North Korea's Three Sinpo-Golf SSBKs Being Built Heavier

H I Sutton of Covert Shores has produced this excellent artwork (above and below) depicting a North Korean "Gorae" Sinpo class SSBK fring one of its two SLBMs. Click here to greatly enlarge image and text below.

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North Korea Naval Bases and Fleet HQs. Mini-submarines and Sinpo-Golf "SSBKs" might operate out of Sagin Ni (under West Sea Fleet Command) and/or Sinpo - Mayang Do and Chaho Submarine Bases (under East Sea Fleet Command). The likely North Korean nuclear missile launch points (including SLBMs) would have been defined by Russian, Chinese and Western military intelligence for years, with constant sensor surveillance and cueing of first and/or second strike forces. Golf SSBKs could also be seen as Sinpo class depending on the extent of modernisation-component replacement. SSBK means conventional diesel electric propelled submarine capable of firing large nuclear tipped ballistic missiles. (Map courtesy US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA))

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QUESTION

At thread Nicky asked Jan 11, 2016 5:51AM:

"So how likely did the North Koreans reverse engineered and brought back to life the Golf-class and what Variant of the Golf class SSB have they reversed engineered. How easy would a sonar tech be able to find them."

RESPONSE

I estimate the NKs renovated or are renovating around 3 (military "Rule of Thirds") of their very old ex-Soviet Golf SSKs up to SLBM capability. In 1993, ten Golfs were sold to North Korea for scrap.^[5] According to some sources, the North Koreans are attempting to get these boats back into service.^[6]

The NKs probably used/are using contractors (on a state-sanctioned or venal/covert basis) from Russia and maybe China in this renovation effort to SLBM capability. The lack of Iranian or Pakistani experience with SSBNs or SLBMs makes contractors from Iran or Pakistan less likely.

It would be unnecessary to reverse engineer whole Golfs but mainly integrate some modern features (especially electronics and engines) into the three Sinpo-Golf SSBKs. 

Sinpo-Golf SSBKs could also be seen as Sinpo class depending on the extent of modernisation-component replacement. Sinpo class, if 1,000-1,500 ton displacement have been considered too light to launch SLBMs in a stable and safe way for the submarine and for the 2 or 3 SLBMs. 

In the 1950s the Russians saw the stability-safety deficiencies in the 2,000 ton Zulu V class. More recently Washington Free Beacon (read US intelligence) January 8, 2016 reported:

"Defense officials said the successful test followed an earlier test failure on Nov. 27 [2015] that nearly sank North Korea’s [presumably 1,500 ton Sinpo?] missile-firing submarine, known as the Gorae, or Whale. The November [2015] ejection test caused significant damage, and the submarine was observed returning to the port of Sinpo listing at a 45-degree angle.".

 The Soviets/Russians built the Golfs twice as heavy (around 3,000 tons) in the late 1950s to provide a stable-safe launch point for the 3 SLBMs. All this may mean NK may be adding extra tonnage to its Sinpo design to make it a viable SSBK.

These Sinpo-Golf SSBKs are probably very noisy due to their obsolete shapes and reverberations of incompatible equipment. This deficiency is made worse for NK by many Western, Chinese and Russian sensors (including sonar) being cued against the Golfs and against other potential NK nuclear missile launch points.

Due to easy detection of the Sinpo-Golfs SSBKs NK would likely pursue a stategy of keeping them in NK (missile and aircraft) protected waters - much as China has done with its noisy Type 094 Jin SSBNs. 

The general assumption of North Korea nuclear missile crews, that firing their missiles is the last thing they do before the crews themselves are "nuked", would apply to silo, land-mobile and SSBK crews.

Regards

Pete