Amended Improvements & Higher Costs of Soryu Mark IIs Over Mark Is

Based on Anonymous comments of August 11-12, 2017 I have compiled TABLE 1 below. For an overview of the Soryu program see TABLE 2 below that:

Soryu Mark IIs are likely to cost more than US$91 million = 10 Billion (B) Yen (¥) than Soryu Mark Is, due to new:

-  LIB batteries replacing (LABs+Stirling AIP) and diesel generator sets (gensets) for greater power

   generation, and

-  sonar systems for improved detection of the enemy and for better submerged navigation-by-sonar

Anonymous on August 18-21, 2017 kindly provided amendments direct to Pete for TABLE 1 and the footnotes below it. 

TABLE 1 [Amendments in Green and Violet]]

Item/Submarine Type	Soryu Mark I	Soryu Mark II (27SS & 28SS)		Comments
SS order number	26SS	27SS	28SS	See Soryu Table below
Batteries + AIP (where applicable)	LABs + Stiling AIP	NCA-LIBs [1]	ß
Cost of battery/Soryu in Billion Yen (\***B) [2]	LABs \1.44B	NCA-LIBs \8.3B	ß	LIBs per Soryu almost 6 times costs of LABs
Relative price to LABs [3]	1	4.8 (576 LIBs) 5.8 (480 LIBs)	ß
Specific energy (Wh/kg) [4]	40-60	240	ß	LIBs have 4-6 x the specific energy of LABs
Total cost per Soyu in Billion Yen [5]	\51.7B	\64.4B	\63.6B
Building cost [6]	\31.2B	\38.7B	\35.9B
(a)Cost of customer-supplied products [7]	\20.5B	\25.7B	\27.7B
(b)LABs or LIBs	\1.44B	\8.3B	\8.3B
(c)Stirling AIP	\2.72B	0	0	Estimation value
(d)=(a)-(b)-(c) [8]	\16.3B	\17.4B	\19.4B	Estimation value
(e)Sonars	\3-4B	+w B	+x B	Estimation value
(f)Generators	\2B	+y B	+z B	Estimation value
(g)Propulsion motor [10]	\1.3B (25SS)	\1.2B	\1.0B

[1]  The Soryu Mark IIs (27SS and 28SS) will likely be equipped with (NCA LIBs) Lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide ( LiNiCoAlO2 ) made by GS Yuasa.

 

[2]  According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s (MOD's) Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) the costs of LABs and NCA-LIBs are reported to be 1.44 ¥B and 8.3 ¥B, respectively. This makes NCA-LIBs just under 6 times more expensive than LABs for each Soryu sub. But, in terms of cost/performance (see [3]), NCA-LIBs are not overly expensive.

[3]  More precisely, price ratio of LAB to NCA-LIB is 4.8 and 5.8 for 576 and 480 LIBs in Soryu Mark II, respectively.

[4]  Specific energy of NCA-LIBs are 240 Wh/kg and LABs are 40-60 Wh/kg. The specific energy of NCA-LIBs are 4 to 6 times that of LABs, nearly the same as the above mentioned price raitio.

[5]  Soryu Mark IIs will cost ¥12-13B more than Mark Is. That cost increase is due to major Soryu Mark II enhancements, including LIBs, new snorkel generation system, new gensets and new sonar system.

[6]  In Japanese submarine building, the MOD offers customer-supplied products to the builders (KHI and MHI) for cost reduction and the MOD pays building costs. Building costs consist of materials, labor and utilities (water, electricity, etc) etc.

[7]  Customer-supplied products include the command system, weapon/sensor system, communication system and propulsion/generater/battery system. Building costs consist of materials, labor, utilities (water, electricity, etc) etc.

[8]  (c) is changes in customer-supplied products, except AIP + batteries. This gives some insights into other modifications. In the Soryu Mark II, priority in modifications is orientated towards the performance of the LIBs. In terms of changes in (d), the snorkel generation system and gensets are modified for 27SS and the sonar system is also modified for 28SS, I believe.

