November 1, 2018

Rare Satellite View of 2 Indian Arihant class SSBNs at Vishakhapatnam Shipyard

India’s indigenous nuclear submarine program is variously know as the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) Program and the Arihant class. At the same time India is long term leasing a Russian Improved Akula class SSN, known as INS Chakra II.

Submarine Matters has been following Indian submarine (especially nuclear) developments since INS Arihant’s launch on July 26, 2009

Since then India’s developing nuclear submarine program has had mixed fortunes. In early 2014 INS Aridhaman, under construction, suffered a major mishap which killed a civilian worker from Larsen & Toubro and injured two other workers. 

Aridhaman, now called INS Arighat, was later launched on November 19, 2017 and is due to be commissioned in 2020-21. 

In February 2017 INS Arihant, also had a major accident during a test sunk at its moorings, it is believed due to a hatch left open.

Arighat will be succeeded in the dry dock by two slightly larger 8,000? ton SSBNs that have been designated S4 and S4*. India's three full sized 13,000+ ton "S5 class" SSBNs will probably be launched in the mid to late 2020s.

But now INS Arihant and Arighat may be developing smoothly. 


File photo of INS Arihant at its launch ceremony in 2009 (Courtesy Indian Ministry of Defence).
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ThePrint, October 19, 2018 reported, in part:

India has one nuclear submarine, the INS Arihant, launched in 2009, and is building five more at the Ship Building Centre (SBC) Visakhapatnam [aka "Vizag"] under the nuclear submarine programme that began in 1974. The second [of the Arihant class] was initially named Aridaman but it was changed to Arighat.

The Indian Navy also operates INS Chakra [II], an Akula-class nuclear-powered submarine taken on lease from Russia.

INS Arihant — armed with nuclear tipped B-05 [aka K-15 or Sagarika] missiles with a range of over 750 km — was quietly commissioned in August 2016, pushing India into a select club of five nations with such technology. But within months [Arihant] suffered an accidental breach and ingress of water, raising fears of reactor contamination. It was repaired and made operational in October 2017 after extensive tests showed that the damage was not as bad as initially feared.

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INS Arighat, launched in November 2017, is very similar to Arihant main difference is a slightly more powerful (presumably larger, maybe around 90 MW) reactor.  Maybe undergoing trials end of 2019 or early 2020.

S4 and S4* which will be larger than Arighat and Arihant (one of them could be named Aridhaman) are in an earlier stage of construction with probable launch and trials in the 2020s. Its possible 
S4 and S4* are being constructed at Ship Building Centre (SBC) Vadodara in Gujarat, western India.

Note that Vishakhapatnam is the city/port containing the main base of India's Eastern Naval Command. It is also the main base of India's nuclear submarine squadron.

SATELLITE VIEW

 A commercial grade (ie. not too detailed) Google 2018 satellite photo depicts some submarine actities at SBC Visakhapatnam - see this link
https://www.google.com.sg/maps/search/SBC+visakhapatnam/@17.7099413,83.26806,276m/data=!3m1!1e3 Alas! Google seems to block satellite-map images appearing on blogs.

Looking at the photo the submarine out in the open (midway, at base of image) (using the Google scale) is 
more than 100m long (ie. too long to be an SSK). 

Like an Arihant or Arighat, but unlike Chakra II:

-  the sub out in the open has mid-sail diving planes,

-  it does not have Chakra II's bulbous (housing a spooled long towed sonar array) upright cruciform

   stern plane.

Towards the left top corner, in the shed, is a ventilation and/or natural light opening revealing probably 
Arihant or Arighat. The fact that the shed is open indicates that India is not hiding its Arihant and Arighat.

