tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post8904000852813212515..comments2024-03-28T19:53:20.694+11:00Comments on Submarine Matters & Australian Nuclear Weapons: The Saudis May Eventually Buy DCNS Scorpene Submarines.Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-8691328765808136902017-03-15T11:39:06.926+11:002017-03-15T11:39:06.926+11:00PAKISTAN SENDING A WHOLE BRIGADE TO SAUDI ARABIA
...PAKISTAN SENDING A WHOLE BRIGADE TO SAUDI ARABIA<br /><br />In this comments thread at 11/3/17 4:07 PM I underestimated when I said "Saudi have quietly hired whole battalions of Pakistani infantry (as units) over the years"<br /><br />It is now revealed in the Hindustan Times, March 14, 2017 http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-to-deploy-army-brigade-in-saudi-arabia-reports/story-3PSDzYLttsdOI1VYPUjnmJ.html<br /><br />"Pakistan to deploy army brigade in Saudi Arabia: Reports" <br />"The Pakistan Army will send a brigade of combat troops to Saudi Arabia to strengthen defences along the kingdom’s vulnerable southern border in the face of threats from the Islamic State and Houthi rebels, according to media reports...in response to a request from Riyadh, which “wants the troops as an emergency response force”.<br /><br />"...The brigade will be based in southern Saudi Arabia and will be deployed inside its borders to thwart possible attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels,"<br /><br />"A brigade in the Pakistan Army comprises about 3,000 troops. Pakistani troops train and advise Saudi military personnel and sources told Hindustan Times that about 2,000 Pakistani officers and soldiers are currently in the kingdom...'<br /><br />"...Sources in Islamabad said Pakistan was apparently being sucked into the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen..."<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-43489749709209167642017-03-15T05:49:39.125+11:002017-03-15T05:49:39.125+11:00@Pete
I have no faith in the KSA being able to fi...@Pete<br /><br />I have no faith in the KSA being able to field a technically competant submarine force and I would love to see them waste their money trying. However I suspect the their new financial reality will force them to focus their increased defense spending largely on aerospace products directed at, or as defense from, Iran. The Iranians only need Kilos because they anticipate having to tangle with the USN; KSA has no such problems. If the KSA wants to close the gulf to the Iranians, air or ballistic missile launches at the oil terminals would be sufficient.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />JoshJoshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-54556172324663498432017-03-15T03:40:23.636+11:002017-03-15T03:40:23.636+11:00KSA demonstrated abysmal fighting abilities in Yem...KSA demonstrated abysmal fighting abilities in Yemen. I would fix that before buying subs.<br />KQNAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-2054411144331876342017-03-14T11:35:04.675+11:002017-03-14T11:35:04.675+11:00Hi Josh [14/3/17 12:27 AM]
Thanks for https://www...Hi Josh [14/3/17 12:27 AM]<br /><br />Thanks for https://www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss/2016/08/30/saudi-arabia-burns-through-foreign-reserves-as-oil-prices-slide/#3915f70839a5 . It seems Iranian and US oil/gas producing competition are bad news for the Saudi oil industry due to barrel price drops - good for we consumers.<br /><br />Whether this has any impact on a Saudi 5+ year submarine buying process remains unanswered, noting https://www.dawn.com/news/1303871 of 22 Dec 2016:<br /><br />"Saudi Arabia, at war in Yemen and competing for regional influence with arch-rival Iran, projects a 6.7 per cent rise in defence spending in 2017 to 191 billion riyals ($50.8 billion), according to official budget figures released on Thursday."<br /><br />Particularly pertinent is:<br /><br />"...Riyadh is expected to continue buying billions of dollars worth of weapons, mainly from Western suppliers such as the United States, Britain and France, for its land, sea and air forces in coming years."<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-9225751299123284332017-03-14T00:27:52.424+11:002017-03-14T00:27:52.424+11:00@Pete
