Peter Jennings' Australia-Japan Strategic Cooperation Commentary

China is not the only country that claims and builds on islands, reefs and shoals in the South China Sea. Above is a map of the Spratly Islands, South China Sea. What looks like the US Stars and Stripes is, in fact, Malaysia's flag. The red flag with large star, dead center, is Vietnam's. Flat Island and Commodore Reef etc are claimed by the Philippines.

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Peter Jennings, the Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has written a thought provoking commentary, of March 29, 2017. The commentary (at https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/tokyo-canberra-time-recast-defence-ties/ ) is an “edited extract of a speech he delivered to the Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo [on March 28, 2017]”

His main themes are: challenges to the global order generally; especially in the Asia-Pacific, and the need for greater Australia-Japan strategic cooperation.

Some parts I disagree with but I agree with most.

I disagree on:

-  countries “quite explicitly challenging the rules-based order, specifically:

   :  “Russia invaded and annexed the Crimea in 2012 it broke a European norm”.  I think Russia has

      had a naval base/enclave in Crimea since 1783. The change of status/government in Ukraine 

      upset a strategically stabilising Russian influence. Russia used its power to retain the enclave.

      Significantly this Russian resistance is no worse than the US maintaining its enclave/naval base

      at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba even though the legitimate government of Cuba has opposed the

      base for decades. Equally the government of Spain has opposed  the British enclave/base of 

      Gibraltar since 1727. Britain secured Gibraltar by force of arms in 1704.

   :  Iran has forces in neighbouring countries that may be even more legitimate than the concept of 

      great powers and middle powers far from that region injecting their naval, ground and air forces

      into the oil rich countries near Iran (especially Iraq and Syria).

   :  Israel is a constant disturbance to regional stability eg. in the Syrian (Golan Heights) territory and

      illegal Israeli settlements in "Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 including East

      Jerusalem". See United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334 adopted on 23 December 2016.
      Israel's anti-rules based ownership of nuclear weapons gives Israel a feeling of immunity when it 
      is bombing targets in Syria and invading Lebanon. Israel's illegal ownership of nuclear weapons
      is also a major motivation for Iran to build a nuclear arsenal.

   :  China considers some South China Sea islands its own just as other countries (Vietnam, 

      Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei etc) in the region consider other South China Sea islands their own       and build structures on them (sea map above).

The most extreme challenger to the international order is North Korea but that goes unmentioned

  

I agree on:

-  Need to build closer military and strategic Australia and Japanese partnership for regional stability.

-  that ASEAN is not a strategic alliance hence fragmented and ineffective in holding China back

-  that Japan has much to be worried about China’s rapid military expansion in military capability. 

-  but even more so Japan should worry about North Korea’s rising nuclear military capability

-  useful common ground for Australia-Japan that includes:

   :  the uses and maintenance of F-35A, “Joint Strike Fighter”

   :  anti-submarine warfare,

   :  ballistic and cruise missile defences,

   :  maritime and air combat capability (eg. Aegis destroyers, maritime patrol aircraft, large

      reconnaissance UAVs etc)

      UAVs etc)

   :  space cooperation

   :  cyber offensive, defensive capability and cooperation.

   :  closer interoperability in all military functions with US and Japan

   :  special forces capabilities for counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency

With mention of “high-end military operations” - could this include submarine operations from Australia in the South China Sea and/or even into the East China Sea?

"S" advises that Julie Bishop, the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Marise Payne, Australian Minister for Defence, will met their Japanese counterparts at the Australia-Japan Foreign and Defence Ministerial (2+2) Consultations in Tokyo in April 2017.

I agree with Peter Jennings' suggestion when President Trump visits Japan later in 2017 Australian Prime Minister Turnbull (and his advisers) could be invited to participate in trilateral talks with Abe and Trump. China should be confident of its own position not to try to scuttle a trilateral arangement  with more Chinese Demarches of the type that scuttled the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in June 2007.

Peter Coates