November 14, 2019

Submarine Choices for the Phillipines

A comment by jaimecenturion101 indicates the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ Horizon Modernization Program saw a need for between 2 and 6 submarines from the 2020s. In 2018 current Philippine Navy chief, Vice Admiral Robert Empedrad pushed hard for (conventional diesel-electric) submarines to be included in medium term plans.

 

rhk111 on November 10, 2019 made interesting comments on Submarine Matters article South Korea Could Export Submarines to Philippines and an additional comment of November 13, 2019 under article "Any US Block on Philippines Buying Submarines a Big Mistake". rhk111’s November 13 comment indicated the Philippine President had little constitutional power if the President had any inclination to source submarines from China or Russia. The Philippine military (including Philippine Navy (PN) is reputedly still mostly pro-US.

 

Pete comment – This pro-US orientation/tradition might undergo change if the US imposed pro-Human Rights embargoes/punishments on the Philippines. If the PN were starved of Western submarine choices because the US imposed a ban on any US parts in these submarines then a PN preference for non-US parts subs (ie. Russian or Chinese) may grow.

 

China - Yuan variant S20s

 

China has been marketing an export Yuan class variant known as the S20 in the Asian region with one being bought by the Thai Navy under the designation S26T and two expected to be bought. Eight S20s will be sold (or perhaps virtually gifted) to the Pakistani Navy.


The high cost of submarines means that the relationship between seller country and buyer is often highly political. For example the 8 x S20s to being sold by China to Pakistan has alliance cementing aspects being a naval means to contain/encircle their mutual adversary, India.

However, as China has probably been the main adversary of the Philippines in South China Seas frictions one would think it unlikely the Philippines would buy submarines from China, but surprises can happen. For example China could offer subs at very low “foot in the door” prices.

 

Russia – Improved Kilo submarines

 

Russia successfully exported Kilo submarines up to the mid 1990s and then an Improved Kilo class development (Project 636) exported since 1996. China received 10 Improved Kilos, Vietnam (6) and Algeria (4).


Russia’s export of 6 Improved Kilos to Vietnam provided an opportunity to increase Russian influence. One reason being many Vietnamese submarine naval officers, petty officers and especially engineers were stationed in Russia for years to learn Russian in order to become proficient at all the Improved Kilos procedures. These Russian influences may be carried over to Cam Ranh main base back in Vietnam - see this article from Vietnam.

A large number of naval, civilian political and economic factors go into submarine selection. Reasons include the vast costs of purchasing, training, crewing and maintenance involved.

Another major selection criteria What does the PN want to do with the submarines?

Often the main use in peacetime is surveillance of non-state actors eg. Islamic terrorist-separatists (in southern Philippines?) smugglers, private army "wars" and illegal fishing boats, surveillance of adversary navies (Chinese Navy and others nosing around “West Philippine Sea” islands with undersea oil/gas potential) and to create doubt in adversary navies’ captains if they decide to trespass in Philippine waters.

Submarine uses in wartime still includes surveillance and threat creating doubt, a sub’s torpedoes and anti-ship missiles can sink enemy ships, expediting naval blockades, a sub’s land attack missiles can hit cities and high value military targets, also a sub laying mines in-near enemy harbours/bases.

Potential Western sellers to the Philippines and some key strength, weaknesses include:

Franch Naval Group’s (NG’s) Scorpenes

A mature export design (so development costs long paid for) as it has been sold since the 1990s to 4 customers including Malaysia. Generous commissions possible (as in Malaysia). If the PN wants AIP (especially useful for longer term submerged surveillance missions sitting on the seabed) then NG’s second generation AIP may be almost ready (but such AIP may be expensive due to recent development costs). NG is French Government owned so corporate structure likely to remain stable. Can often speak English.

Germany’s TKMS – Type 209s and 214s

Could offer the Type 209 (no AIP) or Type 214 (with a mature AIP though expensive). Type 209s and 214s are mature designs sold to many export customers. Corruption opportunities generally low. TKMS corporate structure may be subject to change in medium-long term. German staff might generally speak English.

