China's carrier evolution (Artwork courtesy Feng Qingyin via an interesting article
at China's Global Times)
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China is launching ever more capable aircraft carriers at a pace every 6 years.
This is usually only seen prior to and during major wars. Types and years include:
Type 001 Liaoning (and see) was re-launched around 2010.
Type 002 Shandong was launched in 2017.
Type 003 Fujian was launched June 17, 2022,
and
Type 004 ("Hainan"?) nuclear powered carrier, maybe by 2028 .
Fujian is China’s first Catapult Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR) technology carrier.
What’s more Fujian is to use the advanced Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) catapult and recovery system. EMALS, first used on USS Ford, initially caused trouble on USS Ford. China may have parallel developed
EMALS for Fujian in combination with intelligence collection from the US EMALS program.
Early estimates were that
Fujian’s maximum displacement was around 80,000 tonnes. But later estimates are up
to 100,000 tonnes like USS Ford.
Fujian's large flight deck and catapult system permit a wider choice of carrier aircraft than the 001's and 002's “ski-jumps” which "roll off" Flanker style J-15s.
Catapults permit launch of:
- Chinese propeller driven KJ-600 AEW&C.
The KJ-600 airframe may also serve as a basis for:
- an anti-submarine warfare aircraft,
- carrier jet refueling aircraft, and
- shore-ship delivery aircraft.
In the future Type 003 carriers could launch:
- mid-size stealth FC-31 carrier variants. Wiki reports on October 29, 2021, a modified FC-31 dubbed J-35, made its maiden flight.[37] and see [38]
- large stealth aircraft J-20. Wiki reports: "The J-20 would likely be commissioned upon the Type 003 aircraft carrier under construction, however, the length of the J-20 means that [the J-20] has to be shortened to be considered operable on an aircraft carrier.[137]"
TASKING
Potential tasks of Chinese Type 003 carriers are many, including:
- Chinese SSBN bastion extension out from the first island chain. That chain has been an obstacle to these SSBN's safe freedom of movement into the broader Pacific Ocean.
- operating east of Taiwan - working with surface escorts and submarines to blockade Taiwan and perhaps useful for Taiwan's eventual invasion.
- power projection with escort surface ships and SSNs in the South China Sea and broader Indo-Pacific, and
- showing the flag boosting the "Prestige of Xi Jinping and China" in the Indo-Pacific (especially island nations from the Solomons to Sri Lanka). Then there could be longer voyages into the Atlantic visiting Latin American (eg. Cuba, Venezuela), European and Russian ports. “Show the flag” was subsequently confirmed by US Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery.
Following Teddy Roosevelt's Great White Fleet (that did a world tour in 1907-1909) we now have Xi's Great Red Fleet centered around carriers (which may do a similar tour).
Check out the stirring video here and below from the good Volk at Global Times about how China was inspired by the USN. Besides the US China is the only other nation with true Super Carriers.
2 comments:
Thanks Pete. The development of the KJ600 carrier borne AEW plane is surely an indication China intends the Type 003 carriers for distant operations in the Pacific and Indian oceans. Why would they bother if they were only meant for operations in the East China and South China Seas?
Appreciating all the issues Australia is having with an SSN program, and the recent agreement to start RAN officers on the ten year pathway to be qualified to operate a US designed SSN, the PLAN will still face some issues with developing the crews, especially officers, skilled to operate such complex vessels. They may have the industrial capacity to churn them out faster than anyone else. But crew experience takes time. That being said, at the current rate of progress, by 2030 the PLAN will be very potent.
In my view this is why the SSN program is more important for the RAN than the AWD or Hunter frigate program. The former might be able to stop a Chinese task force. The latter will be far too heavily outnumbered.
Hi Anonymous [at Jun 28, 2022, 9:13:00 AM]
Yes re your first para:
We overwhelmingly concur. In the article I wrote Chinese Type 003 carriers:
"- power projection...and broader Indo-Pacific, and
- showing the flag boosting the "Prestige of Xi Jinping and China" in the Indo-Pacific (especially island nations from the Solomons to Sri Lanka). Then there could be longer voyages into the Atlantic visiting Latin American (eg. Cuba, Venezuela), European and Russian ports."
Your second para:
- If Australia boosts its nuclear trainee program, of all types, from 2 to 200 per year it might almost have whats needed by 2040
- indeed China's CCP might need to avoid overly micro-managing distant carrier and nuke sub operations. The CCP's Military Commission structure may well see naval commander initiative as a threat. This may impede submarine crew functioning out to the 2030s.
Your third para:
There is a risk the US and UK may not be as helpful for AUKUS sub as Australia hopes. So given the SSN program risk we shouldn't hinder complementary weapons systems like the Hunter frigate program, long range hypersonic missiles
and I would add an ORCA ASW and anti-ship intel gathering and mine laying capability.
Regards Pete
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