Japan's Epsilon Rocket, An ICBM in Waiting

A 3 stage Japanese Epsilon research rocket (potentially an ICBM) being launched from Uchinoura Space Center in southern Japan.

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Specifications for the Epsilon include: Height 24.4m, Diameter 2.5m, Mass 91 tons, 3 or 4 stages. Its shape, with no strap-on boosters, is ideal for silo, rail or truck launch. Reduced to 2 stages it might provide the basis for an SLBM.

Modern ballistic missiles generally have solid fuel stages (for quicker preparation and more rugged handling) rather than liquid. So it is more than a coincidence that the first, second and third stages of the Epsilon are solid fuel.

The Epsilon's specifications are very similar to the fully developed (but then cancelled) US MX missile ICBM. For comparison the MX's specs are Height 22m, Diameter 2.3m, Weight 97 tons, 3 stages, blast yield 3 Mt total (using up to 10 MIRVs).

The extent to which the US assisted JAXA's Epsilon Project is unclear. Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA) is Japan’s NASA equivalent. Space agencies have dual military-civilian use technology and dual-use career personnel. JAXA, and of course NASA, are dual-use - although space agencies rarely admit this. 

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More see Doug Tsuruoka, "Can Japan's Epsilon rocket be used as an ICBM?" Asia Times, on January 23, 2018, at https://asiatimes.com/2018/01/can-japans-epsilon-rocket-used-icbm/ which answers in the affirmative.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA) solid-fueled Epsilon rocket launched seven different satellites into orbit from Uchinoura Space Center on January 17, 2018.

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These armament plans have raised regional concerns that Tokyo may be shedding its post-World War II pacifist defense posture.

"What is worrisomely ... is that Japan's rearmament would be met with China's reaction, which could cause regional instability," Korea National Defense University Japan researcher Park Young-june said.

The United States, however, is seen as supportive of Japan taking on a more assertive regional role, as it could be useful in meeting the challenge of China's growing military might."

Background

In existing literature the focus for an ICBM in waiting has been on Japan's M-V (also known as the Mu-5 and M-5) rocket. But the M-V was too large to be a viable ICBM and used liquid fuel, less useful for an ICBM than the Epsilon's sold fuel. The M-V was effectively replaced by the Epsilon in 2007.

Further information on the Epsilon rocket is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_(rocket):

The Epsilon was officially developed to reduce satellite and space research launch costs, primarily by using the solid rocket booster of the H-IIA as the Epsilon's first stage. Existing M-V upper stages will be used for the second and third stages. Another primary aim is to achieve much shorter launch preparation time - which is usually seen as an ideal attribute of an ICBM.

Japan has more than enough nuclear explosive Plutonium and HEU for a nuclear capability - see http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/japan-and-chinas-dispute-goes-nuclear/.

Pete