South Korea’s (SK’s) DSME

Can offer ChangBogo Type 209 variant. Mature design. Nine sold to SK Navy. Three have been delivered to Indonesia with 3 more on order – all as Nagapasa-class. Maturity, established sales record and known efficiency of SK shipping industry tend to indicate on-time, on-budget. Medium corruption opportunities?

SK also builds Type 214 variants (with AIP) for SK Navy. But SK has no licence to export Germany’s highly valuable mature Fuel Cell AIP technology.

DSME 2000 concept export submarine – too early to assess, but purchase cost would be high for first customer(s) as it would be a new submarine design incorporating new Lithium-ion Battery technology. English proficiency may be low.

Sweden’s Saab-Kockums - A26 Submarines

A new design though influenced by Sweden’s Gotland class. Two A26s (called Blekinge-class) being built for Swedish Navy. Has mature Stirling AIP. Low corruption opportunities. With just 2 x A26s not yet built Sweden’s development costs likely to boost price for any initial export customer(s). Though Sweden originally built subs for cold water Baltic Sweden successfully modified Challenger and Archer class subs for warm water/air Singaporean Navy. Swedish staff generally speak good English.

Spain’s Navantia S-80 Plus

First S-80 Plus (Isaac Peral) class not yet completed for Spanish Navy after a troubled development. Its AIP immature as it has not been tested operationally. Some of prolonged development costs likely to be passed on to export customer(s). Includes some sensitive US combat system components (and Harpoon missiles) that may not be exportable from Spain. Navantia staff may speak English and definitely Spanish.

Japan? or other exporters (eg. Taiwan?) unknown.

Pete

27 comments:

GhalibKabir said...

You got that one point 100% right.. the S-20s for the pakistanis or PN will be given free as the pakistanis are useful underlings for nuisance value and they give unfettered access to critical port and communication facilities... also maintenance costs will be extracted by China (as they say in the infra world, low capex entails high opex usually and the PN will pay as the military controls the purse anyway) (I wonder how well Stirling AIP will do in warm Arabian Sea waters)

their naval pipeline is amazing considering the pauper like situation they are in. 4 frigates with 40 VLS each, 4 corvettes with 16 VLS each and 8 submarines and MPA aircraft etc.

alms for arms..I do hope the next set of DDGs India builds have at least 64 to 80 VLS (though as the admirals say, 48 is usually enough )

Nicky said...

Hi pete,
Here's my take on this. China's S20 is out because the Philippines have beef with them and it won't go well with the Philippine people. France's Scorpene's is too costly and Just look at how much Brazil and India had to pay for their Scorpene's because that will indicate how much the Philippines will have to pay out. Germany's Type 212 & 214 is out because Germany will likely cave into EU and block the sale to the Philippines over Human rights issue. Sweden's A-26 is out because Swedish Government doesn't export Military gear to countries with questionable Human rights record and with the Philippines piss poor Human rights issue, that may block them from buying Submarines from Sweden and Germany. With South Korea, that all depends on if the US will allow it because South Korean subs have US components on them and the US Government has VETO power in the sale and they could veto the sale over human rights issue, if the US Congress pushes it. Which leads to Russia's Improved Kilo class SSK and I believe that could be an attractive option for the Philippines because Russian Military gear doesn't come with Political and social strings attached that is common on Western Military gear. On top of that, the Price of the Improved Kilo class SSK is much more attractive than all the other SSK sub builder.

Tri-ring said...

I believe there is another option, tie-up with Taiwan to co-develop the sub Taiwan is presently developing.

Pete said...

Hi Tri-ring

Please note I already mentioned the Taiwan option at the bottom of the article.

I add that co-development would be risky for the Philippines. Neither Taiwan nor the Philippines have ever built a submarine.

Also China may in future block, with economic sanctions, any UK/European companies trying to supply components to Taiwan's submarine project.

Cheers

Peete

jaimecenturion101 said...