19 comments:

  1. Unless I am mistaken, S4 and S4* are being constructed at SBC, Vadodara in Gujarat, western India. They are at an early stage in construction with the reactor due to be integrated in a couple of years (an uprated one around 100 MWt I think)

    S-2 Arihant and S-3 Arighat are based in SBC, Vishakhapatnam.

    https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/india-submarine-capabilities/

    btw in related news on the 2nd Akula SSN lease, apparently the Russians are asking more than double of what they charged for leasing the K152 Nerpa SSN in 2012. North of US$ 2.5 billion seems the latest quote. So while India agreed on S-400 and Krivak Frigates... the Improved Akula SSN was a bridge too far.

    Along with the problems with Barracuda SSN, this means valuable consulting by the Russians and Frenchies might not be available for a while further delaying India's SSN program which is actually still on paper with designs getting finalized...

    roughly, a 6000 tons SSN might probably need a 40% HEU 150 MWt reactor delivering 20-30,000 shp (assuming 15% at shaft level electrical conversion accounting for energy conversion losses) that is capable of quick 'sprints' in actual hunter-killer or attack ops. I think this is the dilemma facing Indian designers, doubling the reactor power and giving it quick ramp-up and down ability... the Russian HEU based model is probably the only thing that could work and if the costs are any indication... might involve an arm and leg ;)

    http://mragheb.com/NPRE%20402%20ME%20405%20Nuclear%20Power%20Engineering/Nuclear%20Marine%20Propulsion.pdf

    See page 8 in particular.
    This is a very good read.. covers salinity of water, impact of SSBN humps etc..

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi

    On "S4 and S4*" I've altered text accordingly.

    On "2nd Akula SSN" issue, I think the technology in Akulas and the rust building up on the laidup available Akulas (no new for Russian production) make these old Akulas a negative proposition. India developing its own SSNs, maybe with Russian inspired (know-how, show-how) reactors may be the go.

    OR if Russia actually develops cheaper Husky SSNs (around 2030) then export version for India, may be a plan.

    Buy/build a second tranche of Scorpenes may encourage greater French "non-reactor" :) assistance. But lack of modern-AIP in any of the Scorpenes is a high tradeoff.

    Thanks for http://mragheb.com/NPRE%20402%20ME%20405%20Nuclear%20Power%20Engineering/Nuclear%20Marine%20Propulsion.pdf interesting reading.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  3. I think one of the later Akulas from the 1990s might still be leased esp. if it is the Irbis which was the last Akula to be laid down.

    I am hoping it is not the Kashalot as it is over 32 years old vs the 24 year hull age of the Irbis... Personally the Samara, Kuzbass or the Gepard would have been better choices..

    Exporting HEU based Husky SSNs might not be possible due to NPT constraints though a lease is certainly possible. But it would be far better to get the indigenous SSNs under construction by then. Russian hardware/steadfast support comes at a very dear cost...

    The Frenchie help on the non nuke aspect ala SN-BR is I guess already happening... 6 more Scorpenes is certainly possible though I would hope a module for a AIP either FC2G or PEMFC is made, else the SSKs then would be of limited utility in a war owing to being vulnerable.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Pete. AIP seems to be no constraint for the follow-on Scorpene deal. Some interesting bits on the indigenous AIP here https://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/pub/newsletter/2018/Sep_18.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Anonymous [at 3/11/18 4:23 AM]

    Thanks for https://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/pub/newsletter/2018/Sep_18.pdf page 26 to 28 on DRDO's AIP plans.

    Actually translating plans into a practical, modern, robust AIP is the hard part for India.

    This is noting not even the Russians or French have fielded modern AIP on operational subs.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi GhalibKabir [at 2/11/18 4:32 PM]

    Yes the Iribis seems the youngest Akula, but still old and likely rusty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akula-class_submarine#Units:
    "Laid down 1994, Construction halted at 42% in 1996,[44] may be completed and leased to India[45][46]"

    As a Russia to India precedent, isn't Chakra II's reactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OK-650_reactor HEU at "20-45%"? I don't know if Huskies will be HEU at 20+%?

