It's been a very interesting 24 hours in Australian politics.
1. The Australian Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, has won the May 21, 2022, Federal Election. The current Morrison Coalition government has already conceded defeat.
On ongoing vote counting Labor has won 73 seats in the more important House of Representatives. 76 seats are needed for Labor to govern outright. Labor may well achieve that 76 magic number.
The most pro-Labor and powerful "minor party" crossbench grouping are the anti-nuclear Greens with 3 seats (so far).
If Labor needs to form an alliance with the Greens to govern then things could get interesting. This is concerning Labor's current pro AUKUS nuclear submarine policy, contained here "We will also support new arrangements, such as AUKUS".
If the Greens tried to block pro-nuclear submarine legislation in the House of Representatives, and/or in the Senate, then it is likely Coalition members would cross the floor to reinforce Labor's vote into an absolute majority. However such a Coalition action is not guaranteed.
If Labor gets to the 76 seats majority by itself, then the possibility of Greens blocking the nuclear submarines policy is moot.
On the changing vote/seats counts and with useful hyperlinks this one site
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Australian_federal_election is
pretty accurate and up to the minute.
2. Labor's view of relations with China, and Russia/Ukraine is the same as the Coalition's which is the same as the US/NATO policies. So Labor has a policy that China should abide be the international territorial laws (including China NOT invading Taiwan) and Russia should get out of Ukraine. Australia is supporting and enacting NATO's economic sanctions against Russia and Australia has been sending weapons to Ukraine's army.
7 comments:
Pete
Thanks. As they say, we live in interesting times.
In the Lower House the attitude of the Teals to AUKUS and national security is also relevant. There are already 6+ “teal” independents confirmed to have won their seats, so they will actually outnumber Greens in the lower house. This is significant because, being mainly rebelling potential moderate Liberals, their views on national security are much closer to Labor and Liberals.
For example, Allegra Spender, who won former PM Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, has a policy page including policy on national security. She specifically supports AUKUS. So even if Labor is short of a lower house majority, there are already enough teal candidates to get AUKUS approved.
https://www.allegraspender.com.au/more_policy_positions
After checking the teal candidates I am much more optimistic AUKUS will be delivered by Labor. They will not need Green votes to pass an AUKUS budget.
Pete
One more skightly cynical and selfish comment on the politics. Labor now holds all but one of the Federal seats in Adelaide. If it wins Sturt it has all of them. The State government is also Labor, which before was problematic but may now be beneficial. Both the Labor premier and Labor PM have policies to promote local manufacturing. Politically it will now be very hard for a federal Labor government to walk away from building SSNs in Adelaide.
Against this, the prospect of a quick build of the first one or two hulls in USA or UK is probably remote now.
Hi Anonymous [at May 22, 2022, 9:16:00 PM]
That's comforting for the AUKUS submarine future that some Teals would vote with Labor for AUKUS subs. For your example Allegra Spender
by using https://www.allegraspender.com.au/more_policy_positions you've provided
then clicking on "National Security and Defence"
this indeed brings up "I support developing Australia’s international relationships and agreements including ANZUS, AUKUS, and our participation in The Quad."
Not needing Green votes to pass the Defence Budget - which will include AUKUS subs, missiles and UUVs - is good news.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous [at May 22, 2022, 9:30:00 PM]
It seems the Liberals (James Stevens) has won Sturt by a wisker https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-190.htm
But your comments still hold "Labor now holds all but one of the Federal seats in Adelaide..The State government is also Labor... Politically it will now be very hard for a federal Labor government to walk away from building SSNs in Adelaide."
All pointing to Labor's need to build most or all of the AUKUS subs in Adelaide South Australia.
MOST of the AUKUS subs could come by way of:
A. perhaps the first 1 or 2 subs could be built in the UK or US to ensure Australia has 1 or 2 SSNs before 2040.
and/or
B. the reactors will always need to be built in the UK or US
and/or
C. the whole stern "propulsion half" of the SSNs might need to be built in the UK or US.
Labor's win will probably mean the Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforces Report that will include Build Issues https://www.defence.gov.au/about/taskforces/nuclear-powered-submarine-task-force
that was meant to come out by March 2023 under a Coalition Government, will most likely be delayed to June 2023 while the incoming Labor Government gets across the issues.
Regards
Pete
I remember Rudd’s bad diplomacy.
Hi Pete,
The article links to the report but parts is blacked out.
Navy investigation finds submarine crash in South China Sea was 'preventable'
"The navigation review team, which includes the commanding officer, failed to find and mark at least 10 underwater hazards near the location of the grounding, the investigation found, and the team incorrectly concluded the submarine would be operating in an open area. The submarine also suffered from "low standards" because the ship's leadership didn't hold sailors accountable for navigation errors or deficiencies.
The investigation also revealed a previous accident on the USS Connecticut. In April 2021, the submarine collided with a pier at Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego. At the time, an investigation found "degraded standards" in navigation, planning and seamanship, but the accident was written off as "an anomalous performance and not systemic failure.""
/Kjell
Thanks /Kjell [at May 24, 2022, 10:33:00 PM]
For "Navy investigation finds submarine crash in South China Sea was 'preventable'" at https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/uss-connecticut-investigation/index.html,
which links to 67 page heavily blacked out report at https://www.cpf.navy.mil/Portals/52/Downloads/FOIA-Reading-Room/2022/uss-connecticut-01-command-investigation.pdf?ver=rw0qss5nLD2f0RBoLaP0xw%3d%3d
all seems as expected, including paragraph 16. "16. (U) CONNECTICUT will be unavailable for operations for an extended period of time due to damage sustained during the
grounding."
So its likely USS Connecticut, one of the USN's extremely expensive Seawolf class will likely be out of action for well over 12 months.
Regards Pete
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