[9]  The Japanese submarine builders (KHI and MHI) cannot earn much because of strict budget management by the MOD. But, the cost of Japanese submarines may provide some insight into the price of other convensional submarines. The size of submarines will affect the cost of submarine building more than the cost of customer-supplied products. Even very small submarines need a  command system, weapon/sensor system, communication system and propulsion/generater/battery system. 

But, in the small submarine building process, amounts of materials, labor (in man days) and utilities can be reduced. In submarines half the size of the Soryu, building costs become significantly lower and other costs become a bit lower, Y20-25B and Y10B, respecrively. The purchaser can buy the latest small submarine for Y30-35B. If a submarine builders can sell subs for Y50-60B, they can make high profits. That is why bribe scandals are prominent.

[10] The propusion system consists of one small motor and one large motor in the Soryu Mark I. The small motor  is used at low speed and the two motors are used at high speed. Soryu Mark II is likely to be equipped with two same large motors. If these Soryu Mark II armatures are larger a higher speed performance is expected.

 TABLE 2 - Overview of SORYU (& Oyashio) Programs as at August 15, 2017

SS No.	Build No Name	Pennant No.	MoF approved amount ¥ Billions & FY	LABs, LIBs, AIP	Laid Down	Laun -ched	Commi-ssioned	Built By
5SS Oyashio	8105 Oyashio	SS-590/ TS3608	¥52.2B FY1993	LABs only	Jan 1994	Oct 1996	Mar 1998	KHI
6SS-15SS Oyashios 10 subs	8106 -8115 various	SS-591-600	¥52.2B per sub FY1994-FY2003	LABs only	15SS Feb 2004	15SS Nov 2006	15SS Mar 2008	MHI & KHI
16SS Soryu Mk 1	8116 Sōryū	SS-501	¥60B FY2004	LABs + AIP	Mar 2005	Dec 2007	Mar 2009	MHI
17SS	8117 Unryū	SS-502	¥58.7B FY2005	LABs + AIP	Mar 2006	Oct 2008	Mar 2010	KHI
18SS	8118 Hakuryū	SS-503	¥56.2 FY2006	LABs + AIP	Feb 2007	Oct 2009	Mar 2011	MHI
19SS	8119 Kenryū	SS-504	¥53B FY2007	LABs + AIP	Mar 2008	Nov 2010	Mar 2012	KHI
20SS	8120 Zuiryū	SS-505	¥51B FY2008	LABs + AIP	Mar 2009	Oct 2011	Mar 2013	MHI
No 21SS			No 21SS built
22SS	8121 Kokuryū	SS-506	¥52.8B FY2010	LABs + AIP	Jan 2011	Oct 2013	Mar 2015	KHI
23SS	8122 Jinryu	SS-507	¥54.6B FY2011	LABs + AIP	Feb 2012	Oct 2014	7 Mar 2016	MHI
24SS	8123 Sekiryū	SS-508	¥54.7B FY2012	LABs + AIP	15 Mar 2013	2 Nov 2015	13 Mar 2017	KHI
25SS	8124 Seiryū	SS-509	¥53.1B FY2013	LABs + AIP	22 Oct 2013	12 Oct 2016	Mar? 2018	MHI
26SS	8125	SS-510	¥51.7B FY2014	LABs + AIP	2014	?	Mar 2019?	KHI
27SS First Soryu Mk 2	8126	SS-511	¥64.4B FY2015	LIBs only	2015	2017?	Mar 2020	MHI
28SS  Second Soryu Mark 2	8127	SS-512	¥63.6B FY2016	LIBs only	2016?	2018?	Mar 2021?	KHI
29SS First of New Class	?	?	¥76B FY2018	LIBs only	?	?	2023?	MHI?

Table courtesy of exclusive information provided to Submarine Matters. LABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP=air independent propulsion, LIBs=lithium-ion batteries. ¥***B = Billion Yen.

Anonymous and Pete