The KSA has huge financial reserves, but li...@Pete<br /><br />The KSA has huge financial reserves, but like China, is burning them at a prestigious rate over the last two years. Cheap oil is breaking them and cheap isn't going away - anytime the price gets above $50 US shale output increases. Rigs are currently going up in the US just on the current price; $60 a barrel would cause US output to jump until the price went back down to $55. That's why oil is now in such a narrow window price wise, and this is *only* maintained because of the OPEC output cuts. Were that deal to no be renewed or otherwise faulter, oil prices drop even further. The KSA may make noises like it wants a sub fleet but it will never actually buy; that ship has sailed.<br /><br />https://www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss/2016/08/30/saudi-arabia-burns-through-foreign-reserves-as-oil-prices-slide/#3915f70839a5<br /><br />Cheers,<br />JoshJoshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-14142305560208323602017-03-12T13:03:01.378+11:002017-03-12T13:03:01.378+11:00Hi Anonymous [at 12/3/17 12:39 PM]
1. Certainly i...Hi Anonymous [at 12/3/17 12:39 PM]<br /><br />1. Certainly it is desirable that Israel has a nuclear deterrent triad including nuclear missile armed subs. Israel's nuclear weapons are, of course, illegal under the WWII Great Power victors, legal nuclear weapons status, NNP Treaty.<br /><br />Arab/Iranian/Islamic nuclear encirclement may occur over the next few decades. Also illegally nuclear armed Pakistan may well have extended a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia for decades. <br /><br />Germany rightly supplies submarines at low prices to Israel as one aspect of post Holocaust apologies. Corruption in the arms business is frequent - Japan may need to play the game.<br /><br />I understand Israel retrofits specifically nuclear capabilities (including "Popeye Turbo" (Israeli Tomahawk) combat systems) to the Dolphin 1s, 2s and, in future, Dolphin 3s.<br /><br />2. I don't think Trump's US will go to nuclear war in protection of Japan. I think Japan should one day reveal a nuclear arsenal or continue to trust the non-existent sanity of nuclear weapon state North Korea.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-50486904334316655692017-03-12T12:39:28.920+11:002017-03-12T12:39:28.920+11:00Hi Pete
German submaine scandal includes implicit...Hi Pete<br /><br />German submaine scandal includes implicit violation of The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) by Germany [1].<br /><br />[1] http://thebulletin.org/real-german-submarine-scandal10358<br />(“The real German submarine scandal” by Victor Gilinsky, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan/4/2017)<br /><br />Israel is absorbed with a “submarine scandal” that centers on improprieties in the award of a billion-dollar contract under which Israel would acquire three new advanced German submarines.<br /><br />But the real scandal is that Germany supplies the submarines at all, and does so through a loophole in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Everyone who pays attention to the subject understands that the submarines are built to carry long-range Israeli cruise missiles armed with nuclear weapons.<br />The German newsmagazine Der Spiegel laid out the details in a six-part 2012 series. The missiles’ range is about 1,500 kilometers, which brings Tehran within reach from the Mediterranean. As if to erase any doubts, in greeting the arrival of the latest submarine, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it would be equipped with “advanced” Israeli systems that would be “used first and foremost to deter our enemies who strive to extinguish us. They must know that Israel is capable of hitting back hard against anyone who seeks to hurt us." German government claims that they know nothing about the submarines’ nuclear role are more than a little ridiculous.<br /><br /><br />Regards<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-56911701673655338802017-03-11T16:07:36.628+11:002017-03-11T16:07:36.628+11:00Hi Josh
I don't precisely know the Saudi'...Hi Josh<br /><br />I don't precisely know the Saudi's financial position but suspect they have enormous savings in US Treasury Bonds, US$?, maybe gold. Subs are also a longterm purchase item with submarine sellers likely confident oil prices will rise one day to make the Saudis financially liquid again.<br /><br />Notice that even as recently as 2015 the Saudis were the third highest defence spenders worldwide. That is more than Russia (even building-buying nuclear subs!), India, France, UK etc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures . <br /><br />So the Saudis would likely have the money. What they do with what they buy is another question.<br /><br />I agree the Saudis have a culture unsuited to operating subs or even unable to beat such low defence spending countries as Iran or Iraq.