    I don't know how Naval Group can help Brazil build or at least plan SN-BR without touching SN-BR's nuclear aspects. A modern subs electronics, buoyancy and airconditioning/scrubbers, etc are so intermingled throughout the whole sub.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Pete, This is anonymous from above. I suppose the user trials on the indigenous AIP prototype was something that piqued my interest. Again, an interesting announcement was made by the Indian PM in disclosing the completion of the first deterrence patrol by SSBN 80 INS Arihant https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/ins-arihant-completes-indias-nuclear-triad-pm-modi-felicitates-crew/articleshow/66509959.cms
    Forums are abuzz with the first somewhat official reveal of its picture in the background of the Indian PM. Here, take a look https://youtu.be/11bSB95wl1E
    It's been argued that INS Arighat is also operational for the sake of any credible deterrence via continuity in such patrols.
    It's also been speculated that K4 SLBM has also already been put to test onboard INS Arihant based on some NOTAM warnings. And, the open hatch incident was a deliberate misinformation fed to the media to cover it up since no such hatch exists which could cause such a damage as per doubled hulled Russian designs https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/deep-diving-into-the-facts-about-ins-arihant-accident/articleshow/62468708.cms
    It would be interesting to know what you think.
    Thanks for the reply

    May be

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Anonymous [at 6/11/18 4:50 AM]

    Looking at https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-submarine/india-says-nuclear-submarine-makes-first-patrol-modi-warns-against-misadventure-idUKKCN1NA1HE

    There were no details from Modi on deterrence capabilities so it doesn't deter specific enemy's except maybe Pakistan e.g. An enemy would ask whether INS Arihant:

    1. was carrying K-15s (range only 750km incapable of hitting China?) or much less likely little sea-tested K-4s (3,000+km could hit China)

    2. no details on nuclear command and control for Arihant's Captain

    3. no details whether nuclear warheads were actually mated to any missiles.

    Need more details for a verifiable deterrent and for comments.

    Its unlikely "open hatch incident was a deliberate misinformation" as being Arihant out of action for so long represented a deeply embarrassing international and domestic problem for the Indian Government, given $multi-billions of taxpayer money spent on the nuclear submarine program.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Pete,
    You seem to have missed the Indo-pacific reference in PM's speech. And, ambiguity as to k15 & K4 is again deliberately with Chinese winter border push in mind. Further the SSBN 80 falls squarely under a highly centralized NCA headed by the PM, if anything the capping ceremony clearly symbolizes that. I mean isn't it odd that earlier this year there were some discussions about Aridhaman/Arighat thing? Couldn't it be that IN used one of the two boats under repair under the guise as Arihant, while Arihant had its deterrence patrol. Very likely K4 testing was complete quite some time back as it would have flooded the tube after launching a silent notice.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Anonymous [at 7/11/18 7:49 AM] on Arihant's alleged patrol.

    Yes as I don't speak Hindi I "missed the Indo-pacific reference in PM's speech".

    But if you are saying Arihant class SSBNs are willing to risk transitting the Malacca Strait (expect many SOSUS arrays), other Indonesian straits or loop around Australia to carry K-15s for launch within China's first island chain (full of Chinese SSKs and SOSUS), then that would be foolhardy.

    Even given the K-4's around 3,500 km range India would need to decide whether to provide "bastion" protection (eg. patrol aircraft) for what are likely to be relatively noisy (1st generation) Arihants operating in Bay of Bengal (likely) or less likely the Pak sub frequented Arabian Sea.

    OR if the Arihants are quiet, like third generation SSBNs, Arihant could operate US/UK/French style mid-oceanic patrols. This is noting even Russia and China still need to use bastions due to geographical obstacles and noise.

    So another Indian problem is that its K-4s have not had the standard 20 moving submerged tests with at least 75% reliability. K-4's, even at 3,500km range, restrict Arihant patrol areas to predictable waters. K-5s of 6s with 10,000+ km range would provide needed operational unpredictability/flexibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K_Missile_family#K-6_Missile

    As the Cold War superpowers found, verifiable, rather than hoped for, capabilities are the best deterrent.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Pete

    Could not Agree more. The K-4 has sort of met the 'Kasturirangan Metric' (he was an ex-missile top guy) and has been tested 3 times (the minimum by his standard)

    Arihant traveling with K-4s (dummy warheads) on a 'practice deterrence patrol' is certainly plausible and much needed. I am happy finally the baby steps are beginning to show.

