Arun Prakash,
a former Chief of the Indian Navy has written an excellent article in the Indian Express, November 7, 2018, concerning
the significance of Indian Prime Minister Modi's celebrated “first Arihant deterrent patrol” .
This is
an abridged version, with the full version at: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-significance-of-ins-arihant-nuclear-submarine-navy-5436432/
"The significance of Arihant
[This “third leg of the nuclear triad”, has major problems] for three reasons.
First, there is the issue of missile ranges. From a submarine patrol area in mid-Bay of Bengal, Islamabad is 2,500 km, while Beijing and Shanghai are over 4,000 km. Even from the northern-most edge of the Bay of Bengal, Kunming is 1,600 km and Chengdu 2,000 km. Therefore, to target cities and nuclear forces deep inside China or Pakistan, from a “safe haven”, India needs a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) of 6,000-8,000-km range. The missile, reportedly, carried by the Arihant is the K-15, whose range falls below 1,000 km. SLBMs of longer range are, possibly the way, but they will equip Arihant’s successors.
Second, India has, so far, followed an unorthodox system, in which the National Command Authority (NCA) manages the nuclear deterrent through a “troika” consisting of the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), the Department of Atomic Energy and DRDO. While scientists are the custodians of nuclear warheads and help mate them with the SFC’s missiles and IAF fighter-bombers, the MoD and [Defence Minister (in Hindi “Raksha Mantri”] remain out of the loop.
Which brings us to the third area
of concern — an effective command and control structure to cater for this new
capability.
The Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) is, notionally, a key
functionary in the nuclear command chain,...Under existing rules, the
appointment of chairman is tenable by the senior-most service chief who may
(depending on his retirement date) serve for durations, varying from 30 days to
18 months....
The nuclear-reactors of our SSBNs
will need re-fuelling (with fresh Uranium rods) every few years. The process
being a rather lengthy one, India would require an inventory of at least 3-4
SSBNs to maintain one on deterrent patrol off each seaboard. A small force of
nuclear attack submarines (SSN) would be required for protection of SSBNs and
other roles. Thus, in a 50-60 year perspective, India should be looking at a
nuclear submarine force of 8-12 SSBNs and SSNs.
While Indian scientists, engineers and designers have learnt a lot about
the complex technologies involved in nuclear submarine construction to ensure
that Arihant’s successors are substantially, made in India, there are key areas
of R&D which call for urgent focus and where we may need assistance. These include propellant technology for
SLBMs of inter-continental range; the design of a SSBN which will accommodate a
battery of 16-24 such SLBMs; and the indigenous development of a powerful
nuclear-reactor to drive a 10,000-12,000 ton SSBN...”
Admiral Arun Prakash when he was Chief of the Indian Navy.
Some concerns from editor and academic Ejaz Haider in:
ReplyDelete"India’s n-sub should raise red flags for Pakistan" November 14, 2018 https://navalinstitute.com.au/indias-n-sub-should-raise-red-flags-for-pakistan/
on accidents and chain of command and control problems with Indian SSBNs.
Pete
Abt Adm. Arun Prakash's article: He makes valid points about command and control. But that will happen over time just as it happened after 1998.The NCA and other stakeholders will take time to work stuff out as deterrence becomes a practical reality. The advice is valid but the tone overtly pessimistic.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand why fellow Indians tend to be always moping about the nature of progress with SSBNs/SSNs. India is exactly on the PLAN SSBN Xia/JL-1A route of the late 80s-90s. In fact on the missile front the K-4 is double the range of the JL-1A that the Xia fielded. The Arighat will have 8xK-4 silos which is what Arun Prakash is suggesting. Eventually the K-6 or K-7 with MIRVed warheads and 12-16 siloed SSBNs will be made just like the Type-96 and JL-3. I assume realistically things will move slower than China...
On Ejaz Haider's piece: Ejaz Haider loves the word 'poppycock' a lot (features in twitter feed and articles). Unwittingly he provides a helpful description of his own article. It also shows that the deeply corrosive impact of the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto School of 'One Muslim equals 10 Hindus' so we have to be treated equally school of thought. He is decent enough to not openly say it, but many in PA, PN and PAF openly do say it.
he misses the basic point that the PN being a littoral navy, is not the target of Indian SSBNs. The SSBNs are meant for a different scenario. India's P-8s and SSKs are more than a match and even with the S-20s, India's SSNs and SSKs will be more than up to the task.
if his 'embarrassing logic' for India is any yardstick to go by, the Chinese and Russians should have way more stuff to be ashamed about. it is a false measure and utterly bereft of logic based conclusions. His bias shows clearly when he enters full on poppycock territory about imagined radical elements in the government. Strange considering the fact Modi has been nearly docile after coming to power. This is the same hatred that led pakistan to launch wars in 1948, 65, 71 and 99.
As to mated warheads, even the Chinese were reliably known to not mate warheads on their nuke subs as recently as a couple of years ago. Ejaz haider shows a sense of cavalier disrespect to facts and evidence that is already available. Unless he can provide logical and factually sound arguments, his favorite word will describe his 'analysis' aptly.