January 14, 2021

US Strategic Framework Indo-Pacific: Russia our Friend?

Here is a newly (days ago?) declassified SECRET/"NOFORN" (ie. US Eyes Only) document titled "A Free and Open Indo-Pacific". It is a US national security briefing prepared by White House staff. 

The document contains a Cover Letter and US National Security Council further action description that were missing when the "US Strategic Framework..." 000174 Attachment was released by the White House on January 5, 2021. The Cover Letter refers to some documents that may be still classified, such as "U.S. Campaign Plan for Countering China’s Malign Influence in International Organizations." Much in the Attachment is worth discussing.

The White House released the whole document on January 13, 2021 to Australia's ABC "7.30 Report". The US aim may be mainly to show Trump/the White House did have a working Indo-Pacific alliance strategy after all. 

Reading the document reveals the alliance objective is mainly to contain China. 

Russia is America's greatest nuclear opponent in the Indo-Pacific, with a nuclear capability vastly larger than China's and North Korea's put together. This includes Russia's Pacific Fleet SSBNs, other SSBNs on call, central Russia based ICBMs and nuclear bombers that threaten the US mainland. Yet the only mention of Russia in the document is: “Russia will remain a marginal player in the Indo-Pacific region relative to the United States, China, and India." Trump's personal relations with Putin have possibly downgraded strategic reality.

India, Japan, Australia, North and South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines and Thailand are all mentioned in this document. It is useful to use the search function in it - to identify country mentions.

Here is an Australian ABC News summary of the document.

An excellent account from the Australian perspective by Joshua Mcdonald at The Diplomat (paysite).

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