar system, the AN/AWG-9. Knowing the Soviet Union’s
deep sea recovery capabilities, it was apparent that it would be race to achieve a
recovery before the sensitive technologies fell into their hands."
See:
http://fly.historicwings.com/2012/09/tomcat-deep/
Hi Anonymous [I wonder if the F-35 pilot blacked out from an Oxygen fault!]
ReplyDeleteFortunately for Japan and the US Russia's main recovery vessels/subs are probably Russian Northern Fleet based, rather than Pacific Fleet based. This may give Japan and the US extra time to find the 'black boxes" and the pilots body in the cockpit (if he never ejected).
It still seems odd that there were so few automatic mayday or emergency signals triggered by the pilot.
Still no sign of the pilot at 5.18pm, April 11 Tokyo time.
I wonder if he had an oxygen problem (a fault seen earlier on F-22s) and he blacked out and hit the water.
Regards
Pete
According to:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-defence-f35-official/crashed-f-35-was-the-first-one-assembled-by-japans-mitsubishi-heavy-official-idUSKCN1RM0AL
The F-35 that crashed was the first one produced in Japan. I wonder if a production
defect had something to do with it?
"The F-35 that crashed was the first one produced in Japan. I wonder if a production
ReplyDeletedefect had something to do with it?"
You could be right Anonymous. I wonder if an aviation mechanic placed that "oxygen supply thingy" the wrong way round.
Pete
If it dived at high speed into the ocean, there may not be a lot of big debris left, especially with the high % of carbon fiber composites. The tails tended to shear of at impact and float. They will need to recover the CVR/FDR to have a view of what happened but I read they are 1500m deep so it will not be easy.
ReplyDeleteKQN
Hi KQN
ReplyDeleteYes big questions of why the jet crashed remain.
If it were a civilian airliner, eg. a new type of 737... then the weight of public opinion would demand worlwide groundings.
But the F-35 is a second best aircraft forced at great expense on Japan (which really wanted the F-22). The F-22's bugs over years of real-world use have been ironed out.
However many 1,000s of hours the F-35s have been test flown, this hasn't helped this Japanese pilot.
Japan is crying out for a new air-superiority aircraft - which is the F-22, not the F-35.
Regards
Pete
F22 option is long gone. Even the USAF can’t get anywhere with the idea of building more. To restart that particular production line would cost a mint. It’s not just LM, but Boeing was also involved in the build. They were/are also super expensive, both to buy & operate.
ReplyDeleteIt would probably be faster, cheaper & smarter to buy into the new UK design. At the moment, I believe it’s just a UK effort, but I gather Leonardo are pushing for Italy to get involved (with UK not the Franco-German effort). A formal Japanese offer to join the team would guarantee them supply & they do have military aviation expertise (ie they do have more than money to bring to the table).
Just a thought. Otherwise Typhoon is probably the best ‘available’ air superiority fighter. If you want cheap & cheerful, then SAAB & go for numbers.
Regards
Hi Anonymous [at 13/4/19 9:55 AM] on the LM made F-22 scarcity.
ReplyDeleteI'll respond more fully with an article around Wednesday 17 April (Europe time) after I've written a couple of articles on Indonesia's 3 extra future submarines initiative/surprise.
Regards
Pete
20% of Japanese population is over 70 years old so the number of able fighter pilots will most probably be dwindling as time marches on.
ReplyDeleteStill you do want to limit the number of aircraft types to maintain. That said, Typhoon and Gripen are just too late to contemplate. If Japan wants to increase the number of Gen 4-4.5 fighters, they may as well get more F15x and modernized F2 (IRST, AESA).
A combination of Gen 4.5 and 5 fighters may be desirable in any case given low radar observability will be to a large extent nullified by the advent of long range networked IRST sensors which will allow an accurate silent long range firing solution for AMRAAM and Meteor.
KQN