Because of their experience with FN who refused to service defense products brought from them, the AFP is steering wide from EU nations who have this nasty propensity to deny defense sales to nations with perceived human rights violations (Germany, Sweden, Belgium etc.). France, Italy and Spain might agree to sell (as Navy officials have sounded off their preference for French subs). South Korea and Turkey have also been identified. As regards to Russia, although generous loan packages have been offered Navy officials were quoted as saying Russian Kilos were big and expensive to operate for the Navy's needs. However, as you mentioned, should the US decide to oppose any western sale of subs to the Philippines, then we may be seeing S-26T or Kilos flying the Philippine flag.

Mr. Kowalski said...

Another option-- work with Taiwan to build a non AIP 250 ton subs, a bunch of em. A good starting point would be Chile's Crocodilo project: http://www.hisutton.com/Crocodile%20250%20midget%20submarine.html

Tri-ring said...

Pete

You only need a handful of people to introduce development of anything if you select the right people.
Basically you need an overall project manager, a hull and compartment balance designer who can balance and oversee the hull and a construction manager which can oversee and coach steel bending method required in constructing the hull and last a wielding specialist to coach wielding method all in abundance as retirees from MHI, KHI and other companies that specializes in developing in constructing warships.
If I remember correctly the US had actively been involved in the Taiwan sub development project and recruited retired Japanese engineers in this endeavor.
If that is the case it may take some time but it the first sub will no doubt be launched by the next decade with some limitations but will be most efficient to patrols the seas.

Pete said...

Hi GhalibKabir [your November 14, 2019 at 6:00 PM]

Yes Pakistan with large amounts of US aid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Dispute_over_$300_million_of_military_aid_being_postponed_by_Department_of_Defense

and Saudi discount pricing has deep pockets to "buy" S20 subs and surface ships upfront.

But as you say it comes with strings attached in providing Chinese access/building to port and comms facilities.

Also China can put the heat on Pakistan on spares and deep maintenance for the S20s.

On Stirling in warm waters - Singapore had their Archer class subs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer-class_submarine upgraded with Stirling AIP perhaps implying Stirling may perform OK in warm waters.

Against this Japans newest Soryus have deleted Stirling (in favour of LIBs) which may suggest Stirling did not perform well in the down toward Luzon (warm waters) southern leg of the Soryus' patrol line.

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi Nicky

I agree it would be irrational and risky for the Philippines to buy S20s or other submarine types off China.

France's Scorpene (without AIP) may be inexpensive because they are a mature (development money already paid) design and Naval Group may want to make the Phils another southeast Asian customer (in addition to Malaysia).

Germany's Type 212 & 214 (both with AIP) would be expensive but a small Type 209/1100 tonnes (no AIP) may be inexpensive. Germany has sold subs to Turkey and Egypt so cannot be that senstive about human rights.

Sweden's with the A-26 (likely expensive) or much cheaper used, but well maintained, Gotland class https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotland-class_submarine may be competitive. Though Sweden can be human rights sensentive. The Australian Army remembers how Sweden embargoed resupply of Carl Gustaf recoilless rifle, anti-bunker rockets to the Australian Army during the Vietnam War. See https://www.5rar.asn.au/narrative/memoirs.htm "The 84mm Carl Gustaf Anti-Tank weapon. 84mm carl gustav anti-tank weapon...Manufactured in Sweden, we were unable to use them because the Swedes would not provide ammunition, as they did not support the war in Vietnam."

South Korea happily exports Chang Bogo Type 209 variants to occasionally human-rights questionable Indonesia (noting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Timor_genocide ) so SK exporting to the Philippines should not be that US thorny.

I agree on the risk that the Philippines may be so sensitive to any US human rights hesitation that the Phils may opt for cut-price Russian Improved Kilo class SSK's with fewer Political strings attached. South Korean Chang Bogos may be able to beat Russia on price.

Cheers

Pete

Pete said...

Hi jaimecenturion101 [at November 15, 2019 at 9:29 PM]

I take it "FN" is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FN_Herstal the Belgian firearms manufacturer.

