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Click to enlarge.
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In the realm of speculation - it is hard to be sure whether Pakistan has a thermonuclear capability (ie. H bombs).
While Pakistan's industrial and likely
scientific base suggests it doesn't have H-bombs most Pakistani nuclear weapons
designs and much testing were most probably courtesy of China. So no-one other than China and Pakistan itself know if China supplied H-bomb designs or even devices
to Pakistan as a counter to India's likely H-bomb capability.
Russian nuclear weapon assistance to India is likely given the known scale and depth of India-Russian strategic and weapons relations. This includes excessive amounts of Indian defence money paid to Russia for oddly unproductive projects like INS Vikramaditya, known Russian assistance in building the reactor for INS Arihant and leasing of INS Chakra I and the current nuclear propelled INS Chakra "II" (ex Nerpa).
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Below are more confidently known details on Pakistan’s nuclear weapon programs partly drawn from pages 51-58 of Zia Mian's Pakistan chapter in Ray Acheson's (edit), Assuring Destruction Forever: Nuclear Weapons Modernisation Around the World, Reaching Critical Will, New York, March 2012. download: http://reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Publications/modernization/assuring-destruction-forever.pdf (note its 6.11 MB) or try https://www.princeton.edu/sgs/faculty-staff/zia-mian/Pakistan-nuclear-modernization-2012.pdf.
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Pakistan is moving from an arsenal of weapons based wholly
on HEU to greater reliance on lighter and more compact plutonium-based weapons.
This is being made possible by a rapid expansion in plutonium production
capacity, with two production reactors under construction to add to the two
reactors that are currently operating. Pakistan has received direct assistance
from China for its nuclear weapons and missile programs, from North
Korea for its missile program and unintentionally enrichment technology from Urenco (through A Q Khan's espionage).
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There is almost no information about the funding of
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons production is
probably and unintentionally cross-subsidized from large amounts of military aid from the United States. Between 2001 and June 2012 Pakistan
may have received US$24 billion in aid from the United States, of which over $15 billion was military assistance, over
$7 billion in economic aid and over $1 billion in covert funding (including bribes) to ISI and other influential institutions.
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Some Chinese aid might be intentionally earmarked for the nuclear program. There are rumours that the Saudi aid is tied, in the sense that the Saudis have generated Pakistani indebtedness which would demand Pakistani nuclear assistance if Saudi Arabia were under nuclear threat (presumably from Iran or Israel).
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Meanwhile US intelligence and Special Forces are believed to be fairly confident (although perhaps not 100%) that they can locate and destroy all of Pakistan's nuclear weapons if military and civil order breaks down and prior to suicide-jihadis siezing the weapons.
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Up to 130,000 Pakistanis are believed to be involved in nuclear weapon, research, production, deployment and guard duties. This may absorb all aid Pakistan receives from all countries, including tribute from Afghanistan.
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Some Chinese aid might be intentionally earmarked for the nuclear program. There are rumours that the Saudi aid is tied, in the sense that the Saudis have generated Pakistani indebtedness which would demand Pakistani nuclear assistance if Saudi Arabia were under nuclear threat (presumably from Iran or Israel).
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Meanwhile US intelligence and Special Forces are believed to be fairly confident (although perhaps not 100%) that they can locate and destroy all of Pakistan's nuclear weapons if military and civil order breaks down and prior to suicide-jihadis siezing the weapons.
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Up to 130,000 Pakistanis are believed to be involved in nuclear weapon, research, production, deployment and guard duties. This may absorb all aid Pakistan receives from all countries, including tribute from Afghanistan.
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Pakistan may also have developed more advanced ‘boosted’weapons, which inject tritium gas into the pit just before it explodes thus increasing the proportion of fissile material that actually undergoes fission -therefore significantly increasing the explosive yield of the nuclear weapon. Pakistan is not believed to have developed thermonuclear weapons (hydrogen bombs).
