tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post2999702783981843776..comments2024-03-30T00:14:23.992+11:00Comments on Submarine Matters & Australian Nuclear Weapons: Thailand Puzzling Whether to Buy Chinese SubmarinesPete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-13490835088556496062015-07-21T15:05:48.895+10:002015-07-21T15:05:48.895+10:00Hi MHalblaub [July 20, 2015 at 8:12 PM]
True Chin...Hi MHalblaub [July 20, 2015 at 8:12 PM]<br /><br />True China has no submarine experience and China hasn't won a sea battle against Japan or European countries since before the Opium Wars 1839.<br /><br />Also Russia (shipyard in Ukraine) has never used or won with aircraft carriers - even though it sold one each to India and China.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />Pete<br /><br />Petehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-64981300429745489912015-07-21T14:58:28.944+10:002015-07-21T14:58:28.944+10:00Hi Nicky
Kilos are too large and probably more ex...Hi Nicky<br /><br />Kilos are too large and probably more expensive - Kilos weigh more tonnes.<br /><br />http://www.thanhniennews.com/society/vietnams-2nd-russianmade-sub-completes-sea-trials-1963.html Vietnam charged US$2 billion to buy six Kilo-class...in December 2009. <br /><br />S0 US$333 million per Kilo 6 years ago - probably more like US$400 million per Kilo now. <br /><br />Two German 1,000 tonne (surfaced) Type 201mods the best buy for Thai.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-86265982207844071652015-07-20T20:12:17.107+10:002015-07-20T20:12:17.107+10:00There is another reason against China. China has n...There is another reason against China. China has no experience with a real submarine war like Russia or Germany.<br /><br />Surfacing a submarine in the middle of a carrier group is one thing. Another thing is to sink the ships and get away with it.MHalblaubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14234020711635190127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-28553145147567710302015-07-20T03:59:41.140+10:002015-07-20T03:59:41.140+10:00Hi Pete,
When it comes to cost, I think the Improv...Hi Pete,<br />When it comes to cost, I think the Improved Kilo class SSK is much more attractive for Thailand. Look at how much the going cost for an improved kilo class SSK. At $200 to 250 million dollars each, they could have gotten 2 to 3 kilo's with transfer of technology as well.<br /><br />Though if Thailand went for Germany, I would think the Type 209 would be one option and the other would be the Type 214, which comes in at $330 Million dollars each. The other option would be South Korea's Chang Bogo class Submarines or buy Type 214's from South Korea.<br /><br />Either way, I think China should have been their last resort and should have made a pitch for Russian or German SSK's.Nickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318590507921043958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-68770539784656358492015-07-19T20:08:43.080+10:002015-07-19T20:08:43.080+10:00Hi Nicky [at July 19, 2015 at 6:03 AM]
I think T...Hi Nicky [at July 19, 2015 at 6:03 AM] <br /><br />I think Thailand should avoid buying Chinese or Russian subs because political influence from those countries would come with overly cheap prices. Low prices also wouldn't buy AIP development for any Amyr/Ladas.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-1786661181754131832015-07-19T20:03:58.981+10:002015-07-19T20:03:58.981+10:00Hi MHalblaub
Yes A-20/A-26T presents some buyer ...Hi MHalblaub <br /><br />Yes A-20/A-26T presents some buyer risks. <br /><br />Don't know if China would translate the Yuan Users Manual into English. <br /><br />German 210s or German or South Korean 209s might win after all.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-65287596901426177562015-07-19T19:57:50.392+10:002015-07-19T19:57:50.392+10:00Hi Anonymous [at July 19, 2015 at 12:14 AM]
Yes t...Hi Anonymous [at July 19, 2015 at 12:14 AM]<br /><br />Yes the lack of a A-20 or A-26T in existance does present a risk to the possible first (Thai) customers. The Chinese price is so low and terms so generous that China may build Thailand subs that have some low end Romeo/Ming (Type 033) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romeo-class_submarine#Chinese_Type_033_Romeo-class_and_its_variants features and perhaps fewer higher end Yuan features.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-31227691390613548282015-07-19T06:03:27.757+10:002015-07-19T06:03:27.757+10:00If Thailand is really concerned about cost, I woul...If Thailand is really concerned about cost, I would think the Type 210(Mod), Type 209 or even the improved Kilo class SSK or Amur/Lada class SSK would be one option.Nickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318590507921043958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-24880707807002534092015-07-19T01:04:43.250+10:002015-07-19T01:04:43.250+10:00Vaporware submarine, sounds like Collins-class.
...Vaporware submarine, sounds like Collins-class. <br /><br />The Collins-class still proviedes kickbacks called ASC employment.<br /><br />Can someone imagine a Chinese operation manual first translated to English and then to Thai?MHalblaubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14234020711635190127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-54227025306547231512015-07-19T00:14:05.759+10:002015-07-19T00:14:05.759+10:00Too much vaporware,if not all vaporware, a very ri...Too much vaporware,if not all vaporware, a very risky bet on a 1st in a new class? Would not want to hand one's admiral career (or many careers) on such a "written all over" fiasco, regardless of kickbacksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-23475843262149595362015-07-17T22:34:03.353+10:002015-07-17T22:34:03.353+10:00HI Pete,
That's why I think were seeing some h...HI Pete,<br />That's why I think were seeing some hesitation from Thailand on China's Deal.Nickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318590507921043958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-12628119113241619102015-07-17T21:03:09.525+10:002015-07-17T21:03:09.525+10:00Hi Nicky
Re "How much is the Yuan class Subm...Hi Nicky<br /><br />Re "How much is the Yuan class Submarine?"<br /><br />Many reasons why there is no answer.<br /><br />The domestic costs of China building a Yuan for itself are basically unquantifiable even if the NSA and CIA had a lot of data. There are many sunk develpment and program costs that distort unit prices.<br /><br />No Yuan for a foreign customer has been built (to my knowledge) and no Yuan has been sold overseas - so no-one knows - not even Chinese defence accountants.<br /><br />The are no standard prices for submarine customers because every customer has different needs, specs, currencies and different risks and political benefits. "Off-the-shelf" doesn't really exist.<br /><br />China is notionally charging US$335 million per Yuan, A-20 or A-26T (with extra-generous terms of training and 8 years support and spare parts). The not yet existing subs being offered to Thailand may be sufficiently different from a Chinese Yuan not to be a Yuan. If China were selling to less politically favoured countries, all with different requirements/specs China would charge different prices.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-11297869433297661182015-07-17T03:18:03.858+10:002015-07-17T03:18:03.858+10:00Hi Pete,
I suspect that Thailand maybe looking for...Hi Pete,<br />I suspect that Thailand maybe looking for something cheaper and more reliable. I think after seeing Vietnam buy improved Kilo class SSK's and seeing the price tag. I suspect Thailand wants Kilo class SSK's or they are trying to find away to get South Korean submarines. I just have to wonder, How much is the Yuan class Submarine?Nickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318590507921043958noreply@blogger.com