So if the Armed Forces of the Philippinese (AFP) "is steering wide from EU nations who have this nasty propensity to deny defense sales to nations with perceived human rights violations (Germany, Sweden, Belgium etc.). France, Italy and Spain might agree to sell (as Navy officials have sounded off their preference for French subs)."

That puts France's Naval Group Scorpene in a good sales position.

Meanwhile Italy may well need German permission to export mainly German intellectual property (and AIP expensive) Type 212 (Italian Todaro class) submarines. Italy's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sauro-class_submarine may be cheap with the last 2 launched in 1991 and 1992 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sauro-class_submarine#List_of_boats .

Spains new S-80 Plus subs have not yet been completed, hence expensive and risky. However Spain's 2 (completed in 1985) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agosta-class_submarine "Galerna" class variants may be cheap.

Yes South Korea [Chang Bogo/209s - a good chance] and Turkey [with German permission may be a low cost exporter of Type 209s and 214s - may have a chance.]

Interesting your "As regards to Russia, although generous loan packages have been offered Navy officials were quoted as saying Russian Kilos were big and expensive to operate for the Navy's needs."

"However, as [Pete] mentioned, should the US decide to oppose any western sale of subs to the Philippines, then we may be seeing [Chines S-20] S-26T [maybe too risky or have a strange logic buying off the Philippines' most likely strategic competitor!] or Kilos flying the Philippine flag."

Cheers

Pete

Pete said...

Hi "Mr. Kowalski" [at November 15, 2019 at 11:07 PM]

It is already known Taiwan is building medium sized ie. 1,000+ tonne submarines. Taiwan has no experience building the mini (250 ton) subs, that you suggest, or larger subs.

But South Korea (scroll fifth way down https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/04/south-korean-submarines-3000-ton-kss.html ) built two Dolgorae class mini subs (175 tons) in 1990-91. With those two decommissioned recently in 2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolgorae-class_submarine . There is a remote possibility Philippine crews may spend time on old Dolgorae mini-subs on the way to MORE PROBABLY BUYING Chang Bogo (Type 209 (1200 tonne variant?) medium subs.

Most democratic countries train for 2-3 years on the medium sized 1,000+ ton (building country's) submarine types that they contract to buy - while their 2 or so subs are being built.

Submarines of less than 200 to 400 tons have no demonstrated market these days. Subs of less than 200 tons may be Special Forces subs or very short range.

For the dictatorship, near-suicide, mini-subs see:

- North Korea's Sang-O, Yuno and Yugo class mini-subs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_ships_of_the_Korean_People%27s_Navy#Submarines

- with some technology sharing with Iran's Ghadir and again Yugo class mini-subs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy#Submarines

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi Tri-ring [at November 17, 2019 at 9:54 PM]

You have described what Taiwan is doing, yes US, Japanese and quiet more sensitive UK/European help?.

But your simple sketch of what a multi-Billion dollar submarine program is

doesn't make it a cheap export to Philippines proposition without program risk or high chance China may block it risk.

And can the Philippines wait the 10+ years Taiwan may need to produce export variants?

Cheers

Pete

Pete said...

The possibility that South Korea may become the successful submarine supplier to the Philippines is strengthened by the New South Korea-Philippines Shipbuilding Pact.

See Prashanth Parameswaran's, The Diplomat (paysite) article of November 20, 2019 at https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/whats-in-the-new-south-korea-philippines-shipbuilding-pact/ here is part:

"What’s in the New South Korea-Philippines Shipbuilding Pact? The new agreement highlights the continued inroads both countries are making in this realm.

[In early November 2019] the Philippines and South Korea signed a new agreement related to a potential purchase of frigates.

...the aspect that unsurprisingly receives the most attention [in SK-Phils defense relations] is defense equipment, whether it be in the form of deals for fighter jets or frigates, with some deals constituting among the top line items in ongoing Philippine defense modernization continuing under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

[In early November 2019] this aspect of the South Korea-Philippines defense relationship was in the headlines again with the signing of a new agreement between [SK and Phils]. The Philippine defense ministry and South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) inked a pact that related to a new...deal [for two new corvettes for the Philippines].

