Great minds think alike :)
This Opinion
Piece of July 23, 2016 provides an excellent discussion on Turnbull
electoral and shipbuilding strategy, as well as steel and original Australian content issues for the
DCNS Shortfin submarines.I’d like to think there was some inspiration from my special report “Australian Election and Shipbuilding” (to donors) and Submarine Matters’ articles (written for free) over the last few days, weeks and months.
Before each of
the paragraphs of the Opinion Piece below I will provide a quote or link to “Australian
Election and Shipbuilding” (of 13/7/2016) and the relevant Submarine Matters article(s) with the date(s).
Submarine Matters Articles and a Comment
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From Opinion Piece
|
My comment
of 19/7/2016 "
|
“…An unwieldy
cabinet of 23 …underline Turnbull’s weakened position and the fact he can’t
afford to make more enemies.”
|
My article
of 18/7/2016 “Where I indicated in Australian Election and
Shipbuilding (of July 13, 2016) that Prime
Minister Turnbull's imminent post Election Ministerial reshuffle would
likely involve:
"However, [Defence Minister Marise Payne's] portfolio, with its
domestically influential shipbuilding programs, is now attractive to others, including Abbott"..."Alternatively the centrist
(and significantly South Australian) Christopher Pyne may take her
position."
The message of a diminuation of Marise Paynes' defence
industry power appears accurate.
Mr Pyne has made unsolicited comments on submarine
building policy for at least a year - as these articles on Submarine
Matters reveal.
Just announced today (July 18, 2016) in Turnbull's
post Election Ministerial reshuffle is Christopher Pyne's new role of
Minister for Defence Industry.
|
“Central to
the promise to deliver an economic transformation and the most significant
change in cabinet was the gutting of Marise Payne’s defence ministry and the
huge portfolio promotion for Christopher Pyne as Defence Industry Minister.”
|
My article
of 21/9/2015 "
She and the
whole Australian Federal Cabinet will have to:
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Yet on every
count there are signs Turnbull’s strongly stated intentions may not be
fulfilled, and that includes the central economic transformation of $90bn in
defence spending.
“…Yet at the
same hearing she would not commit to giving a percentage of how much of the
subs would be built in Adelaide, refused to say a minimum would be 70 per
cent and said the aim was “to maximise Australian industry involvement”.”
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Further from Submarine Matters Articles
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From Opinion Piece
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From my “Australian Election and Shipbuilding”
in WORD that I emailed out to donors on 13/7/2016. “The Australian July 2,
2016 Election result confirms the Government was on the right political track
pursuing a South Australian-centric shipbuilding strategy. But it also leaves
scope for much instability…
The result appears to re-affirm that the Government followed the right
electoral strategy in its April 2016 announcements (here and here) that most of the surface
shipbuilding tonnage and all of the new submarines should be built in South
Australia (SA)… Turnbull in Opposition proved he was not a stayer
when confronted with the frustrating grind of negotiation and conflicting
interests. The clash of interests now include centrists and conservatives in
his own Government. The election results have proven Turnbull does not have
the sure hand (that many expected him to have) to win elections.”
My article
on Arrium of 4/April/2016 “The steel plant at Whyalla, owned by Arrium, makes “long steel”
products - mainly steel reinforcing bars and beams for homes and
buildings.
It is possible that
Arrium could gear up to make the few hundred tonnes of steel beams needed in
Australia's Future Submarine project. But this would only be
needed in the mid 2020s based on the Turnbull Government's plans to delay the
Future Submarines build until the late 2020s. For an Australian
submarine build, first steel might only be cut in 2028.
The example of any
Australian company making submarine steel overwhelmingly involves a
fundamentally different type of product, that is flat steel for
submarine hulls.
The precedent of an
Australian company producing submarine steel seems limited to Port
Kembla-Wollongong based Bisalloy
Steels Pty Ltd. This only involved Bisalloy making 8,000 tonnes of steel in the 1980s-1990s for the Collins
submarine program. There was research and development involvement from
BHP.
Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) was also involved - see "High-strength steel and welds" here.
My article
of 26/4/2016 “Collins steel mainly made in Port Kembla,-Wollongong, NSW”
My
article
of 20/1/2015 “Australian
companies approached by Japan may include BHP-Billiton and BlueScope Steel.
However the main company Japan approaches is likely to be current naval
steelmaker Bisalloy
Steels Pty Ltd based in Port Kembla-Wollongong, New South Wales,
Australia.
In the 1980s-1990s
Bisalloy supplied 8,000 tonnes of hardened steel for the Collins submarine
program with research and development involvement of BHP and the Defence
Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO).
Bisalloy Steels Pty Ltd (company website) has connections to Indonesia (PT Bima Bisalloy), Thailand (Bisalloy Thailand) and from July 2011 investment in the Chinese CJV - Bisalloy Jigang (Shandong) Steel Plate Co. Ltd. It would be crucial that Japanese-Australian submarine steel technology does not find its way to foreign affiliates - particularly China.” |
“Turnbull’s
announcement of the successful French bidder for the subs on the eve of the
election to “see Australian workers building Australian submarines with
Australian steel” was at the heart of the Liberal attempts to stave off
defeat in several seats in South Australia.”
“What’s more,
naval chiefs said the strength of the steel needed for submarines was not
produced at Whyalla’s Arrium and only Bisalloy, in Wollongong, NSW, had
produced the necessary grade of tensile steel used in the Collins-class
submarines.”
|
More from Opinion
Piece of July 23, 2016.
“They also said
the same steel had to be used in all parts of the submarine, which could
include bits produced in France. Evidence was also given that by Turnbull’s
prediction of 2019 for the next election, the design process for the new
Barracuda Shortfin French sub would be only three years into its five-year
starting phase.
It is possible
that even by 2019 it won’t be certain as to what steel will be needed for the
hull and the government will again run the risk of going to an election with an
unresolved promise to South Australia on submarines.
The government
has already given the impression of an all-Australian build, with Australian
workers using Australian steel, when it cannot possibly be known what
percentage will be Australian made and neither the builders nor the Australian
navy can give any real assurance.
But Pyne kept
boosting the benefits after his first official meeting as Defence Industry
Minister with the leaders of the Future Submarine program on Wednesday, saying
it “will bring unprecedented economic benefit to Australia, driving jobs and
growth across the country”.
The appointment
of Pyne as a South Australian “fixer” to ensure promises are kept is a sign
that Payne was not seen as assertive enough and that her cabinet colleagues
were anxious. Having made a great deal only nine months ago of appointing
Australia’s first female Defence Minister as part of a promotion of women into
cabinet, Turnbull could do no more to address the concern….”
Pete
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