Indian submarine update - Slow progress commissioning.

PETE COMMENT

India is facing a rapidly increasing submarine threat from:

-  Chinese SSNs and SSKs visiting (and perhaps patrolling) the Indian Ocean

-  2 x Ming SSKs just commissioned into the Bangladesh Navy, and

-  8 new S20s for Pakistan under construction over the next decade. This is in addition to Pakistan’s

   current force of 3 x AIP Agostas.

This gradually increasing regional submarine threat suggests India should speed up its launching and commissioning of new submarines. Of the few countries that build all submarine classes (SSKs, SSNs and SSBNs) China has a high defence budget [$215 Billion in 2015 (SIPRI)] - but SSN/SSBN development has still been slow. 

Like China India is a relative latecomer to submarine design and construction – so India, from a low base, needs to develop submarines quickly. India’s design, building and commissioning of SSKs, SSNs and SSBN has been even slower than China’s partly because India devotes a much lower budget to defence [only $53.6 Billion in 2015 (SIPRI)].

Pete has discussed the following with an Anonymous knowledgeable about Indian submarine matters.

SLOW SUBMARINE CONSTRUCTION

Since Pete wrote India's Plans for 21 More Subs including SSNs of August 24, 2014 India has only launched 2 Scorpenes of the Kalvari class though - none have been commissioned (yet).

[Pete Comment] India’s desire for 6 to 12 AIP SSKs under Project-75I (for India) may be obstructed by India’s (more precisely DRDO’s) desire that the winning submarine company should transfer advanced AIP technology to India. Advanced AIP secrets are tightly held due to their high strategic and commercial value.

[Pete Comment] The launch of India's first true SSBN, INS Aridhaman, was expected to occur as far back as late 2012/early 2013 but no recorded launch yet. INS Aridhaman is apparently ready to be launched and start trials later in 2017. I suspect the delay is in developing an efficient, quiet reactor for Aridhaman and the 3 x SSBNs to follow.

The reactor problems are also likely to be the main reason no progress has been made in the project to build 6 indigenous SSNs. I’ve read somewhere that the SSN program has been suspended until some SSBNs (starting with Aridhaman) have finally been commissioned. 

Anonymous advises - The Russians have not been very receptive to India’s need for SSN help. Russia has not permitted to lease Yasen type SSNs or handed over Yasen blueprints.

WEAPONS PROGRESS

While there has been only slow progress in launching submarines India has made greater strides in developing missiles for submarine launch. Missiles under development for submarine include

-  the BrahMos supersonic cruise (tested to 450 km with eventual range of 800 km) is capable of
   anti-shipping and (nuclear warhead) land attack. As of now BrahMos has been tested from
   underwater pontoons and will likely be installed on the Kilo subs initially. If the 6 to 12 future
   SSKs for Project 75I end up with VLS they may start with BrahMos initially.

-  the Nirbhay SLCM ( 1000 km initial up to 1500 km finally) for longer range land attack are. 

-  India is likely to fit K-15 SLBMs to its future SSBNs after initially fitting the BrahMos and 
   Nirbhay SLCM to Indian SSKs and SSBNs.

Aridhaman with  its 8 silos for K-4s will weigh at least 7000 tons. “Aridhaman needs a larger reactor.”

SLOW REACTOR PROGRESS

Following on from Indian Submarine Propulsion Reactor Needs - Arihant, Aridhaman & Chakra II of March 27, 2017. 

India (probably like China) is only making slow progress in developing powerful submarine reactors that are sufficiently quiet for stealthy operation. India has been heavily reliant, for decades, on Russian assistance for submarine reactors. But Anonymous advises “The [83 MW] PWR made by BARC for Arihant is inadequate.”

“I for one heard unverified news in Delhi last year that BARC has succeeded in providing close to 25,000 kW shaft horsepower which implies a 125-140 MW reactor... I am not ready to believe this as I mentioned before Russian help has slowed down despite [Indian Prime Minister] Modi [offering inducements of leasing] another Akula and [buying the] S-400 SAM system in 2016......" 

Pete Comment - So India is closely protecting the rate of its reactor progress and progress in developing nuclear hulls. Russian assistance in reactor development and testing also remains mostly classified. Only optimistic references to SSK building schedules and missile launchings are regularly publicised.

It is odd the above Youtube talks of INS Aridhaman currently being tested at sea and being inducted/commissioned in 2018. The oddity is that I have seen no reports of Aridhaman even being launched! Would politicians (Prime Minister? Defence Minister?) and other Indian VIPs pass up the opportunity to be reported present at the launch of India's first true SSBN?
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Indian submarine numbers - with a wide gap between "Desired" and actually "Held" as at November 13, 2015. Numbers still current due to slow progress. (Diagram courtesy Indian Express).
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Pete and Anonymous