The memorandum of understanding...occurred at [HHI's] shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea on the sidelines of the launch of the Philippine Navy’s second new missile capable frigate the BRP Antonio Luna..."

Pete Comment: with SK building 2 frigates and 2 future corvettes for the Phils, will 2 or 3 DSME submarines for the Phils follow?

GhalibKabir said...

I would say the Type-209 version that SK builds would be faster to deliver.. I think the SK and Indonesian subs still use the SUT Torpedo and the Harpoon UGM 84... An upgraded Chang Bogo firing DM2A4s and the Haesong ASCM from Torpedo tubes might be even better....

Pete said...

Hi GhalibKabir

Yep I foresee probable finalists for the Philippines submarine competition being:

French Naval Group's Scorpene

and

South Korea's Chang Bogo (Type 209)

Then there are used submarines - perhaps Swedeen's used https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotland-class_submarine or perhaps Sweden's 2 Södermanland class (ie Södermanland and Östergötland)

But is maybe years of headlines, horse-trading and haggling before a winner is chosen in the 2020s.

Regards

Pete

GhalibKabir said...

new SK 209s or the 2nd hand subs from Sweden make more sense (though these don't have missile firing capability)... the French sell to anybody but demand top dollar and do not offer credit lines etc... most likely Scorpenes or Marlins or whatever DCNS calls them these days will stretch the budget of the Philippines Navy a lot...
(the 'official' Indian budget for the Scorpenes is over budget by 500 million dollars already and newer DE subs 'Make in India' deals are getting quoted at 6.5 billion $ for 6 subs.. this with an extensive building and MRO industry in place...)

Philippines might need to shell out 2-3 billion $ (+ training/other costs as the navy trains) for 2 subs as it is just going to possibly start employing subs in the regular navy

Pete said...

Hi GhalibKabir [at November 25, 2019 at 7:34 PM]

I understand Naval Group has been pitching a small non-AIP Scorpene (1,200 tonnes submerged?) at the Philippine Navy. As this Scorpene model would be smaller than previous Scorpenes there may be development costs that the Philippines would eventually have to pay for.

"Marlin"? an old DCN/DCNS concept of a Scorpene featuring MESMA AIP? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marlin-class_submarine

Marlin being pitched at India to take on Pakistan's MESMA AIP Agosta-90Bs? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agosta-class_submarine#Variants

The Philippines will need to anticipate paying project costs of one $US Billion per new West European submarine.

Regards

Pete

GhalibKabir said...

A smaller Scorpene version is certainly possible...but frankly I don't see the point of the Philippines having just 2 expensive token subs.... Vietnam, Phils and Indonesia need a dozen subs each to make China invest or treat them with some deference in the SCS. 2 subs or even 4 subs will be swatted away... I think only Vietnam has 6 Kilos and Indonesia will have 6 209s in some years....

In fact, for the regional nations to have any chance of solving this 'nine-dash' sea grab, a regional naval tie-up will be a sina qua non. 4 Singaporean Archer Class, 2 Malaysian Scorpenes, 12 Vietnamese and Indonesian SSKs along with 2-4 Philippines SSKs + ASuW, ASW assets and Naval Air arms can pose some sort of deterrence against the PLAN... individually they will be swatted away like flies. Australia lending its muscle to the regional tie-up will also greatly help...

but large differences implies China will have ample chances to make a total pig's breakfast of any regional naval initiative (The Thais are off the market as you can see)

PS: Marlin has been basically discarded and any post-Navantia tie-up changes to the Scorpene have been managed in toto by DCNS.... pakistan could not cough up cash and hence ditched DCNS and went to suckle at the familiar military aid teats of China to get 8 S-20s (Type 039s)

PPS: Short of China running itself out of financial steam...we are likely to see the continued build up of a terrible and harmful naval behemoth in Asia.

