May 27, 2022

QUAD Issues Expanding at Tokyo Summit, May 2022.

Gessler has written interesting perspectives on the May 24, 2022, QUAD Tokyo Summit.   

Regarding the part about Chinese illegal fishing, it appears that the QUAD has begun to take some concrete steps to tackle this problem. While the media headlines were grabbed by larger initiatives like the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the QUAD's recently concluded summit in Tokyo included the launch of several initiatives which seem to have not grabbed as many eyeballs:

Drawing on the Fact Sheet: Quad Leaders’ Tokyo Summit 2022, May 23, 2022 at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/23/fact-sheet-quad-leaders-tokyo-summit-2022/

Concerning the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA):

"...This initiative will transform the ability of partners in the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean Region to fully monitor the waters on their shores and, in turn, to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific. Quad countries are committed to contributing to the region’s maritime domain awareness—a fundamental requirement for peace, stability, and prosperity—through an investment in IPMDA over five years." 

"...IPMDA will build a faster, wider, and more accurate maritime picture of near-real-time activities in partners’ waters. This common operating picture will integrate three critical regions—the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean Region—in the Indo-Pacific. The benefits of this picture are vast: it will allow tracking of “dark shipping” and other tactical-level activities, such as rendezvous at sea, as well as improve partners’ ability to respond to climate and humanitarian events and to protect their fisheries, which are vital to many Indo-Pacific economies."

Details regarding how they plan to do this are contained in the Fact Sheet above.

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From the  Quad Joint Leaders’ Statement, May 24, 2022: at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/24/quad-joint-leaders-statement/ 

Also, the beginnings of a "Counter-Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)" initiative appear to be taking root, finally:

"We are committed to working closely with partners and the region to drive public and private investment to bridge gaps. To achieve this, Quad will seek to extend more than 50 billion USD of infrastructure assistance and investment in the Indo-Pacific, over the next five years."

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Gessler Comments

I'd imagine most of the 50 billion USD would be aimed at dissuading South East Asian nations from Chinese debt-trap loans under BRI. However I would also think the Pacific Islands would also become a priority. As it is already among the 3 critical regions (Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean Region) identified for the IPMDA. 

The job of countering China cannot be a simple matter of building military capabilities, while that is important, its also important to appreciate that China [has a much larger economy than] Russia. China’s CCP is capable of bringing tremendous economic leverage to the table which can have the effect of tilting the balance in their favour in many regions without ever firing a shot. A multi-domain approach is necessary to counter this.

Pete Comment

QUAD members need to be conscious that the new acronyms they’re generating may lose traction. The QUAD should not lose its way by degenerating into a too-many-countries-covered, under too many topics, like the past APEC Talkfest.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

This seems a very sensible response to the Chinese plan. The risk of China's fishing fleet moving into Pacific Island countries to satisfy its insatiable demand for fish is surely a card for the Quad to play. Looks like it has worked on 10 out of 12 nations.

However it looks like we are too late on both Solomons and Samoa. The Guardian reports former FM Marise Payne took a submission to the Morrison Cabinet to increase the Pacific Aid budget but it was knocked back. Appalling. This was a failure to act, not an intelligence failure.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/28/samoa-signs-china-bilateral-agreement-during-pacific-push-by-beijing

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous [at May 28, 2022, 6:02:00 PM]

I don't think Australia, even with an increased aid to Pacific Islands (and East Timor) budget could

1. equal the bidding war of infrastructure and training cash the world's 2nd largest economy, China, can wage

and

2. our aid money can't be so blatantly "Commissions" ie. Bribes-for-Leaders, in the Chinese tradition. The Aus press would jump on such siphoning off of Aus aid money. The Beijing government controlled Chinese press is not permitted to question such siphoning of Chinese aid.

Regards Pete

Anonymous said...

Pete

I agree. This is why I suggested emphasising aspects of Australia's aid like fisheries protection, which affects many PI islanders livelihoods, is a more sound approach.

Also this reinforces the need for Australia to go back to using media like Radio Australia to promote its case. This allows Australia to reach the Pacific Island nations' populations, not just elites.

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous [at May 30, 2022, 10:19:00 AM]

Yes bringing back Radio Australia to cover the Pacific again would be a doable, inexpensive, move.

Good that https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2022/05/31/2003779061 :

"Ten Pacific island nations yesterday rebuffed China’s push for a wide-ranging regional security pact, amid worries that the proposal was designed to pull them into Beijing’s orbit."

Long may that situation continue. Although Chinese Ambassadors are still tring to persuade PI leaders and East Timor. ET likes to group itself with PIs and ASEAN.

Regards Pete