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Pakistan's tactical/battlefield and strategic nuclear missiles (under Army Strategic Force Command) and "nuclear" fast jets, under Air Force Strategic Command, all have km ranges designed for deterrence/conflict with India. Secondary uses might include deterrence of US forces in Afghanistan, in Middle East bases, and against carrier groups offshore.
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Pakistan's nuclear capable, fast jets include the F-16 and Mirage V.
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Pakistan is moving from liquid-fueled missiles (like the Gauris) to solid-fueled (like the Shaheens) missiles (with solid fuels promoting rapid launch, safety and greater mobility). Pakistan has received assistance from North Korea and China with its missile programme. Pakistan's ballistic and cruise nuclear capable missiles, by increasing range, are:
Pakistan is moving from liquid-fueled missiles (like the Gauris) to solid-fueled (like the Shaheens) missiles (with solid fuels promoting rapid launch, safety and greater mobility). Pakistan has received assistance from North Korea and China with its missile programme. Pakistan's ballistic and cruise nuclear capable missiles, by increasing range, are:
- Ghaznavi (Hatf 3), notional range of 290 km to conform to the MTCR given its possible Chinese origins, range may actually be 400 km, deployed 2004
- an air launched 350 km range, Ra’ad (Hatf 8) cruise missile under test from 2007, to be deployed 2013(?).
- Pakistan is also developing a nuclear-capable 600 km range, ground-launched Babur (Hatf 7) turbojet, cruise missile, deployed 2011(?).
- Shaheen II (Hatf ) is a 2,000 km range, solid fuel missile, deployed 2011 (article).
- Shaheen-III believed under current development with solid fuel stages and expected range of around 4,500 km.
According to a secret US cable published by Wikileaks, US officials suggested in 2008 that Pakistan was producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world. US Government estimates Pakistan’s stockpile to range from 90 to over 110 weapons.
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Like India Pakistan is not a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nor signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
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As in most nuclear weapon states Pakistani governments have sought to create a positive image of the nuclear weapons program (particularly missile launches often by linking it to national pride and national identity.
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There is little public information about the storage and
deployment of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons (but much publically derived or
acquired satellite imagery). As many of Pakistan's missiles are believed to be transported in non-military, commercial looking covered trucks (hiding TEL) non-state observers would have trouble keeping track .-
Like India Pakistan is not a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nor signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
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As in most nuclear weapon states Pakistani governments have sought to create a positive image of the nuclear weapons program (particularly missile launches often by linking it to national pride and national identity.
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There is also no official information on Pakistan’s
fissile material production
sites—although Pakistan and India each year exchange lists of nuclear
facilities as part of their 1988 Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against
Nuclear Installations and Facilities. though see
http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/construction-progressing-rapidly-on-the-fourth-heavy-water-reactor-at-the-k/12#images
and overall see http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/imagery/category/pakistan/
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Pakistan’s nuclear
weapons are widely seen as a response to India’s nuclear weapons and its larger
conventional military forces, and the experience of wars in 1947, 1965, 1971,
and 1999. Pakistani fears of Indian hegemony have increased in recent years as
India’s economy has started to grow at a much faster rate than Pakistan’s and
as India has increased its already much larger military budget at a much faster
rate.
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A longer-term
concern now driving Pakistan’s nuclear programme is the United States’ policy
of countering the rise of China as a potential great power competitor by
cultivating a much stronger US strategic relationship with India. This latter
concern may tie the future of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and those of India,
to the emerging contest between the United States and China.-
Pete
I am sure you have read this.
ReplyDeleteJust for records:
http://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&id=2067#pr_link2067
Thanks RAJ47
ReplyDeleteWith http://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&id=2067#pr_link2067 including the info:
"While welcoming the Chief Guest, Vice Admiral Tanveer Faiz, Commander Naval Strategic Force Command highlighted that HQ NSFC will perform a pivotal role in development and employment of the Naval Strategic Force. The Force, which is the custodian of the nation�s 2nd strike capability, will strengthen Pakistan�s policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence and ensure regional stability."
It sounds like Pakistani naval nuclear weapons - with "second strike" suggesting Pakistani submarine launched missiles (cruise?) ie SLCMs.
Pete