    But without the K-4 mark 2 (4000 km range) and K-5 (5000+) and K-6 getting tested as much as their Agni land based cousins (dozens of tests over 20 odd years), this 'test patrol' amounts to just that.

    However, for IN to have the kind of patrol ability of even the Jin Class, it will need the K-6 (range between JL-2 and JL-3 or excess of 7,000 km) with a minimum 3 MIRVx45 kt warheads to start being called 'credible sea based deterrent'

    I think that is where the IN will probably reach in the early 2040s (China took as much with the Xia and then the Jin.. spanning 30 plus years of intense efforts)

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thanks GhalibKabir [at 8/11/18 12:36 AM]

    Yes for an Arihant class to go on actual deterrent patrol the deterrer (India) to genuinely worry the deterree (China) would involve K-4s that have been tested many more than 3 times.

    "Arihant traveling with K-4s (dummy warheads) on a 'practice deterrence patrol'" would indeed be a good dry run.

    India proving a "K7?" range of 10,000+ km could allow future Indian SSBNs to patrol safely south into the anonymous waters of the Indian Ocean ie. not in the restricted waters of the Bay of Bengal. Also remembering China could string some pretty good SOSUS from Andaman Sea to Sri Lanka.

    Also all other powers with SSBN have SSNs to protect them
    - with SSN clearance patrols before the the SSBNs leave port-and set out.
    - also Chinese SSNs transitting west through the Straits of Malacca and other Indonesia Straits would need fast Indian SSN interception (SSKs too slow)
    - for India's SSBNs to be adequately secure.

    With INS Arihant having only 4 full sized SLBM silos a 3 x MIRV capability would certainly help. Arighat's 8 full sized silos and maybe 12-16 full sized silos in S4 and S4* would be less MIRV dependent.

    At "45"kT this suggests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boosted_fission_weapon but I suspect that Russia would have already assisted India in 2 stage Fusion. If China can achieve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Test_No._6 in 1967 its likely India has simulated-to-satisfaction 50 years later.

    Yes developing 10,000+km SLBM, 6 x SSNs and further quieting will take 2 or 3 decades.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  13. 1. 45 kT is the max proven deterrence (actual capability is the best indicator of what is realistically employable, hence MIRV to x it). I doubt Russia helped India with the Sloika style boosted fission device support (I am inclined to doubt it)

    The K-X family I assume will eventually have a range in excess of 10,000 km. A Layner/Sineva/Bulava is minimum needed.

    2. SSNs: Without an iota of doubt, without SSNs working in tandem with surface and air assets, the SSBN will be vulnerable. SSNs need to be pushed for... I hope it happens.

    3. other assets: IUSS/SOSUS, very good LRMP aircraft, MH-60R helicopters, frigates/corvettes with high quality variable depth sonar esp. the latest low frequency ones similar to what the Chinese have been pushing to make...

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi GhalibKabir [at 8/11/18 9:22 PM]

    1. Yes having as many MIRVs as possible of 45kt would probably be best suited against Chin + Pak. That is they don't rely on deep dug silos that would justify Indian 100kt 2-stage thermo responses. Instead Chin-Pak may well have many mobile TEL mounted MRBMs.

    I'm making the assumption that India has called on its most reliable strategic ally (or at least big helper)(ie. Russia) to assit India's nuclear capability ie.
    - nuclear submarines (proven)
    - Agni programs (likely)
    - and data or hints to actually progress Indian two-stage thermo warheads further than the 1998 tests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II

    I didn't mean old Russian fission boosted plans but from Russia wealth of two-stage test results that India can now utilise in increasingly capable computer simulations. Pak is of cause considered to have benefitted from China's test program and Israel France's.

