On July 4, 2020
the seat of Eden-Monaro in NSW, Australia, had a
By-Election due to the resignation of the sitting Labor Member, Mike
Kelly. Eden-Monaro (E-M) is a key electoral seat/district in Australia. Up to the 2016 election,
E-M was long regarded as Australia's most well-known "bellwether
seat". From the 1972 election until
the 2013 election, E-M was won by the party that also won the overall Federal
Election for the whole of Australia.
SUMMARY
The main takeaways are that the Labor Party won E-M on July 4, 2020, by a decreased (two party preferred (TPP)) majority. But Labor only won on preferences - most significantly from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP). The main reason for that is SFFP voters being dissatisfied with Liberal-National Coalition Government's poor bushfire performance – especially that of Prime Minister Scott Morrison who was on a Hawaiin holiday when E-M was hardest hit by bushfires in December 2019 to February 2020.
The main takeaways are that the Labor Party won E-M on July 4, 2020, by a decreased (two party preferred (TPP)) majority. But Labor only won on preferences - most significantly from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP). The main reason for that is SFFP voters being dissatisfied with Liberal-National Coalition Government's poor bushfire performance – especially that of Prime Minister Scott Morrison who was on a Hawaiin holiday when E-M was hardest hit by bushfires in December 2019 to February 2020.
IN DETAIL
It is also not surprising Labor won
because in this situation because to lose would have been a 1 in 100 year event. Put another way if the Liberals won it would have been the first Federal Government win against a Labor held seat candidate, in a by-election, for more than 100 years.
- Labor only won due to
preferences. Most significantly from the SFFP (see "burning to the ground") which gained 5.35% of the First Preference Vote. The Liberals would have won if
they negotiated the usual preference deal with SFFP. A significant number of
SFFP voters were likely burned out, or very threatened, by the bushfires, while Morrison denied federal government resources could help "I
don't hold a hose, mate, and I don't sit in a control room," (said Morrison while in Hawaii).
- Labor won with 2,334 FEWER First Preference votes than the Liberals in an overall swing of 3.29% fewer First Preference votes for Labor.
- Labor won on a margin of less
than 1% (ie. by only 0.38% or 723 of Two Party (or Candidate) Preferred votes). This represents a poorer showing for Labor compared to its E-M win in 2019 which was by a larger margin, of 0.85%.
- The Liberal Party candidate, Fiona Kotvojs, speaks/presents
well. However, she needed more media airtime to display that during the campaign, with airtime/rallies reduced by COVID-19 social distancing requirements.
It all seems a case, in E-M, of Labor drifting more to the centre-right (with virtually no union concerns in E-M other than some light union activity by nurses). Meanwhile the Morrison Coalition Government is drifting to a COVID stimulus centre-left policy direction (which may have picked up some
young "JobKeeper" and "JobSeeker" social welfare votes).
So it could be said the Labor Opposition Leader Albanese remains popular,
but only just and by a decreased projected majority. It is possible the previous Labor Opposition Leader Bill Shorten may snatch the Labor leadership back in time for the expected 2022 Federal Election or may wait for Albanese to lose the 2022
Election then Shorten will take the helm again as Labor leader.
Pete
2 comments:
There are a couple of things that (hopefully) those in power take notice of.
1/ Prime Ministers should never take overseas holidays. I can’t work out why Scott Morison could have thought that this was ok. Prime Ministers can take overseas trips but not holidays. Where was the Deputy Prime Minister in all this? Prime Ministers do not get holidays. Breaks - yes, holidays - no. Please note : holidays to New Zealand do not count.
2/ Very nice people do not become Prime Minister. This is a known fact. Albanese, just like Beasley before him, will never become Prime Minister. Then again, they will always be remembered fondly, when those particularly not so nice people are long forgotten. There are worse things than being remembered as a nice bloke.
3/ The Shooters party (most shooters also fish & 99% of farmers own a gun) are really just fed up national party voters. The National party is too busy being part of (or trying to be) government to wake up to the fact that grass roots voters have moved on & want them to stand up, cross the floor - whatever it takes (cabinet solidarity is a convention, not a law). Stop being a sudo Liberal party. If a government falls because of it - so what. You may not be in government, but you will be re-elected (& if you aren’t elected, you can’t be in government). Indeed, it’s easier to get a minority government to do what you want than being a minor part of a majority government.
4/ Rural people are not city people. They hate politics (the game), have long memories & don’t care what others think of their actions. Then again, they are far more likely to stop & help change that flat tyre.
Hi Anonymous (writing about the Eden-Monaro By-election)
Written for the (no pay) Western Embassies and now for you more publically :)
1/ True "Prime Ministers should never take overseas holidays." Well not "officially" at least. Because Morrison won the "unwinnable" 2019 Federal Election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Australian_federal_election Morrison gave himself the "right" to have a holiday.
I also suspect his wife and kids demanded it.
"Where was the Deputy Prime Minister in all this?" You have touched on a major problem. The Deputy Prime Minister then-and-now is a "stuffed shirt" numbers man who heads the National Party coalition partner. The Nationals are an essential partner the ruling Liberal despair in knowing they must keep on good terms with to govern.
2/ Yes Albanese now (like Kim Beazley years ago) is an uninspiring Labor leader. "Nice" isn't enough, indeed. Labor's election strategy is more the hope the overall-popular-Liberals will make major mistakes (and/or fall out with the Nationals) by 2022, than Labor winning on charismatic, better policy, merit.
3/ The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP) are more than disillusioned "national party voters". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooters,_Fishers_and_Farmers_Party
Australian politics for decades has been balance-of-power determined by minor parties (like the Greens, the now gone Democrats and increasingly the SFFP) who have preference power over the major parties.
The Nationals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Party_of_Australia have long represented non-Small-Medium Australian Farmer interests. Instead the politically unstable National Party has been representing big agri-businesses like protecting large Darling River water stealers, billionaire Arab horse stud owners and even Chinese government owned farms. Under the table political donations are a fact of life for the 3 big parties (Liberals, Nationals and Labor) eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Party_of_Australia#Donors
The SFFP are more than just small-medium farmers and small town voters but many center-right people dissatisfied with All of the 3 big parties. The SFFP recognise their votes and preferences would be wasted if they dilivered them to a big party that already had the highest number of First Preference votes. A well directed preference strategy, as practiced by SFFP, is inching towards holding the balance of power in future years.
4/ No. "Rural people" love politics, because it can give them disproportionate political power compared to the majority of people in the cities.
Regards
Pete
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