Nicky said...

HI Pete
I did a similar blog post on Submarine options for the Philippines and I boiled it down to this. It's either the older Chang Bogo class Submarines, Oysahio class Submarines or the Newer improved Kilo class Submarines. The Philippines could sweet talk South Korea on unloading their Older Chang Bogo class Submarines because they are still building their much newer Type 214 aka the Sohn Woynil class Submarine and the Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine. The Older Chang Bogo's would give the Philippines a starting point for Submarines. The Oysahio class Submarines are one option the Philippines can have a Nice long talk with Japan on because they were built in the late 90’s and the boats are routinely retired early to make room for newer ones such as the Sōryū-class submarine and I believe that if the Philippines can sweet talk Japan in loaning the Oysahio class Submarines, it would give them a viable 2nd hand submarine to work on with a pipeline to the Sōryū-class submarine.

Here's my blog post on it.
https://nickysworld.wordpress.com/2019/10/07/philippine-navy-considering-the-french-built-scorpene-class-submarine/

https://nickysworld.wordpress.com/2017/08/27/the-philippine-submarine-program/

Pete said...

Hi GhalibKabir [at November 26, 2019 at 5:49 PM]

I don't think any Southeast Asian (SEA) country could afford a dozen subs except Indonesia.

I'm sad to say the SEA nations have no real tradition of forming substantial alliances amongst themselves. Instead its co-existence with some disputes regarding landborders, sea-zones and rival claims South China Sea islands.

So China can rest easy that no SEA nation combined submarine (or surface ship) fleet will confront it. China has cohesive strategies rather than SEA nations' largely US dependent hopeful strategies.

Also China has superior weapons systems - nuclear SLBM and SLCMs of course - as well ship/sub killing DF-21Ds and DF-26 intermediate range missiles and long range bombers.

Australia may be working with SEA nation Singapore in a submarine chokepoint strategy. Singapore being an outlying member of the Quadrilateral Understading and it uses some Australian territory for training bases.

Thanks for the background on Marlin.

I would say China will double its number of Yuan (or better) SSKs and and nuclear subs over the next 10 years.

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi Nicky [at November 28, 2019 at 4:04 AM]

I agree SK's new build or even 2nd hand Chang Bogos (Type 209 variants) may be competitive for the Philippines (Phils) selection.

Haven't heard anything about Japan offering Oyashio or Soryu class subs to the Phils. One reason Japan incorporates extremely (national security) sensitive pressure hull steel in those classes. Also those classes include much sensitive (non-exportable) US combat system gear eg. software/hardware for Harpoon missiles and Type 89 torpedos which are much like US top of the line Mark 48 torpedos, maybe sonar sensors as well. Basically the US would be reluctant to permit such sensitive gear being passed on to the now unpredictable Phils. eg. with the Phils now pivoting a tad to the Russians. The Duterte-Putin relationship worries some serious US State Department, USN and DoD officers.

Yes new or cheaper old Kilos from Russia are possibilities - showing how unprdictable the Phils is becoming.

I think Germany/TKMS might like withhold approval for SK to export mainly German developed SK Son Won-Il Type 214 Class subs (which have FC AIP) to the Phils. After TKMS lost out to SK in exporting Chang Bogo (209s) to Indonesia TKMS would be reluctant to give permission. Instead TKMS has been talking to Turkey to make Turkey the licenced builder-exporter of Type 214s to third countries.

Thanks for your blog info.

Cheers

Pete

GhalibKabir said...

Another reason the Japanese will never be able to manage a SSK transfer, The MRO support, assembly etc are something they have extreme difficulty handling with the buyer country. Imagine, India which has built SSBNs, maintained SSNs and has 35+ years experience in locally assembling/partly manufacturing SSKs with extensive MRO facilities, could not make any headway on the Soryu class as part of the 75 project.