<br /><br />Seems that most of Saudis' weapon purchases are a reciprocal foreign exchange matter, often concerning countries they sell oil to, rather than a weapons for military unit capabilities. Many complex weapons in Saudi hands seem underused and even remain crated, unused then put in warehouses.<br /><br />So yes unless the Saudis hired contractors on a large scale (ideally serious experienced submariners, like Pakistanis) the Saudis couldn't efficiently operate subs.<br /><br />This is noting that the Saudi have quietly hired whole battalions of Pakistani infantry (as units) over the years to actually defend the country and/or Royal family. <br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-88878795596916569712017-03-11T15:43:41.104+11:002017-03-11T15:43:41.104+11:00Hi MHalblaub
Indeed Israel would not like potenti...Hi MHalblaub<br /><br />Indeed Israel would not like potential strategic competitor Saudi Arabia to have AIP and Tomahawk/Babur equipped 210s or 214s. Even 209s (and any other sub) with torpedo tubes could accommodate nuclear tipped Tomahawks/Baburs. Israel is so small that even nuclear Exocet/Harpoon land attack missiles could wipe out most of the population... :(<br /><br />The Saudis whould probably need to hire Pakistani allies to skillfully use Saudi subs. <br /><br />The size of single hull Saudi subs would be a bit excessive if the Saudis wanted to exceed the size of Iranian double hulled Kilo subs (2,300 tons (surfaced) and 3,950 tons (submerged)).<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-22031395236765534262017-03-11T15:30:19.851+11:002017-03-11T15:30:19.851+11:00Hi Anonymous
Yep DCNS is full of people who know ...Hi Anonymous<br /><br />Yep DCNS is full of people who know even more about the full spectrum of subs (SSKs, SSNs and SSBNs) than the full spectrum Russians, Chinese and Indians.<br /><br />DCNS's main weakness is demonstrating proof that it has an advanced AIP system, like its Western/Nordic European competitors. <br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-45396927378791360302017-03-11T01:37:19.666+11:002017-03-11T01:37:19.666+11:00@Pete
I doubt that KSA will have the money to buy...@Pete<br /><br />I doubt that KSA will have the money to buy new toys given the price of oil is stubbornly staying inside a $5 band even with the OPEC cuts. They're defense spending is already through the roof fighting in Yemen and bolstering their defenses against Iran; a huge billion dollar program to aquire a capability they've never dealt with I don't think is on the cards at this point. Maybe a several years ago when oil was triple digits. More over as a culture they lack the sophistication to operate such a platform in my opinion. Were they to buy SSKs they would just sit dock side.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />JoshJoshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-65192157110091999962017-03-10T22:56:25.462+11:002017-03-10T22:56:25.462+11:00Hi Pete
His Majesty, the King of Saudi Arabia is ...Hi Pete<br /><br />His Majesty, the King of Saudi Arabia is going to vistit Japan from Mar/12 with 1500 people including all of cabinet members by 40 jets! 1200 suite rooms of luxury hotels in Tokyo are reserved. Luxury taxies in regions other than Tokyo are calling, because those in Tokyo can not satisfy demand. In Saudi Arabia, as his Majesty is government, when his Majesty moves, government members of Saudi Arabia moves.<br /><br />If DCN offers submarine with gold toilet, Saudi Arabia will pay. <br /><br />Regards<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-1866962221793572472017-03-10T22:24:59.540+11:002017-03-10T22:24:59.540+11:00Dear Pete,
I would estimate Israel will not be pl...Dear Pete,<br /><br />I would estimate Israel will not be pleased in case Germany would sell latest submarine technology to Saudi Arabia. Egypt did or will only receive Type 209 submarines. <br /><br />For sallow coastal waters a Type 210 would be nice. I guess for prestige the Saudi submarines have to be bigger than Iranian ones...<br /><br />Regards,<br />MHalblaubMHalblaubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14234020711635190127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-9524408742492557452017-03-10T19:14:34.181+11:002017-03-10T19:14:34.181+11:00
Pete
Saudi Arabia is very wealth country and pay...<br />Pete<br /><br />Saudi Arabia is very wealth country and pays as promisted. Though German submarine seems to be better than French convesional submarine, DCN won in business with wealthy countries such as AUS and Saudi. DCN is a magician of business.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com