    Russia wouldn't respond out of international love but covets Indian money be means of overcharging India for INS Vikramaditya, the rebuild and lease of Chakra II and never ending PAK FA program.

    Yes as Agni series may be even higher priority than nuclear subs Agni advances could one day translate to "K-7" with a 10,000+ km range.

    3. On IUSS/SOSUS China seems to love big building projects. From ancient walls to SCS reefs > air/seaport islands. Along with China's already verified rise in sub-ship activity in the Indian Ocean will come these odd cable laying, or non-specific ships (some without Chinese flags) that will spend an inordinate amount of time moving between Indian Ocean islands...

    Cheers and Have a Good Weekend

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  15. PAK FA we are officially out... it is just a souped up sukhoi effectively and not even a pale shadow of the F-22...stealth only in name...even worse than the F-35

    Cable laying already happening in some places... Sri lanka just signed over a big chunk of land by the port of hambantota... Chinese IUSS highly likely along with endless SSN patrols for bathymetry, other sonar related studies etc. for better enemy sub detection.

    Computer simulation for nuke support, yes possible.

    Chakra II is too highly priced as of now...but I guess one will be leased anyway...

    Agni VI with close to 10,000 km might be possible in the next decade... the new K-7 may be a spin off if and when it emerges... 2027 and later

    Interesting days ahead... Pakistan is now moving around with a begging bowl.. I will worry about the Chinese more...

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi GhalibKabir [at 9/11/18 10:32 PM]

    With Russia, according to the UN's 2016 statistics, having a lower GDP than Australia its no surprise Russia cannot lift PAK FA into being a 5G fighter. Developing engines and stealthy avionics costs money. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

    Re: Sri Lanka to Andaman Sea Chinese IUSS cable laying Ship possibilities. One is Chinese ship "Fu Hai" of 5,700 tonnes. This ship is based in Shanghai but registered in The Bahamas https://www.iscpc.org/cableships-of-the-world/

    Yes many Chinese vessel types, including SSNs, and in future large UUVs, could be involved in Indian Ocean bathymetry, hydrology etc.

    Given North Korean advances in ICBMs India may be capable of 10,000+ kms now. Though reliability, miniaturising into SLBMs and MIRVs may be obstacles.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  17. I wonder if Chinese cable laying ship "Fu Hai":

    (5,700 tonnes, based in Shanghai, registered in the Bahamas https://www.iscpc.org/cableships-of-the-world/

    has visited Kyaukpyu (on the coast of Myanmar) then trip to Hambantota, Sri Lanka?

    see https://navalinstitute.com.au/chinas-string-of-pearls-should-concern-india/

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  18. Cable laying is a reality. Also at another level, ZTE, Huawei etc. supply chips and systems that are capable of electronic eavesdropping as well. With China burning north of USD 70 billion a year to perfect making microprocessors, memory chips as well... it is an entire ecosystem out there. very comprehensively planned,systematically executed with patience.

    The presence in Djibouti, Maldives, the ELF station at Turbat, pakistan along with nearby Gwadar naval facility and of course Hambantota and Western edges of Myanmar are all plausible locations for Chinese naval assets..

    Singapore's founder Lee Kuan Yew was right, no level of improvement in civilization can erase the innate viciousness of human nature that makes them prone to quarrels and wars. China is merely continuing down the path every other colonial power starting with Portugal and Spain went. Something oddly confounding about denying others the very respect the Chinese themselves crave...

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi GhalibKabir [at 23/11/18 6:58 PM]

    Australia has been particularly vigilant in keeping Huawei backbone telco products away from the Australian market.

    Given all the US ELF, satellite recieving stations and air/naval bases dotted around the Indian Ocean China sees no problem doing the sames. Too bad China is on the wrong side.

    So yes, I agree China is following the steps of just about all former imperial powers and colonizersin the Indian Ocean region.

    Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete

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