Plus those subs are frightfully expensive and there is no way anyone sweet talking them into even parting with the older Oyashios. I say with all due respect when I say, A nation with no experience handling SSKs will not able to manage even second hand Oyashios. Those Japanese subs have some of the best sonar suites and weapons load out there and are big at 4,000 tons submerged.

Nicky said...

Hi Pete,
That's why in my blog post, I boiled it down between South Korea's used Chang Bogo class SSK or Russia's Improved Kilo class SSK or their older Kilo class SSK such as the 877 version. The reason why I think the Philippines can talk to South Korea on the Chang Bogo's as a first option is because all their Chang Bogo's were built in late 90's and early 2000's and their earliest Chang Bogo's are reaching 30 years old. At the same time South Korea is building more Son Won-Il U214 Class Submarine and the Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine in Batch 1 & 2. Which would mean in the near future South Korea would start to unload those older Chang Bogo's and the Philippines would likely be the first ones.

As far as Kilos and improved Kilo class SSK. Look at how much Vietnam had to shell out for their Improved Kilo class SSK and Submarine program. That should clue you in as to how much the Philippines would have to Shell out for a Submarine program similar to Vietnam. And I think if the Philippines do get an Improved Kilo class SSK, they would get the Much Newer versions than the Chinese. Here's a blog post on Vietnam's Kilo class SSK. https://medium.com/indo-pacific-geomill/vietnamese-navy-kilo-submarines-77ce5dc97b0b

GhalibKabir said...

One issue with the Kilos is that the Chinese know the in and out of the Kilos (down to the detail of sound signature when periscope is put up etc.), so in a shallower SCS, a Kilo might not have a long survival time against Chinese Type-039s or SSNs... or even ASW frigates..all have the signatures programmed in and can probably lock in quick...

On balance, 3-4 Type-209 may offer better capabilities and have a better survival chance. The cost however will likely be steep (even 3-4 second hand upgraded subs will cost close to 2 billion dollars one off)

With annual maintenance costs, assumed at say half of the collins class at 60-65 millions USD a boat, the running costs can easily amount to 250 million US$ per year... Considering the PHP 29 billion budget for entire Philippines navy and similar 25 billion PHP (~490 million USD) for capital expenditure... even assimilating and running SSKs like 209s will be challenging (or for that matter any SSK, given the lack of infra)

Pete said...

Hi GhalibKabir [at November 29, 2019 at 2:52 PM]

Japan has built and managed car and other large equipment factories (Toyota, Mitsubishi etc) in other countries. So I think eventually Mitsubishi and/or Kawasaki could organize cheaper export specs submarine building overseas - if there are profits to be made. Already "retired" Mitsubishi and Kawasaki staff (now contractors) are helping the Taiwanese submarine project, to factory building and technology transfer extents unknown.

Very true. Japan is overhauling Oyashios, to extend their operational lives. This is to raise the rolling average number of submarines in Japan's fleet from the traditional 16 to 22. Japan has more Chinese, North and even South Korean subs to worry about.

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi Nicky [at November 30, 2019 at 2:33 AM]

Yes new or used Chang Bogos or Kilos for the Philippines are possible on technical merit grounds. Also depends on who provides the best soft loans and umm "commissions" (to Phil politicians, officials and naval officers). Saab, Naval Group and even Navantia should not be under-estimated as possible providers.

Also possible suppliers are the large Third Country used submarine market (eg. 3 or 4 of Norway's German built Ula class subs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ula-class_submarine maintained in good condition).

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi GhalibKabir [at December 6, 2019 at 6:30 PM]

Yes I agree, an opponent's own-use knowledge of a particular submarine class' sonar and broader radio-emission signatures, in all states, may influence the Philippines away from:

- Kilos (because China, Russia and Vietnam operate their own)

- Scorpenes (because Malaysia operates its own) and

- Chang Bogos (Type 209s) (because Indonesia and South Korea operate their own)

Soft loans and "commissions" may allay current Philippine selector concerns about upfront and running costs.

Also the Philippines could just buy a 1 or 2 token secondhand sub force and use it infrequently.

Regards

Pete