A 2017, page 9 Pentagon analysis (which I've just read) is similar to the May 3, 2018 comment on North Korea relying on its nuclear deterrence to prevent invasion of North Korea and Kim Dynasty regime change:
"I doubt if the neocon/militant Trump/Pompeo/Bolton would accept total withdrawal from South Korea - especially of THAAD, US aircraft and US SSN and SSGN visits to SK ports.
I think it unlikely Kim would make substantial and verifiable de-nuclearisation efforts. With timing and Devil in the Detail
I think it unlikely Kim would make substantial and verifiable de-nuclearisation efforts. With timing and Devil in the Detail
If NK denuclearised it would leave itself open to "peaceful" democratic occupation by a much more attr[a]ctive wealthy SK
or the risk of a return of overwelming SK and US forces - remembering the fates of disarmed-regime changed Hussein/Iraq and Gaddafi/Libya.
Also Kim Jong-un (III) would forsake his "dynastic duty" of handing down the grim NK regime to what ever Crown Prince, Kim IV is next.”
It was hoped the Summit could be a positive outcome of Trump's hardline negotiating style against North Korea. But now the opportunity has been dashed. The world remains stuck with the Trump Administration's aggressively negative approach on most things.
See earlier Submarine Matters' article North Korea's Nuclear Deterrent Totally Justified of
May 24, 2018, on North Korea's deterrent preventing a recurrence of its history of being invaded.
Pete
I suspect you are not appreciating the "Art of Negotiation". The cancellation by Trump likely increases the odds of a favorable outcome.
ReplyDeleteI was hardcore anti-Trump. But I keep myself open to actualities on the ground and am willing to change my opinion. Trump has surprised to the upside. Sure, hate the man, but it acceptable to like his policies.