Turnbull Govt New Policy - 70% Future Submarine to Be Built in Australia

Lucy Turnbull (on right in photo) is also powerful. (Photo courtesy Herald Sun).

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With the end of Parliamentary Question Time finished in the first week of (Prime Minister) Turnbull's Government some observations can be made.

The replacement of Tony Abbott with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is worrying Japanese submarine sales teams in Adelaide and Canberra. There is concern that understandings to buy the Japanese submarine have now been cancelled.

Turnbull’s diplomatic style and attitude to any alliance with Japan is unknown. Abbott’s sudden closeness to Abe may need to be recreated by Japan.

Turnbull is politically a moderate while Abbott and Abe were kindred conservatives.

Turnbull’s wife, Lucy Turnbull, is powerful in her own right. Her most prominent past role was Lord Mayor of Sydney.

Turnbull's current attitude to the China military threat may not be the same as Abbott’s. The views of Turnbull’s Defence Minister, Kevin Andrews or a replacement, may be more influential. The trilateral Japan-US-Australia alliance (or quadrilateral - adding India) is probably still the informal though not official policy.

It has yet to be confirmed in Hansard (officially recording Parliamentary House of Representatives statements) whether Kevin Andrews, who is still Defence Minister, stated in Parliamentiary Question Time (September 17, 2015) that perhaps 70% to 80% of new submarine work could be done in Australia. If so this may signal a change in policy. Note that the current feeling by industry in Australia is that Australia will order 8 submarines overall – not 12.

[Fairfax, Sydney Morning Herald journalists reported (September 17, 2015) the same Andrews statement:
"I see that one of the bidders has said that they can build a significant part of a submarine here in Australia - some 70 to 80 per cent," Mr Andrews told Parliament. "That means that we're going to have more jobs, a significant part of that build, perhaps 70 to 80 per cent of submarines, built here in Australia." Note the DCNS offer described in the same article.]

Perhaps in Japan’s favour is that Australia still appears locked into using the US submarine combat system - giving the US considerable political, economic and alliance influence over Australia’s choice of submarine.

Japan needs to be prepared for “build in Australia” or at least the Hybrid Build option which may mean 70% build in Australia. The build percentage could conceivably include submarine steelmaking in Australia.

Pete